# Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/DNLI · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI), nexqual.com/DNLI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 19.29 (+0.36% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 19.22 · day 18.84–19.29 · 52w 13.75–27.3 · market cap $3.08B · NMS

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $435K; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($108K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 2 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.95 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 35.5 (range 23–42).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +18.3% vs S&P 500 +13.2%; 5Y -60.1% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD -0.37, revenue estimate $22.9M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.7M | $108M | $331M | $0K | $0K | — |
| Operating income | -$296M | -$341M | -$197M | -$487M | -$555M | -$543M |
| Net income | -$291M | -$326M | -$145M | -$423M | -$513M | -$511M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.39 | -$2.60 | -$1.06 | -$2.57 | -$2.97 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$220M | -$263M | -$371M | -$364M | -$422M | -$437M |
| Operating margin | -607.8% | -314.2% | -59.5% | — | — | — |
| Net margin | -597.2% | -300.6% | -43.9% | — | — | — |
| Revenue growth | -85.5% | +122.9% | +204.7% | -100.0% | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $865M | $1.34B | $1.03B | $832M | $868M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/B 3.7x · FCF yield -14.19% · Earnings yield -16.59%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chin Peter Scott | Chief Medical Officer | 1,654 | $37K | 0.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-02 | Thornberry Nancy | Director | 11,439 | $262K | 36.8% | Yes (adopted June 3, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-01 | Schuth Alexander O. | COFO and Secretary | 2,768 | $65K | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 27, 2026) | Routine (sold in Jan & Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-11 | Schuth Alexander O. | COFO and Secretary | 2,857 | $72K | 0.4% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Aug each year 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.95 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 35.5 (low 23, high 42).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | B. Riley Securities | Target raised | Buy | $30 → $35 |
| 2026-08-07 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $25 → $34 |
| 2026-07-23 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $35 → $36 |
| 2026-07-16 | Deutsche Bank | Target raised | Buy | $31 → $35 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +18.3% | -60.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.2% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +18.4% | -16.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 55.5% | 58.0% |
| Max drawdown | -35.3% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -78.6% (Nov 2021→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
ORKA (Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 95.97 +0.17% · LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 318.78 +2.26% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.81 +1.58% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 44.9 +2.14% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 143.51 +0.92% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 89.84 +3.26%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/DNLI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in DNLI's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1714899/000171489926000021/dnli-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO LTD (TAK) | "We have an active collaboration with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited ("Takeda") for the development and commercialization of TAK-594/DNL593 (PTV:PGRN) for FTD-GRN." |
| Partner | BIOGEN INC. (BIIB) | "Denali has an active collaboration with Biogen Inc.'s subsidiaries, Biogen MA Inc. ("BIMA") and Biogen International GmbH ("BIG") (BIMA and BIG, collectively, "Biogen") for the development and commercialization of BIIB12…" |
| Partner | Sanofi (SNY) | "As part of our parallel development strategy, we have also developed peripherally-restricted RIPK1 inhibitor molecules, which are included as part of the collaboration agreement with Sanofi, described in more detail in "…" |
| Partner | F-star | "In August 2016, we entered into a License and Collaboration Agreement ("F-star Collaboration Agreement") with F-star Gamma Limited ("F-star Gamma"), F-star Biotechnologische Forschungs-und Entwicklungsges m.b.H ("F-star …" |
| Partner | Genentech | "In June 2016, we entered into an exclusive license agreement with Genentech, Inc. ("Genentech")." |
| Partner | F-star Gamma | "In August 2016, we entered into a License and Collaboration Agreement ("F-star Collaboration Agreement") with F-star Gamma Limited ("F-star Gamma"), F-star Biotechnologische Forschungs-und Entwicklungsges m.b.H ("F-star …" |
| Partner | Biogen MA | "In August 2020, in connection with our collaboration with Biogen, we entered into a common stock purchase agreement with BIMA, pursuant to which we sold 13,310,243 shares of our common stock to BIMA for an aggregate purc…" |
