# Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/EFC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC), nexqual.com/EFC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 11.63 (+1.84% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 11.42 · day 11.4–11.74 · 52w 11.28–14.12 · market cap $1.53B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $455M, net income $194M (42.6% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 7.9x.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 14.64 (range 14–16).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -2.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +18.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.47, revenue estimate $176M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $151M | $60.0M | $277M | $306M | $336M | $455M |
| Net income | $125M | -$85.3M | $60.9M | $118M | $119M | $194M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.58 | -$1.43 | $0.89 | $1.36 | $1.19 | — |
| Free cash flow | $49.1M | $42.5M | -$242M | -$431M | -$925M | — |
| Net margin | 83.0% | -142.2% | 22.0% | 38.6% | 35.3% | 42.6% |
| Revenue growth | +223.7% | -60.3% | +361.6% | +10.4% | +10.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $92.7M | $217M | $229M | $192M | $202M | — |
| Total debt | $85.8M | $0K | — | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 7.9x · P/S 3.4x · P/B 0.8x · Earnings yield 12.70% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 13.43%

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 14.64 (low 14, high 16).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $15 → $14 |
| 2026-08-19 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $14 → $14.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -2.8% | +18.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -2.8% | +3.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 17.9% | 23.7% |
| Max drawdown | -17.7% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -32.1% (Mar 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) USD 10.58 +3.73% · ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.) USD 12.69 -0.94% · LADR (Ladder Capital Corp) USD 9.32 +4.02% · ORC (Orchid Island Capital, Inc.) USD 4.9 +0.62% · DX (Dynex Capital, Inc.) USD 11.05 -0.00% · ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate F) USD 6.3 -0.63%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/EFC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-07)

- "Other risks, uncertainties, and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected may be described from time to time in reports we file with the SEC, including reports on Forms 10-Q, 10-K and 8-K."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.47 | $0.47 | +0.6% | $176.2M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.48 | $0.47 | +1.3% | $178.9M | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.09 | $1.94 | +8.0% | $681.1M | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.97 | $1.93 | +2.2% | $758.9M | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-18 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±11.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±2.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 27.0% | ±11.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 22.9% | ±13.0% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 23.8% | ±14.4% |