# Carvana Co. (CVNA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CVNA · data as of 2026-10-22 20:03 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Carvana Co. (CVNA), nexqual.com/CVNA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 58.72 (-0.79% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 59.19 · day 58.44–59.96 · 52w 54.46–97.38 · market cap $65.1B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $25.1B, net income $1.57B (6.3% margin), free cash flow $929M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 41.5x (avg 73.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $2.54B.
- 7 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CVNA (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 7 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.13 on a 1–5 scale) (24 analysts), mean target USD 82.19 (range 60–120).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -14.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -1.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 0.44, revenue estimate $7.67B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.8B | $13.6B | $10.8B | $13.7B | $20.3B | $25.1B |
| Gross profit | $1.93B | $1.25B | $1.72B | $2.88B | $4.19B | — |
| Operating income | — | -$2.35B | -$80.0M | $990M | $1.88B | $2.24B |
| Net income | -$135M | -$1.59B | $450M | $210M | $1.41B | $1.57B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.33 | -$3.15 | $0.15 | $0.32 | $1.69 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$3.15B | -$1.84B | $716M | $827M | $889M | $929M |
| Gross margin | 15.1% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 21.0% | 20.6% | — |
| Operating margin | — | -17.3% | -0.7% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% |
| Net margin | -1.1% | -11.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| Revenue growth | +129.4% | +6.2% | -20.8% | +26.9% | +48.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $403M | $434M | $530M | $1.72B | $2.33B | — |
| Total debt | $5.36B | $8.21B | $6.19B | $5.56B | $5.04B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 41.5x · P/S 2.6x · EV/Sales 2.7x · P/FCF 70.1x · P/B 16.2x · FCF yield 1.43% · Earnings yield 2.41% · Net debt $2.54B · EV $67.6B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 67.3x, Dec 2024 128.0x, Dec 2023 23.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
7 of 80 tracked investors hold CVNA. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clifford Sosin | CAS Investment Partners | 78.85% | $1.48B | Added +396.8% |
| Robert Vinall | RV Capital GmbH | 30.31% | $116M | Added +367.4% |
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 4.30% | $442M | Added +575.0% |
| Stephen Mandel | Lone Pine Capital | 4.23% | $692M | Added +499.6% |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 2.31% | $811M | Added +343.2% |
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | 1.57% | $174M | Added +527.8% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.02% | $2.5M | Added +410.4% |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.13 on a 1–5 scale), 24 analysts; mean target USD 82.19 (low 60, high 120).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $90 → $88 |
| 2026-10-09 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $87 |
| 2026-10-06 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Overweight | $91.5 → $83 |
| 2026-10-06 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $93 → $80 |
| 2026-09-30 | Oppenheimer | Maintained | Outperform | $450 → $90 |
| 2026-08-04 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $87 |
| 2026-07-31 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $93 → $90 |
| 2026-07-31 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $94 → $93 |
| 2026-07-30 | BNP Paribas | Target lowered | Neutral | $86 → $69 |
| 2026-07-30 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $85 → $82 |
| 2026-07-30 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | In-Line | $86 → $75 |
| 2026-07-30 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $103 → $83 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -14.2% | -1.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -14.2% | -0.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 61.6% | 106.0% |
| Max drawdown | -41.2% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -98.7% (Oct 2021→Dec 2022) |

## Peers (Auto & Truck Dealerships)
PAG (Penske Automotive Group, Inc.) USD 212.11 +0.03% · KMX (CarMax Inc) USD 52.96 +2.85% · RUSHB (Rush Enterprises, Inc.) USD 57.89 -1.14% · LAD (Lithia Motors, Inc.) USD 291.07 +8.15% · AN (AutoNation, Inc.) USD 161.84 +5.77% · OPLN (OPENLANE, Inc.) USD 38.05 +1.63%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CVNA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CVNA's own 10-K filed 2026-02-18 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082026000009/cvna-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Root, Inc. (ROOT) | "We generate other sales and revenues primarily through the sales of loans we originate and sell in securitization transactions or to financing partners, reported net of a reserve for expected repurchases, commissions we …" |
| Partner | Moelis & Co (MC) | "On July 19, 2023, the Company entered into an agreement (the "Distribution Agreement") to establish an ATM Program, and on July 31, 2024, the Company refreshed the ATM Program by entering into an Amended and Restated Dis…" |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "•internet and online automotive sites, such as Amazon, Autobytel, AutoTrader, Cars, Carfax, CarGurus, eBay Motors, Edmunds, Google, KBB, and TrueCar;" |
| Competitor | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "•internet and online automotive sites, such as Amazon, Autobytel, AutoTrader, Cars, Carfax, CarGurus, eBay Motors, Edmunds, Google, KBB, and TrueCar;" |
| Competitor | Costco (COST) | "•providers of offline, membership-based car-buying services such as the Costco Auto Program;" |
| Competitor | Ford (F) | "•automobile manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen, Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid; and" |
| Competitor | General Motors (GM) | "•automobile manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen, Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid; and" |
| Competitor | Toyota (TM) | "•automobile manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen, Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid; and" |
| Competitor | Tesla (TSLA) | "•automobile manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen, Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid; and" |

Other companies that name CVNA in their own reports (relationship from CVNA's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Root, Inc. (ROOT) | 10-K 2026-02-25 | "These arrangements involve varying degrees of integration, including our fully integrated embedded product utilized with some partners, such as Carvana." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail vehicle sales, net | $5.51B | 74.7% | +61.7% |
| Wholesale sales and revenues | $1.34B | 18.2% | +31.2% |
| Other sales and revenues | $526.0M | 7.1% | +28.0% |
| Total revenue | $7.38B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.44 | $0.45 | -3.4% | $7.67B | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.37 | $0.35 | +3.8% | $7.53B | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.56 | $1.48 | +5.4% | $29.05B | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.26 | $2.10 | +7.5% | $36.52B | 14 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-10-30 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±13.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±11%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 112.4% | ±13.4% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 96.5% | ±15.6% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 79.4% | ±15.6% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 78.0% | ±17.8% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 80.1% | ±20.1% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 73.4% | ±20.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 67.8% | ±21.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 64.8% | ±24.8% |