# Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/FLY · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY), nexqual.com/FLY" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 19.87 (+0.10% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 19.85 · day 19.5–20.74 · 52w 15.99–62.17 · market cap $3.33B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $287M, net income -$363M (-126.6% margin), free cash flow -$326M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $384M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($384M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.27 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 38 (range 25–50).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -18.8% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y -60.4% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-10, EPS estimate USD -0.5, revenue estimate $103M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-10
- Dividend: FLY paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 13.30% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 3.8 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $55.2M | $60.8M | $160M | $287M |
| Gross profit | $26.6M | -$11.4M | $30.7M | — |
| Operating income | -$132M | -$209M | -$261M | -$339M |
| Net income | -$135M | -$231M | -$298M | -$363M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$13.05 | -$20.74 | -$4.83 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$171M | -$190M | -$238M | -$326M |
| Gross margin | 48.2% | -18.7% | 19.2% | — |
| Operating margin | -238.8% | -344.5% | -163.1% | -118.0% |
| Net margin | -245.2% | -380.2% | -186.6% | -126.6% |
| Revenue growth | — | +10.1% | +163.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $81.9M | $123M | $893M | — |
| Total debt | — | $119M | $289M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 11.6x · EV/Sales 9.5x · P/B 2.7x · FCF yield -9.82% · Earnings yield -10.93% · Net cash $608M · EV $2.72B

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Aeroequity Gp, Llc |  | 8,000,000 | $384M | 31.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-18 | Wheeler David Leigh | General Counsel | 3,765 | $170K | 2.6% | Yes (adopted December 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-17 | Wheeler David Leigh | General Counsel | 3,766 | $170K | 2.6% | Yes (adopted December 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.27 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 38 (low 25, high 50).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Barclays | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $34 |
| 2026-08-12 | Roth Capital | Target lowered | Buy | $60 → $45 |
| 2026-08-12 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $60 → $50 |
| 2026-08-12 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated | Overweight | $35 |
| 2026-07-27 | Wells Fargo | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $25 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2025-08-04) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -18.8% | -60.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | -18.9% | -52.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 107.1% | 99.5% |
| Max drawdown | -72.3% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -66.6% (Aug 2025→Oct 2026) |

## Dividends
FLY paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
13,480,890 shares sold short, 13.30% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 11,105,681 shares (+21.4%). Days to cover: 3.8 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
SARO (StandardAero, Inc.) USD 23.79 +7.11% · KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solut) USD 43.59 +5.88% · CAE (CAE Inc) USD 26.27 +1.98% · DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.) USD 39.64 +11.66% · MOG-A (Moog Inc.) USD 362.81 +4.41% · HII (Huntington Ingalls Industries, ) USD 316.21 +13.23%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/FLY · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in FLY's own 10-K filed 2026-03-20 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860160/000119312526116309/fly-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | SciTec | "SciTec's standalone AI-enabled software, sensor, and data processing solutions for missile tracking, big data processing, and other applications have the potential to be incorporated into our Blue Ghost and Elytra vehicl…" |
| Customer | L3 Harris Technologies | "Additionally, we have built a robust portfolio of contracts composed of blue-chip customers across both government and commercial end markets including NASA, the USSF, the DoW's SDA, the NRO, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed M…" |
| Customer | True Anomaly | "Additionally, we have built a robust portfolio of contracts composed of blue-chip customers across both government and commercial end markets including NASA, the USSF, the DoW's SDA, the NRO, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed M…" |
| Partner | Lockheed Martin (LMT) | "Our collaborations with leading national security agencies and aerospace companies, such as Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, USSF, Space Development Agency ("SDA"), NRO, and NASA demonstrate the v…" |
| Partner | Swedish Space | "We currently operate a launch site at the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, and we are continuing to build out our launch infrastructure with a project currently underway at Virginia's Mid-Atlantic Regional Spac…" |
| Partner | SpaceX | "SpaceX: We also have a strong strategic partnership with SpaceX for payload processing facilities and launch vehicles." |

Other companies that name FLY in their own reports (relationship from FLY's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | Planet Labs PBC (PL) | 10-K 2026-03-23 | "There are also a limited number of suppliers able to launch our satellites, including ArianeSpace SA, Blue Origin, LLC, Firefly Aerospace Inc., ISAR Aerospace Technologies Inc., Mitsubishi Heavy Indus…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-11)

- "Full-Year Guidance • Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.50 | $-0.51 | +$0.02 | $103.2M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.49 | $-0.48 | −$0.01 | $136.9M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.87 | $-2.11 | +$0.24 | $438.5M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-1.80 | $-1.29 | −$0.51 | $686.1M | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-13 (includes earnings 2026-11-10): ±18.7%; earnings reaction alone ±14.0%; last 5 reports averaged ±5.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 1 | 140.2% | ±4.1% |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 | 76.7% | ±9.4% |
| 2026-11-13 | 15 | 112.8% | ±18.7% |
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 107.9% | ±21.6% |
| 2026-11-27 | 29 | 105.6% | ±24.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 36 | 97.3% | ±24.9% |
| 2026-12-11 | 43 | 96.9% | ±27.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 89.1% | ±26.9% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.42 | −$0.53 | Beat +20.8% | +3.0% |
| May 4, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.46 | −$0.52 | Beat +11.5% | -6.7% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.38 | −$0.48 | Beat +20.8% | +0.1% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.55 | −$0.44 | Miss −25.0% | +12.0% |
| Sep 22, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -7.2% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “Resignation of Director On September 30, 2026, Thomas Zurbuchen notified the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (the "Company") of his decision to resign as a director of the Company, effective September 30, 2026. Dr. Zurbuchen's resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company or its management on any matter relating to the Company's operations, policies or practices. The Board thanks Dr. Zurbuchen for his service and contributions to the Board and wishes him well in his…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860160/000119312526415543/0001193125-26-415543-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | Markusic Thomas E: 5.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860160/000143774926028041/0001437749-26-028041-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | AeroEquity GP, LLC, Mitsui & Co., LTD.: 30.3% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860160/000119312526352465/0001193125-26-352465-index.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860160/000186016026000023/0001860160-26-000023-index.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | Schedule 13G/A | Astera Institute, Jed McCaleb: 6.9% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860160/000110465926094059/0001104659-26-094059-index.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860160/000186016026000022/0001860160-26-000022-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.