# The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG), nexqual.com/CG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 39.2 (+5.18% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 37.27 · day 36.59–39.29 · 52w 35.41–67.3 · market cap $14.0B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.61B, net income $364M (10.1% margin), free cash flow -$4.12B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 38.4x (avg 22.6x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 0 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $17.1M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($17.1M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.40 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 51.89 (range 41–73).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -30.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -16.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.98, revenue estimate $907M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.78B | $4.44B | $2.96B | $5.43B | $4.78B | $3.61B |
| Net income | $2.97B | $1.23B | -$608M | $1.02B | $809M | $364M |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.20 | $3.35 | -$1.68 | $2.77 | $2.18 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.75B | -$420M | $138M | -$837M | -$3.37B | -$4.12B |
| Net margin | 33.9% | 27.6% | -20.5% | 18.8% | 16.9% | 10.1% |
| Revenue growth | +199.3% | -49.5% | -33.2% | +83.1% | -11.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $2.47B | $1.36B | $1.44B | $1.27B | $1.97B | — |
| Total debt | $2.07B | $2.27B | — | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 38.4x · P/S 3.9x · P/B 1.9x · FCF yield -29.52% · Earnings yield 2.61% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 3.61% · Buyback yield (TTM) 6.55%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 27.1x, Dec 2024 18.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold CG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 1.91% | $192M | Added +14.2% |
| Bill Nygren | Oakmark Funds | 0.99% | $744M | Added +6.5% |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.43% | $55.9M | Unchanged |
| Bill Miller | Miller Value Partners | 0.40% | $1.7M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Rubenstein David M. | Director | 400,000 | $17.1M | 1.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.40 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 51.89 (low 41, high 73).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $54 → $48 |
| 2026-10-13 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $70 → $60 |
| 2026-10-12 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Hold | $54 → $42 |
| 2026-10-08 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $64 → $53 |
| 2026-10-05 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $58 → $48 |
| 2026-10-02 | Wells Fargo | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $43 |
| 2026-09-24 | Piper Sandler | Initiated | Overweight | $54 |
| 2026-08-06 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $63 → $70 |
| 2026-08-06 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $48 → $51 |
| 2026-08-06 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $57 → $64 |
| 2026-08-06 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $47 → $50 |
| 2026-08-06 | Citizens | Target raised | Market Outperform | $70 → $73 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -30.0% | -16.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -30.1% | -3.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 37.0% | 38.5% |
| Max drawdown | -44.8% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -56.8% (Nov 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Asset Management)
PHYS ("Sprott Physical Gold Trust") USD 30.39 -2.72% · ARCC (Ares Capital Corporation) USD 18.79 +2.12% · EQH (Equitable Holdings, Inc.) USD 55.04 +1.23% · OWL (Blue Owl Capital Inc.) USD 9.71 +5.89% · IVZ (Invesco Ltd) USD 28.79 -1.57% · SEIC (SEI Investments Company) USD 104.5 -3.62%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name CG in their own reports (relationship from CG's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | StandardAero, Inc. (SARO) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "the term "Stockholders Agreement" refers to the stockholders agreement entered into by and among Carlyle Partners VII, the GIC Investor, certain of our other existing stockholders and the Company;" |
| partner | Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. (TSLX) | 10-K 2026-02-12 | "On December 23, 2025, affiliates of Sixth Street, including us, and affiliates of Carlyle Group Inc. ("Carlyle") entered into an amended and restated limited liability company agreement, as amended fr…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Segments | $759.3M | 67.6% | +12.3% |
| — Global Private Equity (part of Global Segments) | $304.3M | 27.1% | -1.6% |
| — Global Credit (part of Global Segments) | $294.8M | 26.2% | +23.0% |
| — Carlyle AlpInvest (part of Global Segments) | $160.2M | 14.3% | +25.8% |
| Total revenue | $1.12B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 67.6% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fund Management Fee | $657.0M | 58.5% | +5.9% |
| Incentive Fee | $98.9M | 8.8% | +144.2% |
| Investment Advice | $17.9M | 1.6% | +159.4% |
| Fee Related Performance Revenues | $3.0M | 0.3% | — |
| Total revenue | $1.12B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 69.1% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $3.28B | 68.7% | -19.9% |
| EMEA | $1.45B | 30.4% | +38.5% |
| Asia Pacific | $46.6M | 1.0% | -83.5% |
| Total revenue | $4.78B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 12% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-10).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.98 | $1.08 | -8.8% | $906.9M | 17 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.55 | $0.88 | -37.0% | $873.1M | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.52 | $3.72 | -5.3% | $3.63B | 19 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $4.97 | $5.09 | -2.5% | $4.74B | 19 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±11.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 49.6% | ±11.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 42.2% | ±13.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 42.2% | ±16.4% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 42.2% | ±21.4% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 43.2% | ±27.4% |