# Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ECPG · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG), nexqual.com/ECPG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 97.73 (-2.62% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 100.36 · day 95.93–100.16 · 52w 40.52–105.98 · market cap $2.07B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.90B, net income $302M (15.9% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 6.9x (avg 5.0x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends).
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$325M vs operating income $717M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈3.8x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 23.1% effective rate).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold ECPG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.1M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 117 (range 112–124).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +118.2% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y +80.9% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 3.35, revenue estimate $467M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.61B | $1.40B | $1.22B | $1.32B | $1.77B | $1.90B |
| Operating income | $633M | $462M | $16.5M | $157M | $627M | $717M |
| Net income | $351M | $195M | -$206M | -$139M | $257M | $302M |
| EPS (diluted) | $11.26 | $7.46 | -$8.72 | -$5.83 | $10.91 | — |
| Free cash flow | $270M | $173M | $128M | $127M | $127M | $125M |
| Operating margin | 39.2% | 33.1% | 1.4% | 12.0% | 35.4% | 37.7% |
| Net margin | 21.7% | 13.9% | -16.9% | -10.6% | 14.5% | 15.9% |
| Revenue growth | +7.5% | -13.4% | -12.6% | +7.7% | +34.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $190M | $144M | $158M | $200M | $157M | — |
| Total debt | $3.06B | $2.94B | $3.36B | $3.71B | $4.03B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 6.9x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈3.8x · P/S 1.1x · P/FCF 16.6x · P/B 1.9x · FCF yield 6.04% · Earnings yield 14.55%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 5.0x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold ECPG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Avenue Management |  | 1.94% | $12.1M | Reduced -9.0% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10…2026-06-11 | Yung John | President, Intl. and Cabot | 4,000 | $325K | 6% | Yes (adopted March 11, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-09…2026-06-10 | Asch Andrew Eric | SVP, General Counsel | 9,085 | $741K | 29.6% | Yes (adopted March 10, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 117 (low 112, high 124).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $105 → $112 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +118.2% | +80.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | +118.8% | +12.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 34.6% | 36.0% |
| Max drawdown | -10.3% (Aug 2026→Sep 2026) | -59.5% (Jul 2022→Apr 2025) |

## Peers (Credit Services)
WU (Western Union Company (The)) USD 6.34 -1.40% · AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage C) USD 199.64 -0.88% · UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc.) USD 23.78 -0.29% · EZPW (EZCORP, Inc.) USD 28.7 -2.21% · ATLC (Atlanticus Holdings Corporation) USD 86.19 -5.83% · JCAP (Jefferson Capital, Inc.) USD 20.41 -1.35%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ECPG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Additionally, we now expect our EPS in 2026 to be within a range from $13.00 to $14.00 per share, even after absorbing $1.00 per share of refinancing costs in the second quarter."
- "Our guidance for portfolio purchasing remains within a range from $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.35 | $3.18 | +5.4% | $466.8M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.51 | $3.27 | +7.4% | $476.4M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $13.52 | $13.00 | +4.0% | $1.91B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $14.74 | $14.11 | +4.5% | $1.94B | 4 |