# Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/DUOL · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL), nexqual.com/DUOL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 136.39 (+0.87% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 135.21 · day 131.95–136.7 · 52w 87.89–279.98 · market cap $6.38B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.15B, net income $411M (35.9% margin), free cash flow $408M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.5x (avg 283.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 12 Form 4 filings, $38.8M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($466K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 11 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.79 on a 1–5 scale) (24 analysts), mean target USD 136.57 (range 80–210).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -48.1% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -21.5% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 1.59, revenue estimate $303M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $251M | $369M | $531M | $748M | $1.04B | $1.15B |
| Gross profit | $182M | $270M | $389M | $544M | $749M | — |
| Operating income | -$60.0M | -$65.2M | -$13.3M | $62.6M | $136M | $157M |
| Net income | -$60.1M | -$59.6M | $16.1M | $88.6M | $414M | $411M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.57 | -$1.51 | $0.35 | $1.88 | $8.57 | — |
| Free cash flow | $5.6M | $48.1M | $150M | $273M | $370M | $408M |
| Gross margin | 72.4% | 73.1% | 73.2% | 72.8% | 72.2% | — |
| Operating margin | -23.9% | -17.6% | -2.5% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 13.7% |
| Net margin | -24.0% | -16.1% | 3.0% | 11.8% | 39.9% | 35.9% |
| Revenue growth | +55.1% | +47.3% | +43.7% | +40.8% | +38.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $554M | $608M | $748M | $786M | $1.04B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 15.5x · P/S 5.5x · P/FCF 15.6x · P/B 4.5x · FCF yield 6.42% · Earnings yield 6.46%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 20.5x, Dec 2024 172.4x, Dec 2023 656.8x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
9 of 12 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Von Ahn Luis | President & CEO, Co-Founder | 110,046 | $16.7M | 100% | Yes (adopted June 2, 2026) | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-24 | Von Ahn Luis | President & CEO, Co-Founder | 46,682 | $7.0M | 100% | Yes (adopted June 2, 2026) | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-21…2026-09-22 | Von Ahn Luis | President & CEO, Co-Founder | 40,980 | $6.2M | 100% | Yes (adopted June 2, 2026) | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-16 | Von Ahn Luis | President & CEO, Co-Founder | 28,292 | $4.3M | 100% | Yes (adopted June 2, 2026) | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Stephen C. | General Counsel | 8,072 | $1.2M | 15.6% | Yes (adopted June 14, 2026) | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-08 | Gordon William B | Director | 10,000 | $1.5M | 12.8% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17…2026-08-18 | Glance Natalie | Chief Engineering Officer | 4,290 | $567K | 2.5% | Yes (adopted September 15, 2025) | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Meese Robert | Chief Business Officer | 1,354 | $175K | 0.8% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Chen Stephen C. | General Counsel | 1,024 | $132K | 1.9% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15…2026-05-18 | Chen Stephen C. | General Counsel | 2,797 | $317K | 5% | Yes (adopted May 27, 2025) | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15…2026-05-18 | Glance Natalie | Chief Engineering Officer | 5,289 | $598K | 3% | Yes (adopted September 15, 2025) | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Meese Robert | Chief Business Officer | 1,420 | $159K | 0.8% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.79 on a 1–5 scale), 24 analysts; mean target USD 136.57 (low 80, high 210).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $114 → $135 |
| 2026-09-29 | DA Davidson | Maintained | Buy | $175 |
| 2026-09-14 | DA Davidson | Maintained | Buy | $175 |
| 2026-09-01 | Evercore ISI Group | Upgrade | In-Line → Outperform | $105 → $210 |
| 2026-09-01 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Buy | $160 → $175 |
| 2026-08-27 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $125 → $135 |
| 2026-08-25 | Argus Research | Reiterated | Hold | $146 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wedbush | Target raised | Neutral | $139 → $150 |
| 2026-08-18 | DA Davidson | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $130 → $160 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Underweight | $82 → $80 |
| 2026-08-06 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Neutral | $120 → $130 |
| 2026-08-06 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $125 → $150 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -48.1% | -21.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +79.1% |