| Partner | Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) | "In December 2025, we entered into a royalty funding agreement with Royalty Pharma." |
| Partner | F-star Biotechnology | "In August 2016, we entered into a License and Collaboration Agreement ("F-star Collaboration Agreement") with F-star Gamma Limited ("F-star Gamma"), F-star Biotechnologische Forschungs-und Entwicklungsges m.b.H ("F-star …" |
| Partner | LLC and Leerink Partners | "In February 2025, we established a registered "at-the-market" facility for the potential future sale of up to $400.0 million of shares of common stock from time to time by entering into an equity distribution agreement w…" |
| Competitor | Eli Lilly (LLY) | "•Alzheimer's Disease: Treatments currently approved in some geographies for Alzheimer's Disease include the amyloid beta-directed antibody therapies ADUHELM (Biogen), LEQEMBI (Eisai/Biogen), and KISLUNA (Eli Lilly)." |
| Competitor | AbbVie (ABBV) | "Additionally, potentially disease modifying therapeutics are being developed by several large and specialty pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, including Biogen/lonis, Arrowhead, Eli Lilly (including Prevail Ther…" |

Other companies that name DNLI in their own reports (relationship from DNLI's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Passage BIO, Inc. (PASG) | 10-K 2026-03-03 | "Denali Therapeutics Inc., in partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, is conducting a Phase 1/2 clinical trial for their recombinant progranulin protein." |
| partner | Sanofi (SNY) | 20-F 2026-02-17 | "•Denali Therapeutics Inc. (2018): collaboration agreement on the development of multiple molecules with the potential to treat" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Denali expects a Biologics License Application (BLA) submission and potential accelerated approval for zafinofusp alfa for Sanfilippo syndrome type A in 2027."
- "Denali now expects results from the study in 2027, updated from its prior expectation of results by the end of 2026."
- "Dosing of participants with late-onset Pompe disease began in the Phase 1 study of DNL952 in the second quarter of 2026, and initial clinical data are expected in 2027."
- "Initial clinical biomarker data from the ongoing Phase 1b study of DNL628 in participants with Alzheimer's disease are expected in the first half of 2027. 2 DNL921 (ATV:Abeta) for Alzheimer's disease DNL921 is an investigational Antibody TransportVehicle ™ (ATV)-enabled antibody designed for systemic delivery across the blood-brain barrier to target amyloid plaques in Alzheimer's disease."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.37 | $-0.64 | +$0.28 | $22.9M | 17 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.62 | $-0.68 | +$0.06 | $24.5M | 17 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-2.23 | $-2.35 | +$0.12 | $50.7M | 17 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-2.42 | $-2.49 | +$0.07 | $130.6M | 17 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±17.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 23 | 90.0% | ±17.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 51 | 79.7% | ±24.3% |
| 2027-03-19 | 142 | 69.4% | ±35.0% |
| 2027-06-17 | 232 | 78.8% | ±49.5% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.68 | −$0.47 | Miss −44.7% | +1.7% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.69 | −$0.71 | Beat +2.8% | -3.9% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.73 | −$0.75 | Beat +2.7% | -5.0% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.74 | −$0.76 | Beat +2.6% | +0.9% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -5.3% |
| May 6, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -10.4% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -12.3% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +7.1% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1714899/000171489926000097/0001714899-26-000097-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1714899/000171489926000096/0001714899-26-000096-index.htm |
| 2026-08-04 | Schedule 13G/A | BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO: 7.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1714899/000108887526000056/0001088875-26-000056-index.htm |
| 2026-07-28 | 8-K | Completed an acquisition or sale of assets — “On July 27, 2026, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (the "Company") completed the previously disclosed sale (the "Sale") of its Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher (the "PRV") to a large pharmaceutical company. The Company received the PRV when AVLAYAHTM (tividenofusp alfa) was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of Hunter syndrome (mucopolysaccharidosis type II; MPS II) in March 2026. The Sale was completed pursuant to the terms of an asset purchase agreement, dated June 12, 2026…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1714899/000171489926000086/0001714899-26-000086-index.htm |
| 2026-07-08 | Schedule 13G/A | T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.: 10.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1714899/000189761226000525/0001897612-26-000525-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.