# Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CVLG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG), nexqual.com/CVLG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 29.77 (-0.43% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 29.9 · day 29.61–30.48 · 52w 18–49.88 · market cap $755M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.23B, net income $3.8M (0.3% margin), free cash flow -$37.9M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 199.3x (avg 38.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 11.1x, net debt $286M.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CVLG (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $2.3M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.1M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 49.5 (range 42–56).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +50.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +127.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.43, revenue estimate $340M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.05B | $1.22B | $1.10B | $1.13B | $1.16B | $1.23B |
| Operating income | $67.2M | $121M | $58.8M | $44.8M | $2.9M | -$1.1M |
| Net income | $60.7M | $109M | $55.2M | $35.9M | $7.2M | $3.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.89 | $3.50 | $2.00 | $1.30 | $0.27 | — |
| Free cash flow | $37.9M | $58.8M | -$133M | -$30.1M | -$33.9M | -$37.9M |
| Operating margin | 6.4% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| Net margin | 5.8% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Revenue growth | — | +16.3% | -9.3% | +2.5% | +2.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $8.4M | $68.7M | $2.3M | $35.6M | $4.9M | — |
| Total debt | $26.1M | $109M | $245M | $251M | $298M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 199.3x · P/S 0.6x · EV/EBITDA 11.1x · EV/Sales 0.8x · P/B 1.8x · FCF yield -5.01% · Earnings yield 0.50% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.93% · Net debt $286M · EV $1.04B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 81.9x, Dec 2024 21.0x, Dec 2023 11.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold CVLG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $15.9M | Added +44.6% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $1.4M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Ballard Joey | EVP, Chief People & Safety Off | 4,000 | $161K | 23.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-27 | Hogan Joey B | Director | 12,800 | $502K | 12.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-05-22…2026-05-26 | Ballard Joey | EVP, Chief People & Safety Off | 8,000 | $301K | 31.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-29 | Kramer D Michael | Director | 2,650 | $92K | 12.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-28 | Hogan Joey B | Director | 14,700 | $511K | 12.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-04-20 | Grant James S Iii | EVP and CFO | 22,388 | $688K | 51.7% | Yes (adopted November 21, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 49.5 (low 42, high 56).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $43 → $42 |
| 2026-08-20 | Baird | Initiated | Outperform | $50 |
| 2026-07-31 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Overweight | $60 → $54 |
| 2026-07-15 | Citizens | Initiated | Market Outperform | $60 |
| 2026-07-08 | Stephens & Co. | Initiated | Overweight | $60 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +50.5% | +127.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +50.8% | +17.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 40.1% | 39.6% |
| Max drawdown | -41.4% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -39.7% (Nov 2021→Apr 2022) |

## Peers (Trucking)
HTLD (Heartland Express, Inc.) USD 10.29 +0.29% · MRTN (Marten Transport, Ltd.) USD 12.3 -2.84% · ULH (Universal Logistics Holdings, I) USD 17.35 +4.33% · WERN (Werner Enterprises, Inc.) USD 29.18 -2.34% · ARCB (ArcBest Corporation) USD 130.3 -0.39% · RXO (RXO, Inc.) USD 28.92 +0.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CVLG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CVLG's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928658/000143774926006086/cvti20251231_10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | AAT Carriers | "Our Expedited reportable segment has historically experienced a greater reduction in first quarter demand than our other operations, however, this trend has lessened following the growth of AAT, which is part of the Expe…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedicated | $112.4M | 33.8% | +9.9% | $7.8M | 6.9% |
| Managed Freight | $99.5M | 29.9% | +28.4% | $1.7M | 1.7% |
| Expedited | $93.4M | 28.1% | -4.0% | $8.4M | 9.0% |
| Warehousing | $26.9M | 8.1% | +4.5% | $1.6M | 5.9% |
| Total revenue | $332.9M | 100% | — | $8.8M | 2.7% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo & Freight | $294.7M | 88.5% | +6.6% |
| Fuel Surcharge | $38.2M | 11.5% | +45.0% |
| Total revenue | $332.9M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "For the third quarter of 2026, we expect a modest sequential increase to earnings per share as anticipated operating margin improvement is partially offset by the absence of higher TEL equipment sales, lower income tax rate, and interest income that benefitted the second quarter."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.43 | $0.52 | -17.7% | $340.1M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.51 | $0.54 | -5.4% | $337.2M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.62 | $1.76 | -8.0% | $1.32B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.64 | $2.86 | -7.9% | $1.44B | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±8.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±6.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 37.0% | ±8.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 36.9% | ±11.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 39.3% | ±19.9% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 41.2% | ±26.4% |