# Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/FPS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS), nexqual.com/FPS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 24.92 (-21.54% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 31.76 · day 23.16–27.31 · 52w 23.16–66 · market cap $7.95B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 91.0x, net debt $485M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold FPS (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $0K; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.08 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 54.67 (range 44–76).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -14.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -26.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-12, EPS estimate USD 0.2, revenue estimate $459M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $753M | $1.42B | — |
| Gross profit | $278M | $498M | — |
| Operating income | $72.2M | $182M | — |
| Net income | $15.2M | $81.8M | $87.4M |
| Free cash flow | -$39.1M | -$6.8M | — |
| Gross margin | 36.9% | 35.0% | — |
| Operating margin | 9.6% | 12.9% | — |
| Net margin | 2.0% | 5.8% | — |
| Revenue growth | — | +88.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $111M | $97.5M | — |
| Total debt | $502M | $582M | — |
Fiscal years end Jun. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 91.0x · P/B 14.1x · Earnings yield 1.10% · Net debt $485M · EV $8.43B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold FPS. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.02% | $2.8M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, Lp | Director | 43,650,000 | $0K | 34.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, Lp | Director | 43,650,000 | $0K | 34.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, Lp | Director | 43,650,000 | $0K | 34.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, Lp | Director | 48,622,000 | $0K | 30.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, Lp | Director | 48,622,000 | $0K | 30.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, Lp | Director | 48,622,000 | $0K | 30.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.08 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 54.67 (low 44, high 76).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $56 → $49 |
| 2026-10-02 | Bernstein | Initiated | Outperform | $48 |
| 2026-09-25 | Wells Fargo | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $44 |
| 2026-09-16 | Oppenheimer | Reiterated | Outperform | $60 |
| 2026-09-16 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $73 → $76 |
| 2026-07-16 | Baird | Initiated | Outperform | $55 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2026-02-05) | 5Y (from 2026-02-02) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -14.1% | -26.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | — | — |
| Volatility (annualized) | 86.5% | 75.0% |
| Max drawdown | -61.4% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -60.7% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Electrical Equipment & Parts)
AEIS (Advanced Energy Industries, Inc) USD 216.64 -12.49% · AYI (Acuity Inc.) USD 317.23 +0.15% · ENS (EnerSys) USD 168.67 -4.65% · POWL (Powell Industries, Inc.) USD 150.71 -11.51% · NVT (nVent Electric plc) USD 127.67 -12.63% · HUBB (Hubbell Inc) USD 445.8 -3.25%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/FPS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in FPS's own 10-K filed 2026-09-15 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000035/fps-20260630.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | States Manufacturing | "We purchase some raw materials used in our products, including electrical steel, carbon steel, aluminum, copper and specialized insulation materials, as well as key components such as circuit breakers outside of the Unit…" |
| Competitor | Vertiv (VRT) | "In the Data Center market, we compete with Vertiv Holdings Co.'s power management products business;" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-03-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Custom products | $259.3M | 68.5% | +82.4% |
| Powertrain solutions | $98.9M | 26.1% | +248.0% |
| Standard products | $13.2M | 3.5% | +53.2% |
| Services | $7.3M | 1.9% | +4.1% |
| Total revenue | $378.7M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 11% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-09-15).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-22)

- "The Company's fiscal first quarter 2027 revenues and Adjusted EBITDA will exceed the high end of its previously provided guidance ranges."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.20 | $0.23 | -12.3% | $459.5M | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.27 | $0.24 | +11.8% | $559.2M | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-06-30) | $1.35 | $1.16 | +16.6% | $2.54B | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-06-30) | $2.02 | $1.77 | +14.3% | $3.41B | 12 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-13 (includes earnings 2026-11-12): ±22.7%; earnings reaction alone ±5.9%; last 3 reports averaged ±13%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 119.1% | ±14.1% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 115.5% | ±16.7% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 116.2% | ±22.7% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 111.4% | ±25.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 91.5% | ±25.6% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 106.0% | ±28.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 98.1% | ±30.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 91.4% | ±34.8% |