# Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/FLO · data as of 2026-10-23 13:32 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO), nexqual.com/FLO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 6.37 (-0.93% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 13:32 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 6.43 · day 6.35–6.42 · 52w 5.4–12.87 · market cap $1.35B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 18, 2026): revenue $5.22B, net income $55.2M (1.1% margin), free cash flow $306M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 24.5x (avg 28.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 9.6x, net debt $1.63B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $26K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($26K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $38K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -44.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -66.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.15, revenue estimate $1.18B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.33B | $4.81B | $5.09B | $5.10B | $5.26B | $5.22B |
| Operating income | $295M | $303M | $173M | $348M | $174M | $143M |
| Net income | $206M | $228M | $123M | $248M | $83.8M | $55.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.97 | $1.07 | $0.58 | $1.17 | $0.40 | — |
| Free cash flow | $209M | $192M | $220M | $281M | $319M | $306M |
| Operating margin | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| Net margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Revenue growth | -1.3% | +11.0% | +5.9% | +0.2% | +3.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $186M | $165M | $22.5M | $5.0M | $12.1M | — |
| Total debt | $891M | $892M | $1.05B | $1.02B | $1.76B | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 18, 2026)
P/E 24.5x · P/S 0.3x · EV/EBITDA 9.6x · EV/Sales 0.6x · P/FCF 4.4x · P/B 1.0x · FCF yield 22.68% · Earnings yield 4.09% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 13.75% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.28% · Net debt $1.63B · EV $2.98B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jan 2026 28.9x, Dec 2024 17.7x, Dec 2023 38.9x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Cox Cindy | Chief Human Resources Officer | 4,400 | $26K | 9.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $38K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Scaglione Diego Anthony | Chief Financial Officer | 5,000 | $38K | 7.51 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | BNP Paribas | Target lowered | Underperform | $6.5 → $5 |
| 2026-10-06 | Jefferies | Target lowered | Hold | $7 → $6 |
| 2026-08-24 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $8 → $6 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -44.7% | -66.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -44.7% | -19.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 40.2% | 26.0% |
| Max drawdown | -52.9% (Oct 2025→Sep 2026) | -77.0% (Nov 2022→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Packaged Foods)
INGR (Ingredion Incorporated) USD 97 -0.19% · CPB (The Campbell's Company) USD 21.18 -0.40% · PPC (Pilgrim's Pride Corporation) USD 28.09 -0.02% · CAG (ConAgra Brands, Inc.) USD 15.12 +0.30% · SFD (Smithfield Foods, Inc.) USD 18.84 +0.16% · LW (Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.) USD 55.21 +0.05%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/FLO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in FLO's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1128928/000119312526071441/flo-20260103.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Walmart (WMT) | "During Fiscal 2025, our largest customer, Walmart/Sam's Club, represented 21.5% of the company's sales." |
| Customer | Simple Mills | "Our Simple Mills products are produced by co-manufacturers and shipped to central warehouses for distribution to our customers or pick up by the customer." |

## Revenue by product line (fiscal year ended 2026-01-03)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Retail | $3.46B | 65.9% | +6.2% |
| Other | $1.79B | 34.1% | -2.7% |
| Total revenue | $5.26B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-01-03: 21.5% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-25).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-20)

- "Outlook: 52-week Fiscal 2026, the Company Expects: • Net sales of approximately $5.070 billion to $5.142 billion, representing a -3.5% to -2.2% change compared to the prior year."
- "Prior guidance called for net sales of approximately $5.163 billion to $5.267 billion. • Adjusted EBITDA (3) in the range of approximately $453 million to $481 million, compared to prior guidance of $465 million to $495 million. • Adjusted diluted EPS (2) of approximately $0.75 to $0.85 per share, compared to prior guidance of $0.80 to $0.90 per share."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.15 | $0.18 | -14.0% | $1.18B | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.13 | $0.15 | -11.6% | $1.13B | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.77 | $0.83 | -7.4% | $5.08B | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.68 | $0.83 | -17.4% | $5.06B | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±18.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 38.8% | ±18.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 47.6% | ±25.0% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 43.1% | ±29.7% |