# Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CWST · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST), nexqual.com/CWST" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 96.89 (+7.39% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 90.22 · day 90.86–97.27 · 52w 74.05–107.96 · market cap $6.17B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.96B, net income $5.7M (0.3% margin), free cash flow $106M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 1081.0x (avg 481.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 19.2x, net debt $1.33B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$57.2M vs operating income $66.1M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈143.7x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 35% effective rate).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $3.0M; 5 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($3.0M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 2 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.45 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 106.5 (range 91–130).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +6.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +15.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09, EPS estimate USD 0.38, revenue estimate $563M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $889M | $1.09B | $1.26B | $1.56B | $1.84B | $1.96B |
| Gross profit | $307M | $362M | $433M | $530M | $620M | — |
| Operating income | $77.7M | $95.4M | $80.4M | $72.8M | $63.7M | $66.1M |
| Net income | $41.1M | $53.1M | $25.4M | $13.5M | $7.9M | $5.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.80 | $1.03 | $0.46 | $0.23 | $0.12 | — |
| Free cash flow | $59.4M | $86.4M | $78.2M | $78.1M | $84.7M | $106M |
| Gross margin | 34.5% | 33.4% | 34.2% | 34.0% | 33.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Net margin | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Revenue growth | +14.8% | +22.0% | +16.5% | +23.1% | +18.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $33.8M | $71.2M | $221M | $383M | $124M | — |
| Total debt | $552M | $594M | $1.04B | $1.13B | $1.15B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 1081.0x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈143.7x · P/S 3.1x · EV/EBITDA 19.2x · EV/Sales 3.8x · P/FCF 58.4x · P/B 3.9x · FCF yield 1.71% · Earnings yield 0.09% · Net debt $1.33B · EV $7.49B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 790.9x, Dec 2024 466.5x, Dec 2023 186.0x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Burke Michael K | Director | 1,100 | $105K | 7.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-26 | Burke Michael K | Director | 1,100 | $102K | 6.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-13…2026-08-14 | Casella Douglas R | VICE CHAIRMAN, BD OF DIRECTORS | 16,500 | $1.5M | 3.5% | No | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-26 | Burke Michael K | Director | 2,305 | $202K | 14.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-19 | Coletta Edmond | PRESIDENT & CEO | 12,500 | $1.1M | 8.2% | No | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.45 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 106.5 (low 91, high 130).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $91 → $99 |
| 2026-10-21 | UBS | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $122 → $95 |
| 2026-10-08 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $105 → $91 |
| 2026-08-10 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $110 → $105 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $102 → $104 |
| 2026-06-26 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $130 → $122 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +6.7% | +15.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +6.7% | +3.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.9% | 26.6% |
| Max drawdown | -30.2% (Feb 2026→Mar 2026) | -36.7% (May 2025→Mar 2026) |

## Peers (Waste Management)
GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin) USD 44.14 +1.52% · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.) USD 320.96 +0.53% · WCN (Waste Connections, Inc.) USD 184.88 +9.86% · OIO (OIO Group) USD 1.87 +1.08% · NVRI (Enviri Corporation) USD 19.15 -4.25% · ONT (Onterris, Inc.) USD 14.64 +4.95%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CWST · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CWST's own 10-K filed 2026-02-20 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/911177/000091117726000008/cwst-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor | UPS (UPS) | "This competition comes from other waste management companies as well as other employers who hire drivers and maintain fleets, such as companies that provide courier delivery services, including United Parcel Service, Inc…" |
| Competitor | FedEx (FDX) | "This competition comes from other waste management companies as well as other employers who hire drivers and maintain fleets, such as companies that provide courier delivery services, including United Parcel Service, Inc…" |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "This competition comes from other waste management companies as well as other employers who hire drivers and maintain fleets, such as companies that provide courier delivery services, including United Parcel Service, Inc…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid waste | $442.2M | 81.3% | +18.4% | $55.2M | 12.5% |
| — Western Region (part of Solid waste) | $185.7M | 34.2% | +9.2% | — | — |
| — Eastern Region (part of Solid waste) | $154.2M | 28.4% | +27.5% | — | — |
| — Mid Atlantic Region (part of Solid waste) | $102.2M | 18.8% | +23.8% | — | — |
| Resource Solutions | $101.6M | 18.7% | +10.7% | $5.2M | 5.1% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$40.4M | — |
| Total revenue | $543.7M | 100% | — | $20.0M | 3.7% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solid waste | $442.2M | 81.3% | +18.4% |
| — Collection (part of Solid waste) | $355.0M | 65.3% | +19.2% |
| — Disposal (part of Solid waste) | $77.1M | 14.2% | +17.9% |
| — Landfill Revenue (part of Solid waste) | $9.2M | 1.7% | +16.4% |
| Collection | $114.7M | 21.1% | +28.4% |
| — Resource Solutions (part of Collection) | $101.6M | 18.7% | +10.7% |
| — Transportation (part of Collection) | $5.9M | 1.1% | -3.4% |
| — Processing (part of Collection) | $2.6M | 0.5% | +2.4% |
| — Processing Services (part of Collection) | $2.3M | 0.4% | +8.2% |
| — Transportation (part of Collection) | $1.9M | 0.4% | +9.4% |
| — Landfill Gas To Energy (part of Collection) | $349,000 | 0.1% | +19.5% |
| Processing | $52.9M | 9.7% | +5.5% |
| Transfer Station | $25.7M | 4.7% | +31.9% |
| Landfill gas-to-energy | $1.4M | 0.3% | -8.3% |
| Total revenue | $543.7M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 117.1% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The Company reaffirmed guidance for fiscal year 2026 by estimating results in the following ranges: • Adjusted EBITDA between $473 million and $483 million; • Net cash provided by operating activities between $370 million and $380 million; and • Adjusted Free Cash Flow between $200 million and $210 million."
- "Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow related to fiscal year 2026 are described in the Unaudited Reconciliation of Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook Non-GAAP Measures section of this press release."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.38 | $0.40 | -4.3% | $562.9M | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.26 | $0.27 | -0.5% | $539.1M | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.25 | $1.16 | +7.5% | $2.10B | 11 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.43 | $1.50 | -5.2% | $2.26B | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-09): ±9.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 42.5% | ±9.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 39.3% | ±12.4% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 37.7% | ±19.0% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 37.8% | ±24.2% |