# Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CEG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), nexqual.com/CEG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 255.21 (-5.74% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 270.74 · day 253.37–269.02 · 52w 228.63–406.04 · market cap $90.4B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $31.3B, net income $3.46B (11.1% margin), free cash flow $309M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 26.1x (avg 30.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 13.2x, net debt $18.8B.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CEG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $418K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.92 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 338.07 (range 238–395).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -29.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +489.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09, EPS estimate USD 3.71, revenue estimate $9.29B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.6B | $24.4B | $24.9B | $23.6B | $25.5B | $31.3B |
| Operating income | -$346M | $495M | $1.61B | $4.35B | $3.09B | $4.60B |
| Net income | -$205M | -$160M | $1.62B | $3.75B | $2.32B | $3.46B |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.00 | -$0.49 | $5.01 | $11.89 | $7.40 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$2.67B | -$4.04B | -$7.72B | -$5.03B | $1.29B | $309M |
| Operating margin | -1.8% | 2.0% | 6.5% | 18.5% | 12.1% | 14.7% |
| Net margin | -1.0% | -0.7% | 6.5% | 15.9% | 9.1% | 11.1% |
| Revenue growth | +11.6% | +24.4% | +2.0% | -5.4% | +8.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $504M | $422M | $368M | $3.02B | $3.64B | — |
| Total debt | $5.79B | $4.65B | $7.68B | $8.47B | $7.40B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 26.1x · P/S 2.9x · EV/EBITDA 13.2x · EV/Sales 3.5x · P/FCF 292.6x · P/B 2.8x · FCF yield 0.34% · Earnings yield 3.83% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.61% · Net debt $18.8B · EV $109B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 47.8x, Dec 2024 18.8x, Dec 2023 23.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold CEG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torray Funds |  | 3.61% | $26.8M | Added +17.1% |
| Dennis Hong | ShawSpring Partners | 3.04% | $7.1M | Added +22.8% |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $418K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Crandall Roger W | Director | 1,500 | $418K | 278.62 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.92 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 338.07 (low 238, high 395).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | HSBC | Initiated | Buy | $335 |
| 2026-10-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $369 → $378 |
| 2026-10-16 | CIBC | Initiated | Outperformer | $358 |
| 2026-10-06 | Bernstein | Reiterated | Outperform | $296 |
| 2026-09-18 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $364 → $369 |
| 2026-08-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $366 → $364 |
| 2026-08-11 | Argus Research | Target lowered | Buy | $350 → $325 |
| 2026-07-28 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $388 → $380 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $358 → $324 |
| 2026-07-27 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $381 → $368 |
| 2026-07-27 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $384 → $362 |
| 2026-07-01 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $348 → $297 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2022-01-17) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -29.8% | +489.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -29.9% | +45.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 48.9% | 47.2% |
| Max drawdown | -40.9% (Oct 2025→Jul 2026) | -50.7% (Jan 2025→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Utilities - Independent Power Producers)
VST (Vistra Corp.) USD 140.83 -9.81% · NRG (NRG Energy, Inc.) USD 94.38 -5.43% · TLN (Talen Energy Corporation) USD 331.42 -7.81% · OKLO (Oklo Inc.) USD 27.01 -2.60% · TAC (TransAlta Corporation) USD 12.51 -6.22% · HNRG (Hallador Energy Company) USD 11.22 -2.01%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CEG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CEG's own 10-K filed 2026-02-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827526000032/ceg-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Calpine | "Calpine's retail energy platform adds approximately 62 TWhs of annual load to our business, and allows us to expand our C&I and residential customer base, creating incremental sales channels across the country." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calpine | $2.15B | 28.6% | — |
| Midwest | $1.57B | 20.9% | +2.9% |
| Mid-Atlantic | $1.55B | 20.7% | +7.4% |
| Other Power Regions | $964.0M | 12.8% | -18.2% |
| New York | $564.0M | 7.5% | +5.4% |
| ERCOT | $446.0M | 5.9% | -3.9% |
| Total revenue | $7.50B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 96.5% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power Revenue | $5.36B | 71.4% | +12.7% |
| Gas Revenue | $327.0M | 4.4% | +1.9% |
| Other Revenue | $161.0M | 2.1% | +78.9% |
| Total revenue | $7.50B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 77.9% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "We expect the transaction to close by the end of this year. • License renewal applications for two New York nuclear units: We have filed license renewal applications with the NRC to extend the operations of the Ginna Clean Energy Center and the Nine Mile Point Unit 1 reactor in upstate New York to 2049."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.71 | $3.74 | -0.7% | $9.29B | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.11 | $2.81 | +10.7% | $8.83B | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $12.11 | $11.77 | +2.9% | $35.85B | 21 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $13.31 | $13.58 | -2.0% | $37.16B | 21 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-13 (includes earnings 2026-11-09): ±10.8%; earnings reaction alone ±4.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 48.8% | ±5.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 52.3% | ±8.5% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 55.2% | ±10.8% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 53.4% | ±12.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 50.8% | ±12.6% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 51.6% | ±14.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 49.1% | ±15.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 47.6% | ±18.4% |