| Per year | -48.2% | -4.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 64.9% | 59.4% |
| Max drawdown | -66.7% (Oct 2025→Apr 2026) | -83.0% (May 2025→Apr 2026) |

## Peers (Software - Application)
APPF (AppFolio, Inc.) USD 207.05 +1.00% · TTAN (ServiceTitan, Inc.) USD 80.73 -0.16% · DSGX (The Descartes Systems Group Inc) USD 92.03 -0.36% · YMM (Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.) USD 8.09 +0.12% · PCTY (Paylocity Holding Corporation) USD 168.4 -0.06% · IDCC (InterDigital, Inc.) USD 334.27 +4.28%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/DUOL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in DUOL's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000162828026012494/duol-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "•We rely on third-party hosting and cloud computing providers, like Amazon Web Services ("AWS") and Google Cloud, to operate certain aspects of our business." |
| Supplier | Amazon (AMZN) | "•We rely on third-party hosting and cloud computing providers, like Amazon Web Services ("AWS") and Google Cloud, to operate certain aspects of our business." |
| Supplier | Apple (AAPL) | "We depend on Apple and Google approving our mobile applications to be distributed on their respective platforms." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription | $258.0M | 86.5% | +22.5% |
| Advertising | $21.1M | 7.1% | +2.2% |
| Duolingo English Test | $10.1M | 3.4% | +0.2% |
| IAPs | $8.0M | 2.7% | -23.0% |
| Other | $1.3M | 0.4% | +148.2% |
| Total revenue | $298.5M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non Us | $645.4M | 62.2% | +47.9% |
| United States | $392.2M | 37.8% | +25.9% |
| Total revenue | $1.04B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 59.6%, 23.2%, 11.9% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.58 | $1.54 | +3.0% | $303.1M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.70 | $1.78 | -4.7% | $314.5M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.61 | $6.69 | -1.1% | $1.21B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $7.64 | $7.85 | -2.7% | $1.37B | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±13.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±14.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 1 | 81.2% | ±3.4% |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 | 115.7% | ±13.7% |
| 2026-11-13 | 15 | 93.8% | ±15.1% |
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 81.7% | ±15.9% |
| 2026-11-27 | 29 | 78.2% | ±17.5% |
| 2026-12-04 | 36 | 74.2% | ±18.5% |
| 2026-12-11 | 43 | 70.8% | ±19.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 67.7% | ±19.8% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $1.24 | $1.54 | Miss −19.5% | -11.0% |
| May 4, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $1.45 | $1.63 | Miss −11.0% | -6.5% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $1.59 | $1.68 | Miss −5.4% | -9.5% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $1.59 | $1.68 | Miss −5.4% | -6.1% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $6.80 | $1.59 | Beat +327.7% | -26.1% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +14.8% |
| May 1, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +24.9% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -19.3% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Schedule 13G/A | BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO: 11.3% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000108887526000066/0001088875-26-000066-index.htm |
| 2026-08-19 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000162828026057818/0001628280-26-057818-index.htm |
| 2026-08-12 | Schedule 13G/A | Von Ahn Luis: 8.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000162828026056405/0001628280-26-056405-index.htm |
| 2026-08-12 | Schedule 13G | AQR Capital Management, LLC, AQR Capital Management Holdings, LLC: 5.8% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000116755726000135/0001167557-26-000135-index.htm |
| 2026-08-10 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure — “On August 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Duolingo, Inc. (the "Company") increased the size of the Board from nine to ten directors and appointed Sallie Krawcheck to serve as a Class I director on the Company's Board and as a member of its Audit, Risk and Compliance Committee ("Audit Committee"), in each case, effective immediately. Ms. Krawcheck will serve for a term expiring at the Company's annual meeting of stockholders to be held in 2028 and until her successor is duly elected and qualified…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000162828026055015/0001628280-26-055015-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000162828026053603/0001628280-26-053603-index.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000162828026053299/0001628280-26-053299-index.htm |
| 2026-07-31 | Schedule 13G | Vanguard Capital Management: 5.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562088/000210011926001381/0002100119-26-001381-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.