# Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CMG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:02 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), nexqual.com/CMG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 28.14 (+0.07% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 28.12 · day 27.82–28.47 · 52w 27.82–42.19 · market cap $35.6B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $12.4B, net income $1.42B (11.4% margin), free cash flow $1.57B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 25.1x (avg 46.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $96K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($96K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.23 on a 1–5 scale) (35 analysts), mean target USD 42.39 (range 32–53).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -32.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -21.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 0.29, revenue estimate $3.28B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.55B | $8.63B | $9.87B | $11.3B | $11.9B | $12.4B |
| Operating income | $805M | $1.16B | $1.56B | $1.92B | $1.94B | $1.82B |
| Net income | $653M | $899M | $1.23B | $1.53B | $1.54B | $1.42B |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.46 | $0.64 | $0.89 | $1.11 | $1.14 | — |
| Free cash flow | $840M | $844M | $1.22B | $1.51B | $1.45B | $1.57B |
| Operating margin | 10.7% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 16.2% | 14.7% |
| Net margin | 8.7% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 11.4% |
| Revenue growth | +26.1% | +14.4% | +14.3% | +14.6% | +5.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.08B | $899M | $1.30B | $1.42B | $1.05B | — |
| Total debt | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 25.1x · P/S 2.9x · P/FCF 22.7x · P/B 16.2x · FCF yield 4.41% · Earnings yield 3.99% · Buyback yield (TTM) 7.82%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 32.3x, Dec 2024 54.1x, Dec 2023 51.6x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Bush Matthew R | Controller, PAO | 2,675 | $96K | 11.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.23 on a 1–5 scale), 35 analysts; mean target USD 42.39 (low 32, high 53).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $45 → $40 |
| 2026-10-21 | TD Cowen | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $44 → $32 |
| 2026-10-19 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $45 → $43 |
| 2026-10-16 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Outperform | $42.5 → $37 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $39 → $40 |
| 2026-10-15 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $40 → $38 |
| 2026-09-29 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $40 → $37 |
| 2026-09-16 | Seaport Global | Initiated | Neutral |  |
| 2026-09-01 | Mizuho | Reiterated | Outperform | $43 |
| 2026-09-01 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $50 → $53 |
| 2026-08-24 | Baird | Downgrade | Outperform → Neutral | $44 → $40 |
| 2026-08-05 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $45 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -32.7% | -21.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -32.8% | -4.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 43.9% | 35.4% |
| Max drawdown | -32.7% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) | -57.0% (Jun 2024→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
QSR (Restaurant Brands International) USD 76.41 +3.05% · YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) USD 154.45 +2.12% · DRI (Darden Restaurants, Inc.) USD 217.56 +1.42% · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) USD 44.76 +0.67% · TXRH (Texas Roadhouse, Inc.) USD 172.78 +2.96% · SBUX (Starbucks Corporation) USD 101.91 +2.86%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CMG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CMG's own 10-K filed 2026-02-04 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000009/cmg-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Related party | Tractor Beverages | "Accordingly, we have identified Tractor as a related party." |
| Related party | Vebu | "As we are a significant customer of Vebu and maintain board representation, we have determined that Vebu is a related party." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food and beverage revenue | $3.33B | 99.5% | +9.4% |
| Delivery service revenue | $15.8M | 0.5% | +0.8% |
| Total revenue | $3.35B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "For 2026, management is anticipating the following: • Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range • 350 to 370 new restaurant openings, which includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.29 | $0.29 | +0.8% | $3.28B | 32 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.28 | $0.28 | +1.2% | $3.30B | 32 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.15 | $1.13 | +1.2% | $13.02B | 34 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.37 | $1.35 | +0.9% | $14.42B | 34 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-10-30 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±7.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 67.0% | ±7.9% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 56.1% | ±9.1% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 52.0% | ±10.2% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 47.3% | ±10.7% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 45.6% | ±11.4% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 43.7% | ±12.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 42.5% | ±13.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 41.5% | ±16.0% |