# Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/FIX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:02 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX), nexqual.com/FIX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 1,279.37 (-8.70% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 1,401.27 · day 1,260.88–1,357.14 · 52w 791.36–2,073.99 · market cap $45.0B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $12.5B, net income $1.63B (13.0% margin), free cash flow $2.44B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 27.6x (avg 28.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 19.8x, net cash $2.11B.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold FIX (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 11 Form 4 filings, $103M; 11 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($103M); 3 by opportunistic insiders (3 outside 10b5-1 plans), 3 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.10 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 2,163.38 (range 1,875–2,500).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +55.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +1451.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD 13.15, revenue estimate $3.46B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.07B | $4.14B | $5.21B | $7.03B | $9.10B | $12.5B |
| Gross profit | $563M | $742M | $991M | $1.48B | $2.20B | — |
| Operating income | $188M | $254M | $418M | $749M | $1.31B | $2.09B |
| Net income | $143M | $246M | $323M | $522M | $1.02B | $1.63B |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.93 | $6.82 | $9.01 | $14.60 | $28.88 | — |
| Free cash flow | $158M | $253M | $545M | $738M | $1.03B | $2.44B |
| Gross margin | 18.3% | 17.9% | 19.0% | 21.0% | 24.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 16.7% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 13.0% |
| Revenue growth | +7.6% | +34.7% | +25.8% | +35.0% | +29.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $58.8M | $57.2M | $205M | $550M | $982M | — |
| Total debt | $388M | $256M | $44.2M | $68.3M | $145M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 27.6x · P/S 3.6x · EV/EBITDA 19.8x · EV/Sales 3.4x · P/FCF 18.4x · P/B 13.5x · FCF yield 5.42% · Earnings yield 3.62% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.23% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.97% · Net cash $2.11B · EV $42.9B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 32.3x, Dec 2024 29.0x, Dec 2023 22.8x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold FIX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.20% | $25.8M | Unchanged |
| Sarah Ketterer | Causeway Capital Management | <0.01% | $321K | Reduced -12.0% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Lane Brian E. | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF. | 16,024 | $25.8M | 9.9% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | George William Iii | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | 2,554 | $4.7M | 7.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-10…2026-08-11 | Myers Franklin | Director | 7,500 | $12.7M | 10.1% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-24 | Myers Franklin | Director | 6,700 | $13.1M | 8.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-27 | Hardy Rhoman J | Director | 342 | $650K | 15.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-08…2026-05-11 | George William Iii | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | 5,000 | $9.8M | 13.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-11 | Shaeff Julie | CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER | 1,123 | $2.2M | 8.2% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-07 | Myers Franklin | Director | 4,500 | $8.6M | 5.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-05 | Lane Brian E. | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF. | 11,113 | $21.9M | 6.5% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-30 | Mercado, Pablo G. | Director | 500 | $890K | 14.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-29 | Sandbrook William J | Director | 1,500 | $2.6M | 16.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.10 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 2,163.38 (low 1,875, high 2,500).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $2110 → $2125 |
| 2026-08-21 | DA Davidson | Initiated | Buy | $2100 |
| 2026-07-27 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $2125 → $2225 |
| 2026-07-27 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $2004 → $2110 |
| 2026-07-09 | Goldman Sachs | Initiated | Buy | $2159 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +55.4% | +1451.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +55.6% | +72.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 57.9% | 43.4% |
| Max drawdown | -38.1% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -45.4% (Jan 2025→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Engineering & Construction)
FER (Ferrovial N.V.) USD 49.71 -0.62% · EME (EMCOR Group, Inc.) USD 660.41 -5.54% · PWR (Quanta Services, Inc.) USD 552.44 -8.10% · APG (APi Group Corporation) USD 38.8 -3.51% · J (Jacobs Solutions Inc.) USD 146.26 +2.65% · MTZ (MasTec, Inc.) USD 171.55 -5.20%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/FIX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in FIX's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926017530/fix-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | At Comfort Systems USA | "At Comfort Systems USA, Inc., our core purpose is to "Build Legacies" with our people, customers, and the companies who join us." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Construction | $2.87B | 76.2% | +79.6% | — | — |
| Mechanical | $2.58B | 68.6% | +42.7% | $469.6M | 18.2% |
| Electrical | $1.18B | 31.4% | +84.8% | $173.6M | 14.7% |
| Existing Building Construction | $528.3M | 14.0% | +0.2% | — | — |
| Service Projects | $190.6M | 5.1% | +26.7% | — | — |
| Service Calls Maintenance & Monitoring | $179.2M | 4.8% | +1.8% | — | — |
| Total revenue | $3.77B | 100% | — | $624.6M | 16.6% |
The lines above cover 200% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechanical | $2.58B | 68.6% | +42.7% |
| Electrical | $1.18B | 31.4% | +84.8% |
| Total revenue | $3.77B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 12.8% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-19).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $13.15 | $11.64 | +13.0% | $3.46B | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $12.51 | $11.74 | +6.5% | $3.39B | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $49.03 | $43.63 | +12.4% | $12.99B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $60.22 | $54.17 | +11.2% | $15.46B | 10 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 76.2% | ±18.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 68.0% | ±22.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 64.0% | ±25.8% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 64.3% | ±30.7% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 61.5% | ±35.3% |