# Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ESTC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Elastic N.V. (ESTC), nexqual.com/ESTC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 98.21 (-0.61% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 98.81 · day 96.97–99.79 · 52w 42.05–108 · market cap $10.3B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 31, 2026): revenue $1.80B, net income $376M (20.8% margin), free cash flow $349M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 27.4x (avg 92.8x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), net cash $890M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 21 Form 4 filings, $430M; 21 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($430M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 11 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.23 on a 1–5 scale) (30 analysts), mean target USD 111.74 (range 75–130).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +12.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -41.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-19, EPS estimate USD 0.81, revenue estimate $487M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $862M | $1.07B | $1.27B | $1.48B | $1.74B | $1.80B |
| Gross profit | $630M | $772M | $937M | $1.10B | $1.32B | — |
| Operating income | -$174M | -$219M | -$130M | -$54.9M | -$33.5M | -$47.6M |
| Net income | -$204M | -$236M | $61.7M | -$108M | $368M | $376M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.20 | -$2.47 | $0.59 | -$1.04 | $3.43 | — |
| Free cash flow | $3.2M | $33.0M | $145M | $262M | $322M | $349M |
| Gross margin | 73.1% | 72.3% | 74.0% | 74.4% | 76.1% | — |
| Operating margin | -20.1% | -20.5% | -10.3% | -3.7% | -1.9% | -2.6% |
| Net margin | -23.6% | -22.1% | 4.9% | -7.3% | 21.1% | 20.8% |
| Revenue growth | +41.7% | +24.0% | +18.6% | +17.0% | +17.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $861M | $644M | $1.08B | $1.40B | $1.37B | — |
| Total debt | $567M | $568M | $569M | $570M | $571M | — |
Fiscal years end Apr. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 31, 2026)
P/E 27.4x · P/S 5.7x · EV/Sales 5.2x · P/FCF 29.5x · P/B 8.0x · FCF yield 3.39% · Earnings yield 3.64% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.69% · Net cash $890M · EV $9.42B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Apr 2026 13.5x, Apr 2024 172.2x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 21 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Schuurman Steven | Director | 2,000,000 | $188M | 44.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-10-05 | Schuurman Steven | Director | 1,500,000 | $135M | 25% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Dodds Mark Eugene | Chief Revenue Officer | 10,000 | $926K | 3.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-14 | Banon Shay | Chief Technology Officer | 84,207 | $7.1M | 1.5% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-09…2026-09-10 | Banon Shay | Chief Technology Officer | 161,787 | $14.0M | 2.8% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-09 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | Chief Executive Officer | 29,227 | $2.6M | 4.6% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-09 | Bone Jane E | GVP & CAO | 1,542 | $135K | 3.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-09 | Herzog Carolyn | Chief Legal Officer | 5,485 | $481K | 4.6% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-09 | Dodds Mark Eugene | Chief Revenue Officer | 9,673 | $849K | 3.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-09 | Welihinda Navam | Chief Financial Officer | 8,961 | $787K | 4.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-03…2026-09-04 | Banon Shay | Chief Technology Officer | 284,285 | $26.6M | 4.7% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-31…2026-09-02 | Banon Shay | Chief Technology Officer | 476,298 | $44.5M | 7.4% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-01 | Bone Jane E | GVP & CAO | 4,176 | $390K | 7.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-01 | Herzog Carolyn | Chief Legal Officer | 10,000 | $937K | 7.8% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | Chief Executive Officer | 40,373 | $2.4M | 6% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Welihinda Navam | Chief Financial Officer | 12,961 | $786K | 5.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-09 | Exner Ken | Chief Product Officer | 18,449 | $1.1M | 4.9% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Herzog Carolyn | Chief Legal Officer | 9,485 | $575K | 6.9% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Dodds Mark Eugene | Chief Revenue Officer | 18,439 | $1.1M | 5.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-09 | Bone Jane E | GVP & CAO | 1,104 | $67K | 2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.23 on a 1–5 scale), 30 analysts; mean target USD 111.74 (low 75, high 130).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Wedbush | Reiterated | Outperform | $125 |
