# Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/FICO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), nexqual.com/FICO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 823.27 (+3.53% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 795.21 · day 802.96–828.95 · 52w 586.05–1,858.91 · market cap $17.8B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.39B, net income $815M (34.1% margin), free cash flow $996M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 21.8x (avg 67.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 18.5x, net debt $5.33B.
- 8 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold FICO (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 6 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $1.4M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.38 on a 1–5 scale) (21 analysts), mean target USD 1,007.1 (range 490–1,675).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -49.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +100.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 10.86, revenue estimate $657M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.32B | $1.38B | $1.51B | $1.72B | $1.99B | $2.39B |
| Gross profit | $984M | $1.08B | $1.20B | $1.37B | $1.64B | — |
| Operating income | $505M | $542M | $643M | $734M | $925M | $1.24B |
| Net income | $392M | $374M | $429M | $513M | $652M | $815M |
| EPS (diluted) | $13.40 | $14.18 | $16.93 | $20.45 | $26.54 | — |
| Free cash flow | $416M | $503M | $465M | $624M | $770M | $996M |
| Gross margin | 74.7% | 78.1% | 79.4% | 79.7% | 82.2% | — |
| Operating margin | 38.4% | 39.4% | 42.5% | 42.7% | 46.5% | 51.7% |
| Net margin | 29.8% | 27.1% | 28.4% | 29.9% | 32.7% | 34.1% |
| Revenue growth | +1.7% | +4.6% | +9.9% | +13.5% | +15.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $195M | $133M | $137M | $151M | $134M | — |
| Total debt | $1.26B | $1.85B | $1.86B | $2.21B | $3.06B | — |
Fiscal years end Sep. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 21.8x · P/S 7.4x · EV/EBITDA 18.5x · EV/Sales 9.7x · P/FCF 17.9x · FCF yield 5.60% · Earnings yield 4.58% · Buyback yield (TTM) 20.21% · Net debt $5.33B · EV $23.1B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Sep 2025 56.4x, Sep 2024 95.0x, Sep 2023 51.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
8 of 80 tracked investors hold FICO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valley Forge Capital | Valley Forge Capital Management | 25.77% | $803M | Reduced -12.6% |
| Lindsell Train |  | 10.28% | $270M | Reduced -9.3% |
| Chuck Akre | Akre Capital Management | 8.47% | $432M | Reduced -0.5% |
| AKO Capital |  | 2.88% | $124M | Reduced -18.6% |
| Terry Smith | Fundsmith | 0.16% | $21.4M | New position |
| Yacktman Asset Management |  | 0.09% | $7.4M | Unchanged |
| Jensen Investment Management |  | 0.02% | $884K | Reduced -40.8% |
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | <0.01% | $243K | Reduced -0.5% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Manolis Eva | Director | 967 | $1.4M | 66% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.38 on a 1–5 scale), 21 analysts; mean target USD 1,007.1 (low 490, high 1,675).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $1344 → $1063 |
| 2026-10-16 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $1525 → $1045 |
| 2026-10-13 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Outperform | $1750 → $1230 |
| 2026-10-13 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $1650 → $1100 |
| 2026-10-05 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $950 → $800 |
| 2026-10-02 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $935 → $875 |
| 2026-10-02 | Baird | Target lowered | Outperform | $1549 → $1070 |
| 2026-09-30 | B of A Securities | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $1400 → $700 |
| 2026-09-30 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $1550 → $1150 |
| 2026-09-30 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $1700 → $935 |
| 2026-09-30 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $1350 → $950 |
| 2026-09-22 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $1450 → $1350 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -49.0% | +100.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -49.1% | +14.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 65.6% | 47.1% |
| Max drawdown | -67.9% (Dec 2025→Sep 2026) | -72.2% (Nov 2024→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Software - Application)
U (Unity Software Inc.) USD 40.27 -2.28% · DT (Dynatrace, Inc.) USD 63.37 -2.18% · TYL (Tyler Technologies, Inc.) USD 392.45 +4.44% · DOCU (DocuSign, Inc.) USD 84.41 +3.60% · GWRE (Guidewire Software, Inc.) USD 189.64 +4.26% · SSNC (SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc) USD 89.54 +2.81%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/FICO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in FICO's own 10-K filed 2025-11-07 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814547/000081454725000030/fico-20250930.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor | IBM (IBM) | "In the fraud solutions market for banking, we compete primarily with Nice Actimize, Experian, Pegasystems, BAE Systems Applied Intelligence, SAS, ACI Worldwide, IBM, Feedzai and Featurespace." |
| Competitor | Adobe (ADBE) | "In the marketing services market, we compete with Pegasystems, Equifax, Experian, SAS, Adobe and Salesforce, among others." |
| Competitor | Salesforce (CRM) | "In the marketing services market, we compete with Pegasystems, Equifax, Experian, SAS, Adobe and Salesforce, among others." |

Other companies that name FICO in their own reports (relationship from FICO's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Sunrun Inc. (RUN) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "As of December 31, 2025, the average FICO score of our customers under a Customer Agreement with a monthly payment schedule remained at or above 740, which is generally categorized as a "Very Good" cr…" |
| supplier | CITIGROUP INC (C) | 10-K 2026-02-20 | "(1)Excludes immaterial balances for Canada and for customers for which no FICO scores are available." |
| supplier | Enova International, Inc. (ENVA) | 10-K 2026-02-20 | "Since we designed our system specifically for our specialized products, we believe our system provides more predictive assessments of future loan behavior than traditional credit assessments, such as …" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores | $458.9M | 68.1% | +41.5% | $416.9M | 90.8% |
| Software | $215.3M | 31.9% | +1.5% | $55.0M | 25.6% |
| Total revenue | $674.2M | 100% | — | $362.6M | 53.8% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scores | $458.9M | 68.1% | +41.5% |
| Business To Business Scores | $400.0M | 59.3% | +49.0% |
| On-premises and SaaS software | $197.0M | 29.2% | +4.8% |
| Saa S Products | $128.7M | 19.1% | +21.2% |
| Platform Software | $101.8M | 15.1% | +65.7% |
| Non Platform Software | $95.1M | 14.1% | -24.8% |
| On Premises Products | $68.2M | 10.1% | -16.5% |
| Business To Consumer Scores | $58.9M | 8.7% | +5.4% |
| Professional services | $18.3M | 2.7% | -24.3% |
| Total revenue | $674.2M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 226.5% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $611.9M | 90.8% | +30.2% |
| United States | $552.4M | 81.9% | +30.7% |
| Europe, Middle East and Africa | $41.4M | 6.1% | +0.1% |
| Asia Pacific | $20.8M | 3.1% | -16.2% |
| Total revenue | $674.2M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 181.9% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 10%, 10%, 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-07-29).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $10.86 | $11.48 | -5.4% | $656.9M | 17 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $9.97 | $10.74 | -7.2% | $618.9M | 16 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-09-30) | $42.78 | $43.21 | -1.0% | $2.53B | 21 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-09-30) | $49.14 | $54.55 | -9.9% | $2.77B | 21 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±11.5%; earnings reaction alone ±6.1%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 62.0% | ±7.3% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 70.9% | ±11.5% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 66.4% | ±13.0% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 64.9% | ±14.6% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 62.4% | ±15.6% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 60.9% | ±16.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 59.9% | ±18.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 57.4% | ±22.0% |