# CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CTO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO), nexqual.com/CTO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 20.25 (+3.42% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 19.58 · day 19.69–20.31 · 52w 16.02–22.71 · market cap $759M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $161M, net income $52.6M (32.6% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 14.4x (avg 64.8x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 11.3x, net debt $651M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CTO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 24.6 (range 24–25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +34.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +71.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 0.1, revenue estimate $45.2M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $70.3M | $82.3M | $109M | $125M | $150M | $161M |
| Gross profit | $47.8M | $59.5M | $78.9M | $91.3M | $112M | — |
| Operating income | $23.3M | $10.7M | $26.5M | $17.6M | $34.0M | $62.4M |
| Net income | $29.9M | $3.2M | $5.5M | -$2.0M | $10.1M | $52.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.56 | -$0.09 | $0.03 | -$0.35 | $0.08 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$229M | -$329M | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin | 68.1% | 72.2% | 72.3% | 73.3% | 74.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 33.2% | 13.0% | 24.3% | 14.1% | 22.7% | 38.7% |
| Net margin | 42.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | -1.6% | 6.7% | 32.6% |
| Revenue growth | +24.6% | +17.1% | +32.6% | +14.1% | +20.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $8.6M | $19.3M | $10.2M | $9.0M | $6.5M | — |
| Total debt | $278M | $446M | $495M | $519M | $616M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 14.4x · P/S 4.7x · EV/EBITDA 11.3x · EV/Sales 8.8x · P/B 1.1x · Earnings yield 6.92% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 6.73% · Net debt $651M · EV $1.41B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 58.9x, Dec 2023 70.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold CTO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Miller | Miller Value Partners | 2.74% | $11.6M | Reduced -2.9% |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 24.6 (low 24, high 25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Jones Trading | Maintained | Buy | $24 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Overweight | $23 → $25 |
| 2026-07-29 | Jones Trading | Target raised | Buy | $23 → $24 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +34.0% | +71.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +34.2% | +11.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 18.2% | 20.5% |
| Max drawdown | -11.5% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -25.1% (Aug 2022→May 2023) |

## Peers (REIT - Diversified)
SAFE (Safehold Inc. New) USD 11.33 +6.29% · JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) USD 11.39 +6.35% · AHRT (AH Realty Trust, Inc.) USD 6.14 +3.54% · GOOD (Gladstone Commercial Corporatio) USD 12 +3.18% · FVR (FrontView REIT, Inc.) USD 17.76 +3.14% · OLP (One Liberty Properties, Inc.) USD 22.37 +3.14%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CTO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CTO's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23795/000110465926017560/cto-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (PINE) | "As of December 31, 2025, the fair value of our investment totaled $41.3 million, or 15.4% of PINE's outstanding common equity, including the units of limited partnership interest ("OP Units") we hold in Alpine Income Pro…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Properties | $37.1M | 84.7% | +11.3% | $10.2M | 27.4% |
| Commercial Loans & Investments | $5.2M | 11.9% | +73.4% | $4.1M | 79.3% |
| Management Services | $1.5M | 3.3% | +17.6% | $1.5M | 100.0% |
| Total revenue | $43.8M | 100% | — | $15.8M | 36.0% |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-28)

- "Guidance to $300 million to $400 million – – Increases 2026 Core FFO Per Diluted Share Guidance to $2.09 to $2.13 – ​ ​ WINTER PARK, FL – July 28, 2026 – CTO Realty Growth, Inc."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.10 | $0.00 | — | $45.2M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.12 | $0.00 | — | $46.6M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.70 | $0.45 | +56.7% | $176.8M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.62 | $0.00 | — | $194.1M | 1 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-27): ±6.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 28.8% | ±6.8% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 32.9% | ±14.9% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 27.1% | ±16.2% |