# Calix, Inc. (CALX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CALX · data as of 2026-10-29 15:10 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Calix, Inc. (CALX), nexqual.com/CALX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 37.89 (-0.75% today) · US market open, as of October 29, 2026 at 15:10 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 38.17 · day 37.66–38.35 · 52w 32.35–71.22 · market cap $2.39B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $1.11B, net income $51.2M (4.6% margin), free cash flow $85.4M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 46.6x (avg 154.2x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $3.8M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.86 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 62.33 (range 52–85).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -39.1% vs S&P 500 +13.2%; 5Y -39.5% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-02, EPS estimate USD 0.41, revenue estimate $304M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $679M | $868M | $1.04B | $832M | $1.00B | $1.11B |
| Gross profit | $357M | $435M | $518M | $454M | $568M | — |
| Operating income | $73.9M | $52.6M | $25.6M | -$43.0M | $21.0M | $61.2M |
| Net income | $238M | $41.0M | $29.3M | -$29.7M | $17.9M | $51.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.51 | $0.60 | $0.42 | -$0.45 | $0.26 | — |
| Free cash flow | $46.3M | $13.1M | $38.4M | $50.3M | $116M | $85.4M |
| Gross margin | 52.5% | 50.2% | 49.9% | 54.6% | 56.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 10.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% | -5.2% | 2.1% | 5.5% |
| Net margin | 35.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | -3.6% | 1.8% | 4.6% |
| Revenue growth | +25.5% | +27.7% | +19.8% | -20.0% | +20.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $204M | $242M | $220M | $297M | $388M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026)
P/E 46.6x · P/S 2.1x · P/FCF 27.9x · P/B 3.4x · FCF yield 3.58% · Earnings yield 2.15% · Buyback yield (TTM) 10.91%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 205.1x, Dec 2023 103.3x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Russo Carl | Director | 75,000 | $2.7M | 1.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-27 | Russo Carl | Director | 25,000 | $1.1M | 0.4% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.86 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 62.33 (low 52, high 85).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Rosenblatt | Maintained | Buy | $55 |
| 2026-07-22 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $65 → $58 |
| 2026-07-21 | Northland Capital Markets | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $52 |
| 2026-07-21 | Rosenblatt | Target lowered | Buy | $70 → $55 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -39.1% | -39.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.2% | +79.1% |
| Per year | -39.1% | -9.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.4% | 48.0% |
| Max drawdown | -51.6% (Oct 2025→Sep 2026) | -64.5% (Dec 2021→Apr 2024) |

## Peers (Software - Infrastructure)
DLO (DLocal Limited) USD 13.8 +0.22% · BLSH (Bullish) USD 28.65 -0.28% · CORZ (Core Scientific, Inc.) USD 14.71 -1.97% · RELY (Remitly Global, Inc.) USD 24.6 +1.36% · TENB (Tenable Holdings, Inc.) USD 50.98 +4.64% · BB (BlackBerry Limited) USD 9.3 -1.12%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CALX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CALX's own 10-K filed 2026-02-20 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1406666/000140666626000005/calx-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | ALLO Communications | "Our service provider customers include: ALLO Communications, LLC;" |
| Partner | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "Examples of these partners are Conexon, LLC, ePlus Technology, Inc., BroadEngagement (Refindable LLC business), Google LLC and GOCare™ (NuTEQ Solutions, LLC business)." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Appliance | $242.8M | 82.8% | +22.5% |
| Software and service | $50.5M | 17.2% | +15.5% |
| Total revenue | $293.3M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $277.7M | 94.7% | +26.8% |
| Americas ex U.S. | $8.2M | 2.8% | +39.7% |
| Europe | $4.9M | 1.7% | -68.3% |
| Rest of world | $2.5M | 0.8% | +76.4% |
| Total revenue | $293.3M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-27: 12% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-07-21).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.41 | $0.46 | -10.6% | $304.1M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.45 | $0.51 | -12.1% | $314.2M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.72 | $1.78 | -3.1% | $1.19B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.30 | $2.50 | -8.0% | $1.38B | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-02): ±13.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 62.9% | ±13.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 54.5% | ±16.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 47.4% | ±17.9% |
| 2027-02-19 | 113 | 49.6% | ±22.3% |
| 2027-04-16 | 169 | 49.1% | ±26.7% |
| 2027-05-21 | 204 | 49.9% | ±29.7% |
| 2027-08-20 | 295 | 47.5% | ±33.8% |
| 2027-11-19 | 386 | 48.1% | ±39.0% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.47 | $0.40 | Beat +17.5% | -4.3% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.40 | $0.37 | Beat +8.1% | -17.3% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.39 | $0.38 | Beat +2.6% | -16.6% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.44 | $0.34 | Beat +29.4% | +10.1% |
| Jul 21, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +3.3% |
| Apr 21, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +11.1% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +7.8% |
| Oct 28, 2024 | — | — | — | — | -0.7% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 8-K | Other material event — “On October 8, 2026, Calix, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that its board of directors increased the Company's authorization to repurchase its common stock by an additional $100 million under the existing stock repurchase program. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. Such information shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and is not incorporated by reference into any…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1406666/000140666626000038/0001406666-26-000038-index.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | Schedule 13G/A | BlackRock, Inc.: 16.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1406666/000201238326003182/0002012383-26-003182-index.htm |
| 2026-07-21 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 27, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1406666/000140666626000034/0001406666-26-000034-index.htm |
| 2026-07-20 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1406666/000140666626000028/0001406666-26-000028-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.