# Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CENX · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Century Aluminum Company (CENX), nexqual.com/CENX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 35.1 (+5.22% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 33.36 · day 32.77–35.33 · 52w 25.4–70.43 · market cap $3.47B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.67B, net income $604M (22.6% margin), free cash flow $151M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 5.8x (avg 47.3x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 4.8x, net debt $137M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CENX (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.20 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 60.2 (range 40–79).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +22.3% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y +165.7% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 2.75, revenue estimate $932M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.21B | $2.78B | $2.19B | $2.22B | $2.53B | $2.67B |
| Gross profit | $124M | $46.7M | $87.6M | $172M | $256M | — |
| Operating income | $66.0M | -$150M | $27.5M | $108M | $158M | $675M |
| Net income | -$167M | -$14.1M | -$43.1M | $337M | $41.8M | $604M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.85 | -$0.15 | -$0.47 | $3.27 | $0.42 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$148M | -$60.4M | $10.6M | -$107M | $84.8M | $151M |
| Gross margin | 5.6% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 3.0% | -5.4% | 1.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 25.3% |
| Net margin | -7.6% | -0.5% | -2.0% | 15.2% | 1.7% | 22.6% |
| Revenue growth | +37.8% | +25.5% | -21.3% | +1.6% | +13.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $29.0M | $54.3M | $88.8M | $32.9M | $134M | — |
| Total debt | $451M | $528M | $479M | $528M | $548M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 5.8x · P/S 1.3x · EV/EBITDA 4.8x · EV/Sales 1.4x · P/FCF 23.0x · P/B 2.5x · FCF yield 4.35% · Earnings yield 17.37% · Net debt $137M · EV $3.61B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 89.3x, Dec 2024 5.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold CENX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $16.7M | Added +122.2% |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.20 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 60.2 (low 40, high 79).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Barclays | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $40 |
| 2026-10-08 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $60 → $55 |
| 2026-09-18 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $83 → $79 |
| 2026-08-11 | UBS | Initiated | Buy | $60 |
| 2026-07-07 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $86 → $74 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +22.3% | +165.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +22.3% | +21.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 63.1% | 71.2% |
| Max drawdown | -54.3% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -82.1% (Feb 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Aluminum)
CSTM (Constellium SE) USD 24.43 -0.53% · KALU (Kaiser Aluminum Corporation) USD 120.85 +3.96% · AA (Alcoa Corporation) USD 40.21 +0.70% · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) USD 36.23 +1.40% · NTR (Nutrien Ltd.) USD 69.07 -0.43% · VMC (Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi) USD 265 +0.95%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CENX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CENX's own 10-K filed 2026-03-03 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Glencore | "For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023 we recorded $206.6 million, $191.3 million, and $191.7 million of revenue related to alumina sales to Glencore, respectively." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | $701.9M | 93.3% | +23.4% |
| Alumina | $50.2M | 6.7% | -15.6% |
| Total revenue | $752.1M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $630.9M | 83.9% | +61.0% |
| Iceland | $121.2M | 16.1% | -48.7% |
| Total revenue | $752.1M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-03-03).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The Company expects third quarter Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century to range between $325 million to $345 million ."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $2.75 | $3.48 | -21.0% | $932.2M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.34 | $3.88 | -13.9% | $1.02B | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $9.91 | $9.78 | +1.3% | $3.33B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $11.40 | $10.90 | +4.5% | $4.14B | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±14.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 23 | 74.1% | ±14.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 51 | 64.9% | ±19.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 79 | 60.5% | ±23.0% |
| 2027-03-19 | 142 | 62.7% | ±31.0% |
| 2027-06-17 | 232 | 62.2% | ±39.2% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $2.46 | $2.30 | Beat +7.0% | +9.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $1.63 | $1.78 | Miss −8.4% | -5.9% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $1.25 | $1.30 | Miss −3.8% | +4.8% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +7.0% |
| May 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -5.7% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -16.6% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +22.2% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +2.6% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Schedule 13G/A | BlackRock, Inc.: 10.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000201238326003330/0002012383-26-003330-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | Schedule 13G | STATE STREET CORPORATION: 5.6% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000009375126000430/0000093751-26-000430-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054308/0001628280-26-054308-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/0001628280-26-054300-index.htm |
| 2026-07-27 | Schedule 13G/A | BlackRock, Inc.: 9.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000201238326002282/0002012383-26-002282-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.