# Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/DNUT · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT), nexqual.com/DNUT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 2.95 (+2.43% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 2.88 · day 2.86–2.96 · 52w 2.83–4.75 · market cap $512M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 28, 2026): revenue $1.47B, net income -$90.3M (-6.2% margin), free cash flow $37.3M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $3.0M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.14 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 4.08 (range 3–5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -28.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -76.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.01, revenue estimate $306M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.38B | $1.53B | $1.69B | $1.67B | $1.52B | $1.47B |
| Operating income | $41.1M | $29.0M | $13.1M | -$8.7M | -$469M | -$29.1M |
| Net income | -$24.5M | -$15.6M | -$37.9M | $3.1M | -$516M | -$90.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.18 | -$0.10 | -$0.23 | $0.02 | -$3.04 | — |
| Free cash flow | $21.7M | $28.1M | -$75.9M | -$75.0M | -$64.0M | $37.3M |
| Operating margin | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | -0.5% | -30.8% | -2.0% |
| Net margin | -1.8% | -1.0% | -2.2% | 0.2% | -33.9% | -6.2% |
| Revenue growth | +23.4% | +10.5% | +10.2% | -1.2% | -8.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $38.6M | $35.4M | $38.2M | $29.0M | $42.4M | — |
| Total debt | $717M | $779M | $891M | $901M | $978M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 28, 2026)
P/S 0.3x · EV/EBITDA 13.9x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/FCF 13.7x · P/B 0.8x · FCF yield 7.30% · Earnings yield -17.65% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.00% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.21% · Net debt $843M · EV $1.36B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 550.2x.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 purchases, $3.0M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Hees Bernardo | Director | 25,002 | $87K | 3.49 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01…2026-06-04 | Hees Bernardo | Director | 630,111 | $2.1M | 3.36 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-26…2026-05-28 | Hees Bernardo | Director | 225,077 | $769K | 3.42 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.14 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 4.08 (low 3, high 5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | In-Line | $4.5 → $4 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -28.2% | -76.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -28.3% | -24.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 57.7% | 57.5% |
| Max drawdown | -38.9% (Dec 2025→Sep 2026) | -85.4% (Dec 2021→Jun 2025) |

## Peers (Grocery Stores)
DDL (Dingdong (Cayman) Limited) USD 1.99 -2.45% · VLGEA (Village Super Market, Inc.) USD 45.62 +5.12% · NGVC (Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cott) USD 32.37 +7.65% · YSWY (Yesway, Inc.) USD 24.51 +5.35% · GO (Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.) USD 13.9 +5.70% · IMKTA (Ingles Markets, Incorporated) USD 88.75 +4.24%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/DNUT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in DNUT's own 10-K filed 2026-03-06 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1857154/000185715426000015/dnut-20251228.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | McDonald's (MCD) | "During fiscal 2025, we recorded $39.4 million non-cash long-lived asset impairment charges and $37.0 million non-cash lease impairment and termination costs in response to management's updated forecasts and the terminati…" |
| Partner | USA | "During fiscal 2025, we recorded $39.4 million non-cash long-lived asset impairment charges and $37.0 million non-cash lease impairment and termination costs in response to management's updated forecasts and the terminati…" |
| Partner | BakeMark USA | "We have established an exclusive distribution partnership with BakeMark USA LLC ("BakeMark"), which grants the exclusive rights to BakeMark to distribute ingredients, packaging, and supplies to both Company-owned and fra…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $172.7M | 52.2% | -25.0% |
| International | $117.3M | 35.5% | -11.6% |
| Market Development | $41.0M | 12.4% | +142.3% |
| Total revenue | $331.0M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product sales | $315.7M | 95.4% | -15.0% |
| — Company Shops and Fresh Delivery (part of Product sales) | $289.4M | 87.4% | -20.1% |
| — Mix and equipment revenue from franchisees (part of Product sales) | $26.2M | 7.9% | +185.8% |
| Royalties and other revenues | $15.3M | 4.6% | +82.6% |
| Total revenue | $331.0M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $937.7M | 61.6% | -14.1% |
| All Other | $182.4M | 12.0% | +10.3% |
| United Kingdom | $159.5M | 10.5% | +0.6% |
| Mexico | $125.2M | 8.2% | -1.6% |
| Australia New Zealand | $117.9M | 7.7% | -4.0% |
| Total revenue | $1.52B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.01 | $0.01 | +11.4% | $305.7M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.06 | $0.04 | +30.6% | $340.1M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.01 | $0.02 | -141.1% | $1.33B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.05 | $0.05 | -8.1% | $1.40B | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±14.4%; earnings reaction alone ±11.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±16.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 47.7% | ±6.6% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 87.8% | ±14.4% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 70.8% | ±16.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 72.3% | ±22.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 68.4% | ±26.3% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 76.7% | ±34.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 74.3% | ±37.3% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 72.4% | ±43.2% |