# Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/EXE · data as of 2026-10-23 16:22 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), nexqual.com/EXE" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 94.22 (+1.35% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 16:22 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 92.96 · day 92.02–94.61 · 52w 83.25–126.62 · market cap $21.8B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $13.6B, net income $2.78B (20.5% margin), free cash flow $2.68B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 7.8x (avg 9.6x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 3.8x, net debt $3.02B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold EXE (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $561K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.97 on a 1–5 scale) (29 analysts), mean target USD 123.37 (range 92–156).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -7.8% vs S&P 500 +14.7%; 5Y +86.6% vs S&P 500 +77.5%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 1.32, revenue estimate $2.01B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2020 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.24B | $11.7B | $8.72B | $4.24B | $12.1B | $13.6B |
| Operating income | -$8.70B | $3.78B | $3.14B | -$803M | $2.47B | $3.66B |
| Net income | -$9.73B | $4.94B | $2.42B | -$714M | $1.82B | $2.78B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$998.26 | $33.36 | $16.92 | -$4.55 | $7.57 | — |
| Free cash flow | $22.0M | $2.30B | $551M | $8.0M | $1.84B | $2.68B |
| Operating margin | -166.1% | 32.2% | 36.0% | -19.0% | 20.4% | 26.9% |
| Net margin | -185.8% | 42.0% | 27.7% | -16.9% | 15.0% | 20.5% |
| Revenue growth | -38.6% | — | -25.7% | -51.4% | +186.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $279M | — | $1.08B | $317M | $616M | — |
| Total debt | $1.93B | $3.09B | $2.03B | $5.68B | $5.01B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 7.8x · P/S 1.6x · EV/EBITDA 3.8x · EV/Sales 1.8x · P/FCF 8.1x · P/B 1.1x · FCF yield 12.28% · Earnings yield 12.75% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 3.51% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.66% · Net debt $3.02B · EV $24.8B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 14.6x, Dec 2023 4.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold EXE. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Marks | Oaktree Capital | 12.64% | $478M | Unchanged |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
4 purchases, $561K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Wichterich Michael | Interim President and CEO | 1,000 | $89K | 88.9 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-04 | Wichterich Michael | Interim President and CEO | 1,000 | $93K | 93.36 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-04 | Teunissen Marcel | EVP & CFO | 2,000 | $186K | 92.88 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-07 | Teunissen Marcel | EVP & CFO | 2,000 | $193K | 96.43 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.97 on a 1–5 scale), 29 analysts; mean target USD 123.37 (low 92, high 156).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $122 → $120 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $129 → $124 |
| 2026-10-06 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $145 → $138 |
| 2026-10-05 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Strong Buy | $147 → $141 |
| 2026-10-05 | Bernstein | Target lowered | Outperform | $160 → $127 |
| 2026-10-05 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $121 → $120 |
| 2026-10-02 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $129 → $122 |
| 2026-10-02 | Jefferies | Target lowered | Buy | $143 → $136 |
| 2026-09-14 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $124 → $129 |
| 2026-09-09 | Raymond James | Target raised | Strong Buy | $145 → $147 |
| 2026-08-26 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Buy | $99 → $113 |
| 2026-08-19 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $131 → $129 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -7.8% | +86.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.7% | +77.5% |
| Per year | -7.8% | +13.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 30.3% | 33.5% |
| Max drawdown | -30.4% (Dec 2025→Sep 2026) | -29.2% (Dec 2025→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas E&P)
TPL (Texas Pacific Land Corporation) USD 342.92 +2.77% · PR (Permian Resources Corporation) USD 25.62 +4.98% · OVV (Ovintiv Inc. (DE)) USD 72.85 +5.12% · APA (APA Corporation) USD 52.28 +5.73% · EQT (EQT Corporation) USD 55.87 +2.19% · AR (Antero Resources Corporation) USD 40.4 +3.48%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/EXE · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in EXE's own 10-K filed 2026-02-18 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895126/000089512626000011/exe-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Momentum Sustainable Ventures | "During the fourth quarter of 2022, we entered into an agreement with Momentum Sustainable Ventures LLC to build a new natural gas gathering pipeline and carbon capture project, the New Generation Gas Gathering pipeline (…" |
| Partner | New Generation Gas Gathering | "During the fourth quarter of 2022, we entered into an agreement with Momentum Sustainable Ventures LLC to build a new natural gas gathering pipeline and carbon capture project, the New Generation Gas Gathering pipeline (…" |
| Partner | ExxonMobil (XOM) | "Under a CO2 services agreement with ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions Onshore Storage, LLC ("Exxon"), NG3 anticipates that it will deliver CO2 to Exxon for capture, additional transportation and storage." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | $1.83B | 61.8% | -9.5% |
| — Natural Gas Sales (part of Oil & Gas) | $1.52B | 51.3% | -13.6% |
| — Natural Gas Liquids Sales (part of Oil & Gas) | $199.0M | 6.7% | +13.1% |
| — Oil Sales (part of Oil & Gas) | $112.0M | 3.8% | +30.2% |
| Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing & Processing | $681.0M | 23.0% | -13.6% |
| — Natural Gas Marketing Sales (part of Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing & Processing) | $591.0M | 20.0% | -17.8% |
| — Oil Marketing Sales (part of Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing & Processing) | $49.0M | 1.7% | +48.5% |
| — Natural Gas Liquids Marketing Sales (part of Natural Gas Gathering Transportation Marketing & Processing) | $41.0M | 1.4% | +13.9% |
| Total revenue | $2.96B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 84.8% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 11% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-18).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-28)

- "In 2026, Expand Energy expects to run 11 – 12 rigs and invest approximately $2.75 – $2.95 billion."
- "Average daily production is expected to be approximately 7.4 – 7.6 Bcfe/d."
- "A detailed breakdown of the Company's 2026 annual capital and operating outlook can be found in the supplemental slides."
- "Conference Call Information A conference call to discuss Expand Energy's second quarter 2026 financial and operating results and 2026 outlook has been scheduled for 9 a.m."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.32 | $1.29 | +2.3% | $2.01B | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.17 | $2.15 | +1.2% | $2.35B | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $8.86 | $8.44 | +5.0% | $9.52B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $9.09 | $8.36 | +8.7% | $10.25B | 11 |