# Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CHDN · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN), nexqual.com/CHDN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 91.16 (+11.24% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 81.95 · day 85.25–94.24 · 52w 73.09–118.35 · market cap $6.35B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $3.00B, net income $455M (15.1% margin), free cash flow $682M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 14.0x (avg 23.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 10.9x, net debt $4.55B.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 125.75 (range 100–153).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -8.8% vs S&P 500 +14.4%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 1.03, revenue estimate $678M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.60B | $1.81B | $2.46B | $2.73B | $2.93B | $3.00B |
| Operating income | $284M | $322M | $564M | $709M | $684M | $767M |
| Net income | $249M | $439M | $417M | $427M | $383M | $455M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.18 | $5.71 | $5.49 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $420M | $461M | $528M | $688M | $700M | $682M |
| Operating margin | 17.8% | 17.8% | 22.9% | 25.9% | 23.4% | 25.5% |
| Net margin | 15.6% | 24.3% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 13.1% | 15.1% |
| Revenue growth | +51.5% | +13.3% | +36.0% | +11.1% | +7.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $291M | $130M | $145M | $176M | $201M | — |
| Total debt | $1.97B | $4.61B | $4.87B | $4.94B | $5.16B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 14.0x · P/S 2.1x · EV/EBITDA 10.9x · EV/Sales 3.6x · P/FCF 9.3x · P/B 4.6x · FCF yield 10.73% · Earnings yield 7.16% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.50% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.19% · Net debt $4.55B · EV $10.9B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 21.3x, Dec 2024 23.3x, Dec 2023 24.6x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 125.75 (low 100, high 153).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $139 → $132 |
| 2026-10-21 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $124 → $115 |
| 2026-10-20 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $123 → $118 |
| 2026-10-20 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $145 → $140 |
| 2026-10-19 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $117 → $120 |
| 2026-10-13 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $137 → $131 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wolfe Research | Initiated | Outperform | $119 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mizuho | Target raised | Outperform | $155 → $157 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $120 → $117 |
| 2026-07-31 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $149 → $137 |
| 2026-07-31 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $121 → $124 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $132 → $120 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) |
|---|---|
| Total return | -8.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% |
| Per year | -8.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.0% |
| Max drawdown | -37.1% (Dec 2025→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Gambling)
SGHC (Super Group (SGHC) Limited) USD 10.72 +2.00% · DKNG (DraftKings Inc.) USD 20.72 +2.07% · RSI (Rush Street Interactive, Inc.) USD 13.62 -9.98% · FLUT (Flutter Entertainment plc) USD 79.19 +0.84% · BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading ) USD 9.6 +3.34% · ACEL (Accel Entertainment, Inc.) USD 11.3 +1.89%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CHDN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.03 | $1.06 | -2.7% | $678.4M | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $1.21 | $1.25 | -3.2% | $669.7M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.79 | $6.92 | -1.9% | $3.02B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $7.31 | $7.28 | +0.4% | $3.11B | 9 |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 | $1.23 | $1.10 | Beat +11.8% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $3.45 | $3.43 | Beat +0.6% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $1.21 | $1.00 | Beat +21.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.97 | $1.03 | Miss −5.8% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000002021226000088/0000020212-26-000088-index.htm |
| 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure — “(d) Election of Director On October 27, 2026, upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Governance Committee of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company"), the Board appointed Michael Tucker as a Class II Director of the Company, effective immediately, to fill a vacancy created by an increase in the size of the Board. Mr. Tucker's term will expire with the other Class II Directors at the 2028 Annual Meeting of Shareholders of the Company. At the time of filing this…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000002021226000086/0000020212-26-000086-index.htm |
| 2026-10-28 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Sep 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000002021226000084/0000020212-26-000084-index.htm |
| 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000002021226000082/0000020212-26-000082-index.htm |
| 2026-09-28 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; New debt or off-balance-sheet obligation; Regulation FD disclosure — “On September 28, 2026, Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") announced that CDI successfully closed an amendment of its senior secured credit agreement dated as of December 27, 2017 (as amended from time to time, the "Existing Credit Agreement") to extend the maturity date of CDI's revolving credit facility (the "Revolver") and term loan A facility (the "Term Loan A") from 2029 to 2031 and to make certain other changes to its Existing Credit Agreement. CDI also closed its previously announced…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000119312526403885/0001193125-26-403885-index.htm |
| 2026-07-31 | Schedule 13G | Vanguard Capital Management: 5.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000210011926001341/0002100119-26-001341-index.htm |
| 2026-07-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000002021226000059/0000020212-26-000059-index.htm |
| 2026-07-29 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000002021226000058/0000020212-26-000058-index.htm |
| 2026-07-29 | 8-K | Other material event — “Strategic Alternatives Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company") has completed a comprehensive review of the Company's operational portfolio and long-term capital allocation priorities. The Company is exploring various options to sell the following wholly owned regional gaming properties: Calder Casino in Florida, Terre Haute Casino Resort in Indiana, Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Iowa, Oxford Casino Hotel in Maine, Ocean Downs Casino and Racetrack in Maryland, Harlow's Casino Resort and Spa and Riverwalk Casino…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/20212/000002021226000056/0000020212-26-000056-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.