# Certara, Inc. (CERT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CERT · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Certara, Inc. (CERT), nexqual.com/CERT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 10.09 (-0.88% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 10.18 · day 9.86–10.31 · 52w 4.45–12.94 · market cap $1.54B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $408M, net income -$68.4M (-16.7% margin), free cash flow $80.4M (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CERT (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.69 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 9.17 (range 7–12).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -19.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -73.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.09, revenue estimate $92.0M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $286M | $336M | $354M | $385M | $419M | $408M |
| Gross profit | $174M | $203M | $213M | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $13.6M | $32.5M | -$40.8M | -$1.7M | $21.0M | -$658K |
| Net income | -$13.3M | $14.7M | -$55.4M | -$12.1M | -$1.6M | -$68.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.09 | $0.09 | -$0.35 | -$0.08 | -$0.01 | — |
| Free cash flow | $59.2M | $91.1M | $81.0M | $78.8M | $94.6M | $80.4M |
| Gross margin | 61.0% | 60.5% | 60.2% | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 4.7% | 9.7% | -11.5% | -0.4% | 5.0% | -0.2% |
| Net margin | -4.6% | 4.4% | -15.6% | -3.1% | -0.4% | -16.7% |
| Revenue growth | +17.5% | +17.3% | +5.6% | +8.7% | +8.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $186M | $237M | $235M | $179M | $189M | — |
| Total debt | $295M | $293M | $291M | $295M | $293M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 3.8x · EV/EBITDA 26.0x · EV/Sales 4.0x · P/FCF 19.1x · P/B 1.6x · FCF yield 5.22% · Earnings yield -4.44% · Buyback yield (TTM) 4.87% · Net debt $108M · EV $1.65B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold CERT. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.01% | $3.4M | New position |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.69 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 9.17 (low 7, high 12).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $9 → $12 |
| 2026-10-13 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $9 → $11 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $7.5 → $9 |
| 2026-09-30 | UBS | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $10 |
| 2026-08-05 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $6.5 → $7.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -19.3% | -73.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -19.3% | -23.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 61.2% | 59.7% |
| Max drawdown | -64.6% (Oct 2025→May 2026) | -89.6% (Nov 2021→May 2026) |

## Peers (Health Information Services)
OMCL (Omnicell, Inc.) USD 37.1 +2.09% · SDGR (Schrodinger, Inc.) USD 22.6 -5.44% · GDRX (GoodRx Holdings, Inc.) USD 3.62 +1.40% · OMDA (Omada Health, Inc.) USD 18.98 -3.46% · TDOC (Teladoc Health, Inc.) USD 6.32 +0.32% · HSTM (HealthStream, Inc.) USD 34.59 +3.22%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CERT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $62.1M | 66.6% | -1.6% |
| EMEA | $20.7M | 22.2% | -2.0% |
| Asia Pacific | $10.5M | 11.2% | +29.1% |
| Total revenue | $93.3M | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.09 | $0.10 | -13.2% | $92.0M | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.09 | $0.10 | -5.4% | $94.3M | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.34 | $0.38 | -11.1% | $379.1M | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.39 | $0.41 | -5.2% | $388.8M | 11 |