# Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CLW · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW), nexqual.com/CLW" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 19.04 (+1.60% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 18.74 · day 18.65–19.28 · 52w 11.73–23.59 · market cap $307M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.52B, net income -$49.3M (-3.2% margin), free cash flow $56.6M (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CLW (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 22.25 (range 20–25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -4.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -56.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-26, EPS estimate USD -0.16, revenue estimate $388M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.77B | $1.20B | $1.14B | $1.38B | $1.56B | $1.52B |
| Gross profit | $183M | $213M | $201M | $76.1M | $116M | — |
| Operating income | $12.0M | $99.3M | $78.1M | -$64.5M | -$42.1M | -$82.2M |
| Net income | -$28.1M | $46.0M | $108M | $196M | -$18.6M | -$49.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.67 | $2.68 | $6.30 | $11.70 | -$1.15 | — |
| Free cash flow | $58.0M | $117M | $117M | -$55.2M | -$76.5M | $56.6M |
| Gross margin | 10.3% | 17.8% | 17.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 0.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | -4.7% | -2.7% | -5.4% |
| Net margin | -1.6% | 3.8% | 9.5% | 14.2% | -1.2% | -3.2% |
| Revenue growth | -5.1% | -32.6% | -4.9% | +21.8% | +12.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $25.2M | $53.7M | $42.0M | $79.6M | $30.7M | — |
| Total debt | $639M | $566M | $440M | $282M | $346M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.2x · EV/EBITDA 48.5x · EV/Sales 0.4x · P/FCF 5.4x · P/B 0.4x · FCF yield 18.43% · Earnings yield -16.05% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.72% · Net debt $266M · EV $573M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 2.5x, Dec 2023 5.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold CLW. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Hawkins | Southeastern Asset Management | 1.26% | $24.1M | Added +0.9% |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 22.25 (low 20, high 25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $21 → $23 |
| 2026-09-11 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Neutral | $24 → $25 |
| 2026-07-15 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $12 → $17 |
| 2026-07-02 | B of A Securities | Initiated | Neutral | $19 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -4.6% | -56.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -4.6% | -15.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 52.3% | 48.1% |
| Max drawdown | -39.4% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -77.8% (Jul 2024→Mar 2026) |

## Peers (Paper & Paper Products)
SLVM (Sylvamo Corporation) USD 32.44 +3.61% · SUZ (Suzano S.A.) USD 8.53 +0.95% · NTR (Nutrien Ltd.) USD 69.09 +1.42% · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) USD 35.14 -4.51% · VMC (Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi) USD 268.72 +1.54% · STLD (Steel Dynamics, Inc.) USD 239.9 -3.25%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CLW · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CLW's own 10-K filed 2026-02-18 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000144123626000007/clw-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Sofidel | "We are party to a Services and Use Rights Agreement with Sofidel, pursuant to which we provide certain supplies and services to Sofidel in connection with its operations at such shared facility." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foodservice | $173.0M | 46.2% | +4.2% |
| Folding Carton | $132.5M | 35.4% | -10.2% |
| Sheeting and Distribution | $37.1M | 9.9% | -7.0% |
| Other | $32.2M | 8.6% | -15.7% |
| Total revenue | $374.8M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.42B | 91.2% | +13.2% |
| Non Us | $137.2M | 8.8% | +4.6% |
| Total revenue | $1.56B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.16 | $-0.52 | -69.2% | $388.4M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.64 | $-1.28 | -50.0% | $372.0M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-3.72 | $-4.28 | -13.2% | $1.50B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-1.17 | $-1.52 | -23.1% | $1.56B | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-26): ±16.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±14.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 69.3% | ±16.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 60.5% | ±19.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 57.9% | ±23.0% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 59.8% | ±33.7% |