| 2026-10-09 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $107 → $120 |
| 2026-09-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated | Neutral | $100 |
| 2026-08-28 | Scotiabank | Target raised | Sector Perform | $58 → $84 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $80 → $100 |
| 2026-08-28 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $85 → $105 |
| 2026-08-28 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $70 → $95 |
| 2026-08-28 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $104 → $128 |
| 2026-08-28 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $90 → $107 |
| 2026-08-28 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $94 → $118 |
| 2026-08-28 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $85 → $130 |
| 2026-08-28 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $100 → $118 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +12.7% | -41.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +12.7% | -10.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 57.7% | 58.6% |
| Max drawdown | -54.2% (Nov 2025→Apr 2026) | -76.3% (Nov 2021→Apr 2026) |

## Peers (Software - Application)
PCTY (Paylocity Holding Corporation) USD 177.67 +4.93% · PCOR (Procore Technologies, Inc.) USD 62.29 +2.27% · CHYM (Chime Financial, Inc.) USD 30.16 -0.69% · FROG (JFrog Ltd.) USD 93.89 -2.50% · GRAB (Grab Holdings Limited) USD 2.85 +1.06% · BSY (Bentley Systems, Incorporated) USD 39.41 +2.74%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ESTC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ESTC's own 10-K filed 2026-06-08 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1707753/000170775326000018/estc-20260430.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Elasticsearch | "The Elasticsearch Platform ("our platform") combines the precision of search with the intelligence of AI to help our customers and community solve real-time business problems, unlock potential value, and achieve better o…" |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "•Certain cloud hosting providers and MSPs, including AWS, which offer products or services based on a forked version of our platform." |
| Competitor | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "•For Search & AI: providers of traditional search offerings, such as Algolia, Apache Solr (open source offering), and Coveo; native vector databases, such as Pinecone, Qdrant, and Weaviate; database platforms with integr…" |
| Competitor | Microsoft (MSFT) | "•For Search & AI: providers of traditional search offerings, such as Algolia, Apache Solr (open source offering), and Coveo; native vector databases, such as Pinecone, Qdrant, and Weaviate; database platforms with integr…" |
| Competitor | Cisco (CSCO) | "•For Elastic Observability: software vendors with specific observability solutions, such as AppDynamics and Splunk (each owned by Cisco Systems), Datadog, Dynatrace, and New Relic." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-07-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total subscription | $448.7M | 93.9% | +15.5% |
| — SaaS (part of Total subscription) | $235.2M | 49.2% | +20.1% |
| — Saa S Self Managed - Annual (part of Total subscription) | $185.0M | 38.7% | +26.8% |
| — Services (part of Total subscription) | $29.4M | 6.1% | +10.0% |
| Self-managed subscription | $213.5M | 44.7% | +10.7% |
| Saa S Self Managed - Monthly | $50.2M | 10.5% | +0.7% |
| Total revenue | $478.1M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 149% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-07-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $259.0M | 54.2% | +12.5% |
| Non-US | $219.1M | 45.8% | +18.4% |
| Total revenue | $478.1M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-07-31: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-28).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-27)

- "The guidance assumes, among others, the following exchange rates: 1 Euro = 1.166 US Dollars; and 1 Great British Pound = 1.361 US Dollars."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $0.81 | $0.80 | +1.5% | $486.7M | 28 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $0.95 | $0.96 | -1.1% | $517.8M | 27 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-04-30) | $3.36 | $3.24 | +3.6% | $2.01B | 29 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-04-30) | $3.96 | $3.88 | +2.1% | $2.30B | 29 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-19): ±16.3%; last 8 reports averaged ±15.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 71.8% | ±16.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 66.4% | ±21.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 59.4% | ±23.0% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 56.1% | ±25.7% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 56.9% | ±34.3% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 58.2% | ±37.3% |