# ConocoPhillips (COP)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/COP · data as of 2026-10-23 16:23 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, ConocoPhillips (COP), nexqual.com/COP" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 152.33 (+4.60% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 16:23 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 145.63 · day 146.11–152.77 · 52w 85.57–152.77 · market cap $183B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $63.3B, net income $9.28B (14.7% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 19.7x (avg 13.4x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $15.6B.
- 7 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold COP (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 3 added, 4 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $3.5M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($3.5M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.18 on a 1–5 scale) (28 analysts), mean target USD 151.27 (range 126–189).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +74.4% vs S&P 500 +14.7%; 5Y +142.7% vs S&P 500 +77.5%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 3.05, revenue estimate $18.9B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45.8B | $78.5B | $56.1B | $54.7B | $58.9B | $63.3B |
| Gross profit | $27.7B | $44.5B | $34.2B | $34.7B | $36.6B | — |
| Net income | $8.08B | $18.7B | $11.0B | $9.24B | $7.99B | $9.28B |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.07 | $14.57 | $9.06 | $7.81 | $6.35 | — |
| Free cash flow | $11.7B | $18.2B | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin | 60.4% | 56.7% | 60.9% | 63.4% | 62.1% | — |
| Net margin | 17.6% | 23.8% | 19.5% | 16.9% | 13.6% | 14.7% |
| Revenue growth | +144.0% | +71.3% | -28.5% | -2.5% | +7.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | — | $9.24B | $6.61B | $6.11B | $6.98B | — |
| Total debt | $19.9B | $16.6B | $18.9B | $24.3B | $23.4B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 19.7x · P/S 2.9x · EV/Sales 3.1x · P/B 2.8x · Earnings yield 5.07% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.22% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.90% · Net debt $15.6B · EV $199B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 14.7x, Dec 2024 12.7x, Dec 2023 12.8x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
7 of 80 tracked investors hold COP. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Nygren | Oakmark Funds | 2.10% | $1.58B | Reduced -12.9% |
| Yacktman Asset Management |  | 2.06% | $167M | Added +1.6% |
| Christopher Davis | Davis Advisors | 0.84% | $195M | Added +0.1% |
| Van Den Berg Management I |  | 0.54% | $2.6M | Reduced -40.7% |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | 0.50% | $963M | Reduced -3.9% |
| Tweedy Browne |  | 0.25% | $3.3M | Added +4.7% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.02% | $2.7M | Reduced -0.7% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Lundquist Andrew D | Senior Vice President | 9,487 | $1.3M | 49.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-20 | Rose Kelly Brunetti | SVP & General Counsel | 15,000 | $2.0M | 59.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-10 | Mulligan Sharmila | Director | 1,974 | $235K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.18 on a 1–5 scale), 28 analysts; mean target USD 151.27 (low 126, high 189).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $161 → $175 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $151 → $159 |
| 2026-10-07 | Jefferies | Target raised | Buy | $159 → $174 |
| 2026-10-07 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $130 → $136 |
| 2026-09-14 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $153 → $169 |
| 2026-09-03 | Seaport Global | Initiated | Neutral |  |
| 2026-08-19 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $147 → $151 |
| 2026-08-19 | Argus Research | Target raised | Buy | $136 → $153 |
| 2026-08-17 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $155 → $150 |
| 2026-08-12 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $143 → $153 |
| 2026-08-11 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $155 → $161 |
| 2026-08-10 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $115 → $130 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +74.4% | +142.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.7% | +77.5% |
| Per year | +74.5% | +19.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 31.0% | 33.9% |
| Max drawdown | -22.3% (Mar 2026→Jul 2026) | -33.8% (Apr 2024→May 2025) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas E&P)
CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources Limi) USD 55.47 +2.87% · EOG (EOG Resources, Inc.) USD 164.72 +4.28% · OXY (Occidental Petroleum Corporatio) USD 64.85 +3.75% · FANG (Diamondback Energy, Inc.) USD 206.59 +4.79% · DVN (Devon Energy Corporation) USD 51.59 +4.90% · EQT (EQT Corporation) USD 55.88 +2.21%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/COP · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in COP's own 10-K filed 2026-02-17 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000009/cop-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Venezuela | "•The ability of our customers and other contractual counterparties to satisfy their obligations to us, including our ability to collect payments when due from the government of Venezuela or PDVSA." |
| Partner | Chevron (CVX) | "We own a 52.2 percent interest in the Alba Plant LLC, our joint venture with Chevron Corporation (27.8 percent) and Sociedad Nacional de Gas de Guinea Ecuatorial (SONAGAS) (20 percent), which operates an onshore liquifie…" |
| Partner | Australia Pacific LNG Pty | "Australia Pacific LNG Pty Ltd. (APLNG), our joint venture with Origin Energy Limited (Origin) and China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec), is focused on producing CBM from the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland, Aust…" |
| Partner | QatarEnergy LNG | "We have a 25 percent interest in both QatarEnergy LNG NFE (4) (NFE4) and QatarEnergy LNG NFS (3) (NFS3) joint ventures, which are participating in the North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) LNG projects, resp…" |
| Partner | National Oil | "In January 2026, we signed an agreement with the Libyan Ministry of Oil and Gas and the National Oil Corporation of Libya to extend the Waha Concession up to December 31, 2050, with new fiscal terms, subject to normal re…" |
| Partner | Alba Plant | "We own a 52.2 percent interest in the Alba Plant LLC, our joint venture with Chevron Corporation (27.8 percent) and Sociedad Nacional de Gas de Guinea Ecuatorial (SONAGAS) (20 percent), which operates an onshore liquifie…" |
| Partner | Marubeni Gas Development UK | "We own a 56 percent interest in EG LNG, our joint venture with SONAGAS (37.9 percent) and Marubeni Gas Development UK Limited (6.1 percent), which operates a 3.7 MTPA LNG production facility." |
| Partner | Atlantic Methanol Production Company | "We own a 45 percent interest in Atlantic Methanol Production Company LLC (AMPCO), our joint venture with Chevron Corporation (45 percent) and SONAGAS (10 percent), which operates a methanol plant." |
| Partner | Origin Energy | "Australia Pacific LNG Pty Ltd. (APLNG), our joint venture with Origin Energy Limited (Origin) and China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec), is focused on producing CBM from the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland, Aust…" |
| Partner | China Petrochemical | "Australia Pacific LNG Pty Ltd. (APLNG), our joint venture with Origin Energy Limited (Origin) and China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec), is focused on producing CBM from the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland, Aust…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Segments | $19.78B | 103.2% | +36.5% |
| — Lower 48 (part of Total Segments) | $13.03B | 68.0% | +30.8% |
| — EMENA (part of Total Segments) | $2.28B | 11.9% | +62.6% |
| — Canada Operating (part of Total Segments) | $1.93B | 10.0% | +44.3% |
| — Alaska (part of Total Segments) | $1.87B | 9.8% | +42.4% |
| — Asia Pacific Operating (part of Total Segments) | $674.0M | 3.5% | +43.1% |
| Corporate | $6.0M | 0.0% | -14.3% |
| Total revenue | $19.16B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 103.3% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $14.85B | 77.5% | +33.3% |
| International | $4.31B | 22.5% | +50.3% |
| Total revenue | $19.16B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-17).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Third-quarter 2026 production is expected to be 2.29 to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.05 | $2.39 | +27.4% | $18.94B | 25 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.33 | $2.32 | +43.8% | $19.18B | 24 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $11.40 | $9.50 | +20.1% | $73.57B | 26 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $10.77 | $8.94 | +20.5% | $69.45B | 26 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±6.4%; earnings reaction alone ±2.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±1.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 37.6% | ±4.2% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 40.3% | ±6.4% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 38.1% | ±7.3% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 36.8% | ±8.3% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 33.6% | ±8.4% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 34.3% | ±9.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 34.6% | ±10.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 33.7% | ±12.9% |