# Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CLMT · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Calumet, Inc. (CLMT), nexqual.com/CLMT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 49.89 (+0.00% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 49.89 · day 49.41–50.98 · 52w 17.85–59.87 · market cap $4.39B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $4.59B, net income -$137M (-3.0% margin), free cash flow $58.4M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $20.6M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($20.4M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 55.8 (range 40–75).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +155.7% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y +353.1% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-06, EPS estimate USD 1.8, revenue estimate $1.34B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.69B | $4.18B | $4.19B | $4.14B | $4.59B |
| Gross profit | $352M | $452M | $231M | $246M | — |
| Operating income | $132M | $267M | $8.1M | $109M | $47.1M |
| Net income | -$173M | $48.1M | -$222M | -$33.8M | -$137M |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | -$2.67 | -$0.39 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$436M | -$287M | -$123M | $56.6M | $58.4M |
| Gross margin | 7.5% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | — |
| Operating margin | 2.8% | 6.4% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Net margin | -3.7% | 1.2% | -5.3% | -0.8% | -3.0% |
| Revenue growth | — | -10.8% | +0.2% | -1.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $35.2M | $7.9M | $38.1M | $125M | — |
| Total debt | — | $1.83B | $2.12B | $2.23B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 1.0x · EV/EBITDA 36.3x · EV/Sales 1.4x · P/FCF 75.1x · FCF yield 1.33% · Earnings yield -3.12% · Net debt $2.15B · EV $6.53B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2023 29.7x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Mawer Stephen P | Director | 24,555 | $0K | 6.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-01 | Sajkowski Daniel J | Director | 4,240 | $153K | 5.2% | Yes (adopted November 18, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-15 | Heritage Group |  | 626,998 | $20.4M | 4.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.67 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 55.8 (low 40, high 75).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Target raised | Buy | $60 → $75 |
| 2026-08-25 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $26 → $47 |
| 2026-08-18 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $40 → $45 |
| 2026-08-12 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $34 → $40 |
| 2026-07-30 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $36 → $40 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +155.7% | +353.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +156.5% | +35.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 43.6% | 55.2% |
| Max drawdown | -16.5% (Sep 2026→Oct 2026) | -58.6% (Dec 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Specialty Chemicals)
BCPC (Balchem Corporation) USD 166.3 -1.42% · SXT (Sensient Technologies Corporati) USD 131.59 -0.23% · AXTA (Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.) USD 34.64 +0.35% · EMN (Eastman Chemical Company) USD 66.67 +0.83% · NEU (NewMarket Corp) USD 873.27 -0.25% · WLK (Westlake Corporation) USD 65.83 -0.51%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CLMT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CLMT's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2013745/000201374526000007/clmt-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Macquarie Commodities Trading US | "In 2025, Macquarie Commodities Trading US, LLC. ("Macquarie") supplied us with approximately 20.0% of our total crude oil supply under a crude oil supply agreement." |
| Customer | ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P. (EPD) | "Our Shreveport facility is interconnected to a pipeline that supplies a portion of its crude oil and a pipeline that ships a portion of its refined fuel products to customers, such as pipelines operated by subsidiaries o…" |
| Customer | PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE LP (PAA) | "Our Shreveport facility is interconnected to a pipeline that supplies a portion of its crude oil and a pipeline that ships a portion of its refined fuel products to customers, such as pipelines operated by subsidiaries o…" |
| Competitor | ExxonMobil (XOM) | "Our primary competitors in producing paraffinic lubricating oils include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Motiva Enterprises, LLC, Phillips 66, HF Sinclair Corporation and Chevron Corporation." |
| Competitor | Chevron (CVX) | "Our primary competitors in producing renewable fuel products in the U.S. West Coast markets are Marathon Petroleum Company, Phillips 66 and Chevron Corporation." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty Products and Solutions | $1.02B | 70.7% | +61.4% |
| Montana/ Renewables | $329.0M | 22.8% | +3.5% |
| Performance Brands | $103.6M | 7.2% | +28.2% |
| Total revenue | $1.45B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-07)

- "Combined, our operating momentum and favorable outlook position us to simultaneously accelerate deleveraging and advance our growth strategies across both businesses." Net loss in the second quarter of 2026 was significantly impacted by the following non-cash items: (1) an unrealized gain of $9.0 million for derivatives and (2) non-cash RINs related expense of $163.6 million."
- "For additional information regarding factors that could cause our actual results to differ from our projected results, please see our filings with the SEC, including the risk factors and other cautionary statements in our latest Annual Report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.80 | $0.47 | +283.0% | $1.34B | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.27 | $0.17 | +647.1% | $1.27B | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.65 | $-2.84 | +$1.19 | $5.09B | 1 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.20 | $0.42 | +661.9% | $4.94B | 1 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-06): ±16.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±7.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 81.4% | ±16.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 72.3% | ±21.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 69.8% | ±26.0% |
| 2027-02-19 | 113 | 67.0% | ±29.9% |
| 2027-03-19 | 141 | 66.5% | ±33.0% |
| 2027-05-21 | 204 | 69.3% | ±41.2% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.68 | $0.16 | Beat +325.0% | +8.6% |
| May 8, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.41 | −$0.63 | Beat +34.9% | -6.6% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.18 | −$0.45 | Beat +60.0% | -9.3% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.20 | −$0.43 | Beat +$0.63 | +1.3% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.20 | −$0.43 | Beat +$0.63 | -1.8% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -11.0% |
| May 9, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +10.5% |
| Feb 28, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -10.1% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; New debt or off-balance-sheet obligation — “Eleventh Amendment to Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On September 11, 2026, Calumet, Inc. (the "Company") entered into the Eleventh Amendment to the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the "Eleventh Amendment"). The Eleventh Amendment amended the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of February 23, 2018 (the "Credit Agreement"), by and among Calumet GP, LLC, Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (the "Partnership"), certain subsidiaries of the Company party thereto, the…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2013745/000119312526390825/0001193125-26-390825-index.htm |
| 2026-09-01 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; Regulation FD disclosure — “As previously disclosed, on January 10, 2025, Montana Renewables, LLC ("MRL"), as borrower, an unrestricted, non-guarantor subsidiary of Calumet, Inc. (the "Company"), and the U.S. Department of Energy (the "DOE"), as guarantor and loan servicer, executed a Loan Guarantee Agreement ("LGA") for a loan that guarantees $1.44 billion of financing to fund the construction and expansion of the renewable fuels facility owned by MRL. On August 28, 2026, MRL and the DOE entered into an amendment (the "First Amendment") to…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2013745/000201374526000029/0002013745-26-000029-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | Two Seas Capital LP, Two Seas Capital GP LLC: 7.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2013745/000101143826000550/0001011438-26-000550-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | Wasserstein Management L.P., WDO Management GP, LLC: 4.6% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2013745/000121465926010354/0001214659-26-010354-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2013745/000201374526000024/0002013745-26-000024-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2013745/000201374526000022/0002013745-26-000022-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.