# Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/COF · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF), nexqual.com/COF" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 203.43 (-1.56% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 206.66 · day 202.34–208.45 · 52w 174.24–259.64 · market cap $125B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $62.0B, net income $10.5B (17.0% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 11.9x (avg 26.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 16 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold COF (13F, Q2 2026 (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early)): 2 new, 7 added, 5 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 21 Form 4 filings, $12.0M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.9M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (24 analysts), mean target USD 254.55 (range 220–290).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -6.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +32.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2027-01-19, EPS estimate USD 4.76, revenue estimate $16.6B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $30.4B | $34.3B | $36.8B | $39.1B | $53.4B | $62.0B |
| Net income | $12.4B | $7.36B | $4.89B | $4.75B | $2.45B | $10.5B |
| EPS (diluted) | $26.94 | $17.91 | $11.95 | $11.59 | $4.03 | — |
| Free cash flow | $11.6B | $12.9B | $19.6B | $17.0B | $26.1B | $29.7B |
| Net margin | 40.7% | 21.5% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 4.6% | 17.0% |
| Revenue growth | +6.7% | +12.5% | +7.4% | +6.3% | +36.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $22.1B | $31.3B | $43.8B | $43.7B | $62.1B | — |
| Total debt | $43.1B | $48.7B | $49.9B | $45.6B | $51.0B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 11.9x · P/S 2.0x · P/FCF 4.2x · P/B 1.1x · FCF yield 23.80% · Earnings yield 8.43% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.52% · Buyback yield (TTM) 7.29%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 53.5x, Dec 2024 14.4x, Dec 2023 10.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
16 of 80 tracked investors hold COF (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early). Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Davis | Davis Advisors | 7.13% | $1.66B | Reduced -3.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Ruane Cunniff | Ruane Cunniff LP | 6.11% | $392M | Reduced -3.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Glenn Greenberg | Brave Warrior Advisors | 4.32% | $198M | Reduced -1.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Abrams Bison Investments, LLC |  | 4.16% | $85.3M | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |
| Daniel Loeb | Third Point | 3.56% | $166M | Added +489.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Bill Nygren | Oakmark Funds | 3.07% | $2.31B | Added +10.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Richard Pzena | Pzena Investment Management | 2.71% | $922M | Added +0.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Leon Cooperman | Omega Family Office | 2.57% | $91.3M | Added +23.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | 2.51% | $278M | Added +10.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | 0.96% | $1.83B | Added +3.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Wallace Weitz | Weitz Investment Management | 0.56% | $8.0M | New position | Q2 2026 |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 0.22% | $77.8M | Reduced -76.0% | Q2 2026 |
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 0.22% | $21.7M | New position | Q2 2026 |
| Warren Buffett | Berkshire Hathaway | 0.20% | $602M | Reduced -58.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.14% | $18.3M | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |
| David Katz | Matrix Asset Advisors | 0.05% | $634K | Added +3.4% | Q3 2026 |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
19 of 21 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Dean Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | 1,887 | $370K | 3.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-10-15 | Karam Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | 1,927 | $377K | 3.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-10-06 | Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | 3,500 | $687K | 4.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-15 | Karam Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | 2,017 | $416K | 3.4% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-15 | Dean Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | 2,066 | $426K | 3.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-01 | Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | 3,500 | $749K | 4% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-17 | Dean Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | 2,193 | $495K | 3.4% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-17 | Karam Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | 1,888 | $426K | 3.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-13 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | President, Card | 1,199 | $270K | 2.4% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-10 | Zamsky Michael | Chief Credit & Fin'l Risk Off. | 5,473 | $1.2M | 16.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-07 | Raghu Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | 50 | $11K | 0.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-04 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | President, Card | 1,183 | $260K | 2.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-04 | Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | 3,500 | $768K | 3.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-03 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | President, Card | 690 | $148K | 1.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-07-31 | Raghu Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | 9,726 | $2.0M | 27% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-29 | Golden Timothy P | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | 3,487 | $736K | 31.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-07 | Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | 3,500 | $728K | 3.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-02 | Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | 3,500 | $642K | 3.6% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-12…2026-05-13 | Haggerty Kaitlin | Chief Human Resources Officer | 1,426 | $262K | 2.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-12 | Cooper Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | 3,500 | $644K | 3.5% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 24 analysts; mean target USD 254.55 (low 220, high 290).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $280 → $285 |
| 2026-10-21 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Market Perform | $219 → $225 |
| 2026-10-21 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $227 → $241 |
| 2026-10-21 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $260 → $269 |
| 2026-10-21 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $242 → $250 |
| 2026-10-21 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $237 → $238 |
| 2026-10-12 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $246 → $227 |
| 2026-10-12 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $273 → $267 |
| 2026-10-09 | BMO Capital | Initiated | Market Perform | $219 |
| 2026-10-06 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $253 → $242 |
| 2026-10-05 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $240 → $237 |
| 2026-10-01 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $230 → $220 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -6.1% | +32.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -6.1% | +5.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 31.4% | 33.9% |
| Max drawdown | -31.5% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -46.7% (Oct 2021→May 2023) |

## Peers (Credit Services)
AXP (American Express Company) USD 325.17 +0.48% · PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.) USD 57.54 +0.59% · MA (Mastercard Incorporated) USD 633.21 +1.70% · SYF (Synchrony Financial) USD 75.09 +1.32% · AFRM (Affirm Holdings, Inc.) USD 72.4 -1.51% · V (Visa Inc.) USD 414.34 +1.59%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/COF · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in COF's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/927628/000092762826000024/cof-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "Other than the ongoing integration of Discover, we have substantially migrated primarily all aspects of our core information technology infrastructure and systems and customer-facing applications to third-party cloud inf…" |
| Competitor | Visa (V) | "Our Credit Card business competes with international, national, regional and local issuers of Visa® and Mastercard® credit cards, as well as with American Express®, private-label card brands and, to a certain extent, iss…" |
| Competitor | Mastercard (MA) | "Our Credit Card business competes with international, national, regional and local issuers of Visa® and Mastercard® credit cards, as well as with American Express®, private-label card brands and, to a certain extent, iss…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Card | $1.94B | 70.2% | +43.3% |
| Consumer Banking | $755.0M | 27.3% | +99.2% |
| Commercial Banking | $68.0M | 2.5% | -39.3% |
| Total revenue | $2.76B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interchange fees, net | $1.72B | 62.2% | +42.3% |
| Other | $188.0M | 6.8% | +50.4% |
| Service charges and other customer-related fees | $32.0M | 1.2% | +60.0% |
| Total revenue | $2.76B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 70.2% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-20)

- "Adjusted net income (1) for the third quarter of 2026 was $6.69 per diluted common share. "The Discover integration continues to go well and we're making good progress on delivering the expected synergies" said Richard D."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.76 | $4.89 | -2.7% | $16.55B | 16 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $5.72 | $5.74 | -0.4% | $16.23B | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $21.42 | $20.23 | +5.9% | $64.05B | 17 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $23.84 | $24.06 | -0.9% | $67.49B | 19 |