# CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CAVA · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA), nexqual.com/CAVA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 54.68 (-0.58% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 55 · day 53.37–55.84 · 52w 43.41–98.79 · market cap $6.39B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 12, 2026): revenue $1.37B, net income $66.3M (4.8% margin), free cash flow $49.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 96.4x (avg 138.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 11 Form 4 filings, $279M; 11 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($279M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 2 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $1.1M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.25 on a 1–5 scale) (28 analysts), mean target USD 82.63 (range 18–110).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -14.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +43.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.12, revenue estimate $359M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $500M | $564M | $729M | $964M | $1.18B | $1.37B |
| Gross profit | $82.2M | $98.0M | $180M | — | — | — |
| Operating income | -$52.8M | -$59.8M | $4.7M | $43.1M | $55.3M | $72.0M |
| Net income | -$37.4M | -$59.0M | $13.3M | $130M | $63.7M | $66.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$51.06 | -$44.41 | $0.21 | $1.10 | $0.54 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$52.9M | -$98.1M | -$41.7M | $52.9M | $26.1M | $49.0M |
| Gross margin | 16.4% | 17.4% | 24.7% | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | -10.5% | -10.6% | 0.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% |
| Net margin | -7.5% | -10.5% | 1.8% | 13.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% |
| Revenue growth | — | +12.8% | +29.2% | +32.3% | +22.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $140M | $39.1M | $332M | $366M | $393M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 12, 2026)
P/E 96.4x · P/S 4.7x · P/FCF 130.3x · P/B 7.6x · FCF yield 0.77% · Earnings yield 1.04%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 108.9x, Dec 2024 102.4x, Dec 2023 205.3x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Kochevar Karen | Director | 10,000 | $900K | 76.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-15…2026-06-17 | Costanza Kelly | Chief People Officer | 15,360 | $1.4M | 13.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-15 | Schulman Brett | CEO and President | 33,174 | $3.0M | 2.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-15 | Tolivar Tricia K. | Chief Financial Officer | 4,969 | $444K | 2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-15 | Phillips Adam David | Chief Accounting Officer | 757 | $68K | 10% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-15 | Xenohristos Theodoros | Chief Concept Officer | 3,252 | $291K | 0.9% | No | Routine (traded in Jun each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-15 | Artal Participations S.A R.L. | Director | 3,000,000 | $271M | 31.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-12 | Phillips Adam David | Chief Accounting Officer | 4,664 | $423K | 38% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-21 | Phillips Adam David | Chief Accounting Officer | 5,181 | $400K | 35.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-21 | Costanza Kelly | Chief People Officer | 10,010 | $799K | 8.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-11 | Xenohristos Theodoros | Chief Concept Officer | 9,044 | $721K | 2.6% | No | Routine (traded in Jun each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
6 purchases, $1.1M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Kadow Joseph John | CLO & Secretary | 1,000 | $50K | 49.96 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-31 | Thompson Douglas W. | Chief Operations Officer | 6,500 | $432K | 66.52 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-03 | Kadow Joseph John | CLO & Secretary | 1,000 | $70K | 70 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-29 | Thompson Douglas W. | Chief Operations Officer | 2,500 | $195K | 77.9 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-29 | Kadow Joseph John | CLO & Secretary | 1,000 | $79K | 79 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-26 | Thompson Douglas W. | Chief Operations Officer | 4,000 | $318K | 79.45 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.25 on a 1–5 scale), 28 analysts; mean target USD 82.63 (low 18, high 110).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $90 → $85 |
| 2026-10-22 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $79 → $66 |
| 2026-10-21 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $85 → $78 |
| 2026-10-08 | Melius Research | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | $95 |
| 2026-09-18 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $85 → $80 |
| 2026-09-17 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $95 → $85 |
| 2026-09-16 | Seaport Global | Initiated | Buy | $58 |
| 2026-08-13 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Neutral | $84 → $75 |
| 2026-08-13 | Guggenheim | Target lowered | Buy | $100 → $95 |
| 2026-08-12 | Roth Capital | Target lowered | Buy | $106 → $95 |
| 2026-08-12 | Wolfe Research | Target raised | Outperform | $79 → $82 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $85 → $70 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2023-06-12) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -14.9% | +43.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -14.9% | +11.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 59.4% | 58.5% |
| Max drawdown | -48.9% (Apr 2026→Sep 2026) | -68.7% (Dec 2024→Nov 2025) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
JMKE (Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.) USD 17.69 +0.17% · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor) USD 112.44 -1.70% · BROS (Dutch Bros Inc.) USD 41.75 -1.21% · EAT (Brinker International, Inc.) USD 190.11 +1.09% · DPZ (Domino's Pizza Inc) USD 317.7 +2.11% · TXRH (Texas Roadhouse, Inc.) USD 172.78 +2.96%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CAVA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CAVA's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026011296/cava-20251228.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | ByteDance | "Paid media includes platforms such as Google, Instagram, TikTok, influencer and creator partnerships, and out-of-home advertising." |
| Partner | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "Paid media includes platforms such as Google, Instagram, TikTok, influencer and creator partnerships, and out-of-home advertising." |
| Partner | Meta Platforms (META) | "For example, we maintain Facebook, Instagram, X, and TikTok accounts, among other accounts, and we have partnered, and expect to continue to partner, with social media influencers who promote our brand and may also produ…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-07-12)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurant revenue | $365.4M | 99.2% | +31.3% |
| CPG revenue and other | $3.0M | 0.8% | +26.9% |
| Total revenue | $368.4M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-11)

- "A reconciliation of the forward-looking fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to net income cannot be provided without unreasonable effort because of the inherent difficulty of accurately forecasting the occurrence and financial impact of the various adjusting items necessary for such reconciliation that have not yet occurred, are out of our control, or cannot be reasonably predicted."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.12 | $0.14 | -11.0% | $359.4M | 25 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.03 | $0.03 | -8.4% | $337.2M | 24 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.54 | $0.55 | -1.7% | $1.50B | 27 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.74 | $0.75 | -1.2% | $1.82B | 27 |