# Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/FOUR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:01 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR), nexqual.com/FOUR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 40.17 (+1.67% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 39.51 · day 39.32–40.65 · 52w 34.56–77.5 · market cap $3.17B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $4.78B, net income $105M (2.2% margin), free cash flow $573M (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold FOUR (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 2 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $15.9M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.44 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 52.86 (range 40–94).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -47.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -47.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 1.37, revenue estimate $1.34B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.37B | $1.99B | $2.56B | $3.33B | $4.18B | $4.78B |
| Gross profit | $278M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | -$49.2M | $94.7M | $115M | $247M | $351M | $388M |
| Net income | -$48.2M | $75.1M | $86.0M | $230M | $119M | $105M |
| Free cash flow | -$5.2M | $267M | $332M | $493M | $624M | $573M |
| Gross margin | 20.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | -3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| Net margin | -3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| Revenue growth | +78.3% | +45.8% | +28.7% | +29.9% | +25.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.23B | $703M | $455M | $1.21B | $964M | — |
| Total debt | $1.74B | $1.77B | $1.75B | $2.84B | $4.55B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)

P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 0.7x, Dec 2024 0.8x, Dec 2023 1.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold FOUR. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 2.09% | $215M | Reduced -28.3% |
| Bill Miller | Miller Value Partners | 0.34% | $1.5M | Reduced -0.2% |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $15.9M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11…2026-05-12 | Isaacman Jared |  | 388,500 | $15.9M | 41.04 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.44 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 52.86 (low 40, high 94).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Outperform | $51 → $50 |
| 2026-10-13 | BTIG | Target lowered | Buy | $60 → $50 |
| 2026-10-06 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $96 → $94 |
| 2026-10-05 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $78 → $63 |
| 2026-09-24 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $55 → $46 |
| 2026-09-21 | StoneX | Target lowered | Buy | $67 → $56 |
| 2026-09-11 | RBC Capital | Reiterated | Outperform | $67 |
| 2026-08-31 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $63 → $67 |
| 2026-08-27 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Hold | $50 → $49 |
| 2026-08-25 | Wells Fargo | Upgrade | Equal-Weight → Overweight | $55 → $59 |
| 2026-08-24 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $120 → $96 |
| 2026-08-10 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Buy | $74 → $68 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -47.1% | -47.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -47.3% | -12.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 65.7% | 56.6% |
| Max drawdown | -53.6% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) | -70.2% (Feb 2025→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Software - Infrastructure)
PAY (Paymentus Holdings, Inc.) USD 34.07 +3.06% · DLO (DLocal Limited) USD 14.84 -2.05% · BLSH (Bullish) USD 29.19 -1.95% · TENB (Tenable Holdings, Inc.) USD 42 +3.27% · BB (BlackBerry Limited) USD 8.59 -8.71% · RELY (Remitly Global, Inc.) USD 25.32 -0.39%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/FOUR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in FOUR's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1794669/000179466926000010/four-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | General | "We, our partners and certain of our merchants provide services that may be subject to various state, federal, and foreign privacy laws and regulations, including, among others, the Financial Services Modernization Act of…" |
| Partner | Shift Payments | "On February 7, 2026, we entered into a Transaction Agreement with Shift Payments, LLC, our Founder, and Rook (the "Transaction Agreement") to effect, among other things, the collapse of our former "Up-C" structure (the "…" |
| Partner | Rook Holdings | "On February 7, 2026, we entered into a Transaction Agreement with Shift Payments, LLC, our Founder, and Rook (the "Transaction Agreement") to effect, among other things, the collapse of our former "Up-C" structure (the "…" |
| Competitor | Shopify (SHOP) | "For certain services and solutions, including end-to-end payments, we compete with non-integrated payment processors (such as Chase Paymentech, Elavon, Worldpay, Fiserv and Global Payments) and integrated payment provide…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payments-based revenue | $1.07B | 82.9% | +23.6% |
| TFS revenue | $117.0M | 9.0% | — |
| Subscription and other revenue | $105.0M | 8.1% | +7.1% |
| Total revenue | $1.29B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $3.31B | 79.2% | +13.8% |
| Non Us | $868.0M | 20.8% | +106.7% |
| Total revenue | $4.18B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.37 | $1.62 | -16.0% | $1.34B | 22 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.54 | $1.72 | -10.1% | $1.37B | 21 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $5.20 | $5.56 | -6.6% | $5.12B | 24 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $6.11 | $6.73 | -9.2% | $5.80B | 25 |