# HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/DINO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO), nexqual.com/DINO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 122.32 (-2.59% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 125.57 · day 119.83–126.76 · 52w 45.71–129.37 · market cap $21.7B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $31.2B, net income $1.92B (6.1% margin), free cash flow $2.31B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 11.4x (avg 19.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.4x, net debt $510M.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold DINO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $1.7M; 5 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.7M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (2 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $2.4M; 2 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.69 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 122.07 (range 73–160).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +130.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +297.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 7.81, revenue estimate $8.89B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.4B | $38.2B | $32.0B | $28.6B | $26.9B | $31.2B |
| Gross profit | $2.82B | $7.52B | $6.18B | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $749M | $4.05B | $2.20B | $261M | $927M | $2.59B |
| Net income | $558M | $2.92B | $1.59B | $177M | $579M | $1.92B |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.39 | $14.28 | $8.29 | $0.91 | $3.08 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$318M | $3.25B | $1.91B | $640M | $866M | $2.31B |
| Gross margin | 15.3% | 19.7% | 19.3% | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 4.1% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 0.9% | 3.5% | 8.3% |
| Net margin | 3.0% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 6.1% |
| Revenue growth | +64.4% | +107.8% | -16.3% | -10.6% | -6.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $234M | $1.67B | $1.35B | $800M | $978M | — |
| Total debt | $3.07B | $3.28B | $2.76B | $2.64B | $2.77B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 11.4x · P/S 0.7x · EV/EBITDA 6.4x · EV/Sales 0.7x · P/FCF 9.4x · P/B 2.1x · FCF yield 10.63% · Earnings yield 8.81% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.68% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.57% · Net debt $510M · EV $22.3B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 14.8x, Dec 2024 38.0x, Dec 2023 6.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold DINO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bloomstran | Semper Augustus | 1.99% | $17.6M | Reduced -30.1% |
| Tweedy Browne |  | 0.21% | $2.7M | Added +31.0% |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | <0.01% | $1.2M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Kunneman Dale | SVP and CHRO | 8,936 | $756K | 17.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-02 | Fernandez Manuel J | Director | 635 | $46K | 3.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-26 | Joyce Matthew | SVP, Lubricants & Specialties | 2,384 | $166K | 13.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-19 | Garg Vivek | Acting CFO, VP, CAO & CONTR | 717 | $52K | 5.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-15 | Pompa Valerie | EVP, Operations | 10,000 | $691K | 18.8% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 purchases, $2.4M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Myers Franklin | CEO | 15,000 | $1.3M | 85.3 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-16 | Hardy Rhoman J | Director | 1,508 | $100K | 66.32 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Myers Franklin | CEO and President | 15,000 | $1.0M | 69.11 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.69 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 122.07 (low 73, high 160).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $100 → $110 |
| 2026-10-14 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $93 → $135 |
| 2026-10-12 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $86 → $122 |
| 2026-10-12 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $95 → $110 |
| 2026-10-09 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Buy | $114 → $142 |
| 2026-10-08 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $85 → $119 |
| 2026-10-05 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $126 → $133 |
| 2026-09-14 | Raymond James | Target raised | Strong Buy | $105 → $140 |
| 2026-09-14 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $78 → $127 |
| 2026-09-08 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $105 → $126 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $67 → $93 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $79 → $85 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +130.3% | +297.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +130.9% | +31.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 39.1% | 40.6% |
| Max drawdown | -17.6% (Nov 2025→Dec 2025) | -54.8% (Apr 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing)
PBF (PBF Energy Inc.) USD 79.25 -2.81% · UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne) USD 7.8 -2.13% · CVI (CVR Energy Inc.) USD 58.63 -3.46% · DK (Delek US Holdings, Inc.) USD 75.79 -3.11% · IEP (Icahn Enterprises L.P. - Deposi) USD 6.13 -0.33% · PSX (Phillips 66) USD 284.63 -1.88%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/DINO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in DINO's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1915657/000191565726000016/dino-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Cheyenne Pipeline | "(1)During the year ended December 31, 2025, we assigned certain of our equity ownership interests to other parties, including our 50% ownership interest in Cheyenne Pipeline, LLC to our joint venture partner in exchange …" |
| Partner | Green Trail Fuels | "In February 2026, we announced the formation of Green Trail Fuels, LLC, a new joint venture in which we will hold a 50% non-operating economic interest." |
| Partner | PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE LP (PAA) | "We, through our wholly owned subsidiary HEP Cushing LLC ("HEP Cushing"), own a 50% interest in Cushing Connect Pipeline & Terminal LLC ("Cushing Connect"), a joint venture with Plains Marketing, L.P., a wholly owned subs…" |

Other companies that name DINO in their own reports (relationship from DINO's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | GENESIS ENERGY LP (GEL) | 10-K 2026-02-18 | "A majority of the NaHS we receive is sourced from refineries owned and operated by large companies, including Phillips 66, CITGO, HF Sinclair, Calumet and Ergon." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | $7.75B | 74.6% | +50.2% | $877.0M | 11.3% |
| Marketing | $1.37B | 13.2% | +65.9% | $20.0M | 1.5% |
| Lubricants & Specialties | $998.0M | 9.6% | +55.7% | $181.0M | 18.1% |
| Renewables | $243.0M | 2.3% | +85.5% | $30.0M | 12.3% |
| Midstream | $32.0M | 0.3% | +14.3% | $87.0M | 271.9% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$27.0M | — |
| Total revenue | $10.39B | 100% | — | $1.17B | 11.2% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total refined product revenues | $9.78B | 94.2% | +54.8% |
| — Transportation fuels (part of Total refined product revenues) | $8.32B | 80.1% | +55.7% |
| — Lubricants and specialty products (part of Total refined product revenues) | $879.0M | 8.5% | +50.8% |
| — Asphalt, fuel oil and other products (part of Total refined product revenues) | $587.0M | 5.6% | +49.4% |
| Excess crude oil revenues | $310.0M | 3.0% | -10.1% |
| Other revenues | $264.0M | 2.5% | +193.3% |
| RIN | $163.0M | 1.6% | — |
| Transportation and logistics services | $32.0M | 0.3% | +10.3% |
| Total revenue | $10.39B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 101.6% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2024-12-31: 11% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-27).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-28)

- "As part of this transformation, HF Sinclair has decided to retire its base oil refining assets in Mississauga, Ontario with the transition expected to be substantially completed over the course of 2027."
- "HF Sinclair anticipates the separation of Lubricants & Specialties in a tax-efficient manner for HF Sinclair and its shareholders, and the transaction is intended to be executed over the next 12-18 months."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $7.81 | $4.15 | +88.0% | $8.89B | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.10 | $2.09 | +191.6% | $8.58B | 14 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $18.66 | $10.79 | +72.9% | $35.29B | 15 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $14.97 | $8.01 | +87.0% | $32.82B | 15 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±12.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 56.2% | ±12.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 55.3% | ±17.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 54.0% | ±20.4% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 52.6% | ±26.1% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 53.1% | ±31.3% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 52.3% | ±32.7% |
| 2027-08-20 | 301 | 51.3% | ±35.8% |
| 2027-11-19 | 392 | 51.1% | ±40.5% |