# Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CBRL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL), nexqual.com/CBRL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 67.31 (+2.37% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 65.75 · day 65–67.56 · 52w 24.85–70.28 · market cap $1.50B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 31, 2026): revenue $3.32B, net income $31.7M (1.0% margin), free cash flow $88.4M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 47.5x (avg 30.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 16.3x, net debt $301M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $182K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($182K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.22 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 50.71 (range 44–60).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +87.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -37.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-12-09, EPS estimate USD -0.11, revenue estimate $815M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.27B | $3.44B | $3.47B | $3.48B | $3.32B | $3.32B |
| Gross profit | $2.22B | $2.32B | $2.38B | $2.40B | $2.29B | — |
| Operating income | $153M | $121M | $45.1M | $55.0M | -$12.5M | -$12.5M |
| Net income | $132M | $99.0M | $40.9M | $46.4M | $31.7M | $31.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.67 | $4.45 | $1.83 | $2.06 | $1.40 | — |
| Free cash flow | $107M | $123M | $40.7M | $59.8M | $88.4M | $88.4M |
| Gross margin | 67.9% | 67.2% | 68.7% | 69.0% | 69.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Net margin | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Revenue growth | +15.8% | +5.4% | +0.8% | +0.4% | -4.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $45.1M | $25.1M | $12.0M | $39.6M | $36.5M | — |
| Total debt | $423M | $415M | $477M | $485M | $337M | — |
Fiscal years end Jul. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 31, 2026)
P/E 47.5x · P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 16.3x · EV/Sales 0.5x · P/FCF 17.0x · P/B 3.1x · FCF yield 5.88% · Earnings yield 2.11% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.54% · Net debt $301M · EV $1.81B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jul 2026 40.1x, Aug 2025 29.0x, Aug 2024 21.6x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Roberts Donna | SVP, Chief HR Officer | 3,500 | $182K | 7.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.22 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 50.71 (low 44, high 60).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Citigroup | Target raised | Sell | $42 → $44 |
| 2026-09-21 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $37 → $46 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $50 → $60 |
| 2026-07-21 | Citigroup | Target raised | Sell | $34 → $42 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +87.6% | -37.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +88.0% | -8.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 56.7% | 49.5% |
| Max drawdown | -31.9% (Oct 2025→Dec 2025) | -78.8% (Nov 2021→Dec 2025) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) USD 8.02 -0.87% · BH (Biglari Holdings Inc.) USD 395.33 -4.58% · WEN (Wendy's Company (The)) USD 6.57 +4.62% · BJRI (BJ's Restaurants, Inc.) USD 58.79 +3.54% · SG (Sweetgreen, Inc.) USD 10.22 +0.59% · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) USD 12.46 -3.78%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CBRL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-07-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurant | $698.5M | 82.2% | -2.7% |
| Retail | $150.8M | 17.8% | +0.7% |
| Total revenue | $849.3M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-09-23)

- "The Company provided the following outlook for fiscal 2027: ·"

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $-0.11 | $-0.43 | -73.7% | $814.9M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $0.87 | $0.62 | +41.2% | $899.6M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-07-31) | $1.97 | $0.67 | +195.2% | $3.38B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-07-31) | $2.20 | $1.16 | +89.8% | $3.45B | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-18 (includes earnings 2026-12-09): ±17.8%; earnings reaction alone ±9.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 48.8% | ±11.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 56.5% | ±17.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 54.9% | ±21.0% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 55.8% | ±27.9% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 55.1% | ±34.6% |