# CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CF · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), nexqual.com/CF" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 120.68 (+1.79% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 118.56 · day 118.79–121.97 · 52w 75.42–141.96 · market cap $18.3B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $7.74B, net income $2.50B (32.3% margin), free cash flow $1.91B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 7.3x (avg 8.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 4.7x, net debt $736M.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.77 on a 1–5 scale) (22 analysts), mean target USD 128.34 (range 105–195.72).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +42.5% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y +135.9% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 3.04, revenue estimate $1.79B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.54B | $11.2B | $6.63B | $5.94B | $7.08B | $7.74B |
| Gross profit | $2.39B | $5.86B | $2.54B | $2.06B | $2.72B | — |
| Operating income | $1.73B | $5.40B | $2.23B | $1.75B | $2.30B | $3.18B |
| Net income | $1.26B | $3.94B | $1.84B | $1.48B | $1.80B | $2.50B |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.24 | $16.38 | $7.87 | $6.74 | $8.97 | — |
| Free cash flow | $2.36B | $3.40B | $2.26B | $1.75B | $1.80B | $1.91B |
| Gross margin | 36.5% | 52.4% | 38.4% | 34.6% | 38.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 26.4% | 48.2% | 33.6% | 29.4% | 32.5% | 41.1% |
| Net margin | 19.3% | 35.2% | 27.7% | 24.9% | 25.4% | 32.3% |
| Revenue growth | +58.5% | +71.1% | -40.7% | -10.5% | +19.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.63B | $2.32B | $2.03B | $1.61B | $1.98B | — |
| Total debt | $3.46B | $2.96B | $2.97B | $2.97B | $3.21B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 7.3x · P/S 2.4x · EV/EBITDA 4.7x · EV/Sales 2.5x · P/FCF 9.6x · P/B 3.2x · FCF yield 10.46% · Earnings yield 13.69% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.72% · Buyback yield (TTM) 5.25% · Net debt $736M · EV $19.0B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 7.0x, Dec 2024 10.4x, Dec 2023 8.4x.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.77 on a 1–5 scale), 22 analysts; mean target USD 128.34 (low 105, high 195.72).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | CIBC | Target raised | Neutral | $125 → $133 |
| 2026-09-28 | Rothschild & Co | Upgrade | Sell → Neutral | $98 → $110 |
| 2026-09-25 | Bernstein | Initiated | Outperform | $162 |
| 2026-09-11 | Keybanc | Initiated | Underweight | $115 |
| 2026-08-10 | Scotiabank | Target raised | Sector Outperform | $125 → $130 |
| 2026-08-07 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $115 → $123 |
| 2026-07-17 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $125 → $115 |
| 2026-07-07 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $135 → $115 |
| 2026-06-30 | Scotiabank | Upgrade | Sector Perform → Sector Outperform | $120 → $125 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +42.5% | +135.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | +42.6% | +18.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 42.7% | 36.1% |
| Max drawdown | -25.4% (Mar 2026→Jun 2026) | -46.1% (Aug 2022→May 2023) |

## Peers (Agricultural Inputs)
NTR (Nutrien Ltd.) USD 69.74 +0.94% · CTVA (Corteva, Inc.) USD 12.45 -3.19% · ICL (ICL Group Ltd.) USD 4.77 +1.27% · MOS (Mosaic Company (The)) USD 17.84 +3.30% · SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) USD 59.29 +0.24% · UAN (CVR Partners, LP) USD 125.44 +0.17%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CF · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CF's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Linde (LIN) | "In June 2025, the Blue Point joint venture executed agreements, including a long-term supply agreement, with a subsidiary of Linde plc for them to design, construct, own, operate and maintain an air separation unit (ASU)…" |
| Supplier | CF Industries Nitrogen | "The amounts of distributions from CFN to us and CHS are based generally on the profitability of CFN and determined based on the volume of granular urea and UAN sold by CFN to us and CHS pursuant to supply agreements, les…" |
| Supplier | CHS | "The amounts of distributions from CFN to us and CHS are based generally on the profitability of CFN and determined based on the volume of granular urea and UAN sold by CFN to us and CHS pursuant to supply agreements, les…" |
| Customer | Point Lisas Nitrogen | "Other than products purchased from PLNL, products purchased in the marketplace in order to satisfy the obligations of our customers were not material during 2025, 2024 and 2023." |
| Partner | Mitsui & | "On April 8, 2025, we formed the Blue Point joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. (JERA), Japan's largest energy company, and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Mitsui), a leading global investment and trading company, to construct a low-ca…" |
| Partner | Blue Point Number One | "•a 40% interest in Blue Point Number One, LLC, a joint venture formed on April 8, 2025 (the Blue Point joint venture), to construct a manufacturing plant at our Blue Point complex located in Modeste, Louisiana." |
| Partner | ExxonMobil (XOM) | "ExxonMobil, our CCS partner for this project, is transporting and permanently storing the CO2." |
| Partner | Canadian Fertilizers | "Prior to April 30, 2013, we owned 66% of Canadian Fertilizers Limited (CFL), a joint venture nitrogen manufacturing facility in Alberta, Canada." |
| Partner | Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago | "PLNL is our joint venture investment in Trinidad and operates an ammonia plant that relies on natural gas supplied, under a gas sales contract (the NGC Contract), by The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limite…" |

Other companies that name CF in their own reports (relationship from CF's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | CVR PARTNERS, LP (UAN) | 10-K 2026-02-18 | "The performance graph below compares the cumulative total return of the Partnership's common units to (a) the cumulative total return of the S&P 500 Composite Index and (b) a composite peer group ("Pe…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granular Urea | $759.0M | 34.2% | +38.8% |
| UAN | $613.0M | 27.6% | +0.5% |
| Ammonia | $586.0M | 26.4% | +19.3% |
| Other | $193.0M | 8.7% | +54.4% |
| Other | $193.0M | 8.7% | +54.4% |
| AN | $71.0M | 3.2% | -39.3% |
| Total revenue | $2.22B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 108.7% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $1.93B | 86.6% | +14.2% |
| Europe and Other | $297.0M | 13.4% | +45.6% |
| Total revenue | $2.22B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 13% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-25).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.04 | $4.10 | -25.9% | $1.79B | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.64 | $4.03 | -9.6% | $1.96B | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $15.37 | $17.35 | -11.4% | $8.31B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $11.42 | $10.80 | +5.8% | $7.37B | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±8.0%; earnings reaction alone ±4.6%; last 5 reports averaged ±5.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 6 | 44.2% | ±4.9% |
| 2026-11-06 | 13 | 50.7% | ±8.0% |
| 2026-11-13 | 20 | 49.6% | ±9.5% |
| 2026-11-20 | 27 | 46.2% | ±10.3% |
| 2026-11-27 | 34 | 45.5% | ±11.3% |
| 2026-12-04 | 41 | 45.4% | ±12.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 55 | 45.3% | ±14.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 83 | 44.0% | ±16.8% |