# Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CLF · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF), nexqual.com/CLF" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 13.05 (-6.99% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 14.03 · day 13.02–13.9 · 52w 7.73–15.35 · market cap $7.45B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $20.1B, net income -$473M (-2.4% margin), free cash flow -$485M (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CLF (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $2.9M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($2.9M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 14.05 (range 12–18).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -0.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -45.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-19, EPS estimate USD 0.42, revenue estimate $5.66B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.4B | $23.0B | $22.0B | $19.2B | $18.6B | $20.1B |
| Gross profit | $4.53B | $2.52B | $1.37B | $63.0M | -$860M | — |
| Operating income | $4.01B | $1.94B | $659M | -$763M | -$1.58B | -$282M |
| Net income | $2.99B | $1.33B | $385M | -$760M | -$1.48B | -$473M |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.36 | $2.55 | $0.75 | -$1.58 | -$2.91 | — |
| Free cash flow | $2.08B | $1.48B | $1.62B | -$590M | -$1.02B | -$485M |
| Gross margin | 22.2% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 0.3% | -4.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 19.6% | 8.4% | 3.0% | -4.0% | -8.5% | -1.4% |
| Net margin | 14.6% | 5.8% | 1.8% | -4.0% | -7.9% | -2.4% |
| Revenue growth | +281.8% | +12.4% | -4.3% | -12.8% | -3.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $48.0M | $26.0M | $198M | $54.0M | $57.0M | — |
| Total debt | $5.24B | $4.25B | $3.14B | $7.07B | $7.25B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/S 0.4x · EV/EBITDA 19.5x · EV/Sales 0.8x · P/B 1.3x · FCF yield -6.51% · Earnings yield -6.35% · Net debt $7.57B · EV $15.0B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2023 27.1x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold CLF. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prem Watsa | Fairfax Financial Holdings | 5.30% | $140M | Unchanged |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | <0.01% | $127K | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Goncalves Celso L Jr | EVP, CFO | 214,308 | $2.9M | 53.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 14.05 (low 12, high 18).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | B. Riley Securities | Target raised | Buy | $15 → $18 |
| 2026-10-22 | Barclays | Target raised | Underweight | $11 → $12 |
| 2026-10-22 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $12 → $13 |
| 2026-10-20 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $12.5 → $14 |
| 2026-10-20 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $14 → $17 |
| 2026-10-19 | Barclays | Target raised | Underweight | $10 → $11 |
| 2026-10-09 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $13 → $12 |
| 2026-10-06 | Wells Fargo | Upgrade | Equal-Weight → Overweight | $12 → $14 |
| 2026-09-21 | GLJ Research | Target raised | Buy | $15.6 → $17.48 |
| 2026-09-18 | GLJ Research | Reiterated | Buy | $15.6 |
| 2026-09-09 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $11 → $13 |
| 2026-08-24 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $11 → $12 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -0.1% | -45.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -0.1% | -11.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 66.5% | 61.3% |
| Max drawdown | -48.2% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -82.3% (Mar 2022→May 2025) |

## Peers (Steel)
GGB (Gerdau S.A.) USD 5.07 -3.24% · SIM (Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.) USD 25.82 -2.57% · PKX (POSCO Holdings Inc.) USD 52.35 -6.27% · RS (Reliance, Inc.) USD 417.92 -0.75% · WS (Worthington Steel, Inc.) USD 40.47 -0.88% · STLD (Steel Dynamics, Inc.) USD 239.9 -3.25%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CLF · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name CLF in their own reports (relationship from CLF's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| supplier | SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC) | 10-K 2026-02-20 | "(2)Customers under long-term, take-or-pay agreements include Cleveland-Cliffs Steel Holding Corporation and Cleveland-Cliffs Steel LLC, both subsidiaries of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and collectively refe…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelmaking | $5.49B | 97.9% | +19.8% |
| Other Businesses | $169.0M | 3.0% | -2.3% |
| Total revenue | $5.61B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot-rolled steel | $1.75B | 31.2% | +55.9% |
| Coated steel | $1.65B | 29.4% | +14.6% |
| Cold-rolled steel | $704.0M | 12.5% | +10.7% |
| Other | $561.0M | 10.0% | +38.5% |
| Stainless and electrical steel | $514.0M | 9.2% | +10.3% |
| Plate steel | $267.0M | 4.8% | -6.6% |
| Total revenue | $5.61B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 97.1% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $15.89B | 85.4% | -8.4% |
| Canada | $2.07B | 11.1% | +94.1% |
| Other Countries | $652.0M | 3.5% | -16.2% |
| Total revenue | $18.61B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-19)

- "The Company expects fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA 2 to be approximately $715 million, an increase from the third quarter as a result of increased pricing, partially offset by seasonality, increased maintenance outages, input costs and incentive compensation accruals."
- "Based on 2027 contract changes and prevailing price forecasts, the Company would expect 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion."
- "Additional outlook details can be found on page 10 of the earnings presentation published this morning on clevelandcliffs.com/investors."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.42 | $0.17 | +150.5% | $5.66B | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.46 | $0.27 | +67.1% | $5.64B | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.06 | $-0.28 | -121.1% | $21.43B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.46 | $0.36 | +309.0% | $22.96B | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 66.4% | ±7.9% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 62.7% | ±10.2% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 66.8% | ±13.1% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 64.6% | ±14.5% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 64.0% | ±16.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 92.3% | ±25.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 59.9% | ±18.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 57.7% | ±22.1% |