# Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/FRPT · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT), nexqual.com/FRPT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 67 (+7.06% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 62.58 · day 62.83–67.37 · 52w 46.45–86 · market cap $3.22B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.18B, net income $203M (17.3% margin), free cash flow $61.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.8x (avg 91.5x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $62.9M vs operating income $95.4M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈22.9x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 0% effective rate).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold FRPT (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 10 Form 4 filings, $33.2M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 7 Form 4 filings, $523K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.11 on a 1–5 scale) (18 analysts), mean target USD 83.31 (range 67–104).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +23.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -56.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.36, revenue estimate $310M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $425M | $595M | $767M | $975M | $1.10B | $1.18B |
| Gross profit | $162M | $186M | $251M | $396M | $450M | — |
| Operating income | -$24.7M | -$52.0M | -$30.4M | $38.0M | $75.7M | $95.4M |
| Net income | -$29.7M | -$59.5M | -$33.6M | $46.9M | $139M | $203M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.69 | -$1.29 | -$0.70 | $0.93 | $2.64 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$321M | -$273M | -$163M | -$32.8M | $12.4M | $61.0M |
| Gross margin | 38.1% | 31.2% | 32.7% | 40.6% | 40.8% | — |
| Operating margin | -5.8% | -8.7% | -4.0% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% |
| Net margin | -7.0% | -10.0% | -4.4% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 17.3% |
| Revenue growth | +33.5% | +39.9% | +28.8% | +27.2% | +13.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $72.8M | $153M | $297M | $269M | — | — |
| Total debt | $0K | $0K | $393M | $395M | $397M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 15.8x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈22.9x · P/S 2.7x · P/FCF 52.7x · P/B 2.6x · FCF yield 1.90% · Earnings yield 6.32%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 24.5x, Dec 2024 158.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold FRPT. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn Welling | Engaged Capital | 8.87% | $28.7M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
10 of 10 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 39,664 | $3.0M | 6.2% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-21…2026-08-24 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 87,905 | $6.6M | 13.4% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-19 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 44,078 | $3.3M | 8.3% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 44,067 | $3.2M | 9% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-14 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 44,069 | $3.2M | 9.8% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-22 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 46,814 | $2.4M | 11.3% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-20 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 47,582 | $2.3M | 12.6% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15…2026-05-18 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 94,364 | $4.6M | 24.3% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-13 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 46,818 | $2.3M | 17.6% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Cyr William B. | Chief Executive Officer | 46,502 | $2.4M | 20.3% | Yes (adopted November 5, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
7 purchases, $523K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | George Walter N. | Director | 1,000 | $65K | 64.92 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-05-20 | Brewster Daryl G | Director | 211 | $10K | 47.52 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-20 | Steeneck Craig D. | Director | 2,000 | $96K | 47.83 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-18 | McLevish Timothy R | Director | 3,000 | $146K | 48.67 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-18 | Biegger David | Director | 1,000 | $49K | 49.14 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-18 | Kelley Jacki Sue | Director | 1,000 | $48K | 48.05 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-08 | George Walter N. | Director | 2,000 | $109K | 54.67 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.11 on a 1–5 scale), 18 analysts; mean target USD 83.31 (low 67, high 104).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $85 → $80 |
| 2026-10-05 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $82 → $77 |
| 2026-10-01 | Needham | Initiated | Hold |  |
| 2026-08-06 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Buy | $101 → $95 |
| 2026-08-06 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $80 → $85 |
| 2026-08-06 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $66 → $78 |
| 2026-08-06 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Overweight → Equal-Weight | $77 → $72 |
| 2026-07-28 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $68 → $72 |
| 2026-07-08 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $75 → $70 |
| 2026-07-01 | B of A Securities | Target lowered | Neutral | $75 → $70 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +23.6% | -56.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +23.7% | -15.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Max drawdown | -44.6% (Mar 2026→May 2026) | -74.7% (Oct 2021→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Packaged Foods)
INGR (Ingredion Incorporated) USD 97.18 +1.57% · CPB (The Campbell's Company) USD 21.26 +8.69% · PPC (Pilgrim's Pride Corporation) USD 28.09 +1.23% · CAG (ConAgra Brands, Inc.) USD 15.07 +7.34% · SFD (Smithfield Foods, Inc.) USD 18.81 +2.79% · LW (Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.) USD 55.18 +3.90%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/FRPT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in FRPT's own 10-K filed 2026-02-23 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611647/000161164726000006/frpt-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Walmart (WMT) | "In 2025, our largest distributor by net sales accounted for less than 10% of our net sales and our largest customers, Walmart and Costco, accounted for 25% and 10% of our net sales, respectively." |
| Customer | Costco (COST) | "In 2025, our largest distributor by net sales accounted for less than 10% of our net sales and our largest customers, Walmart and Costco, accounted for 25% and 10% of our net sales, respectively." |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 25%, 12%, 7% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-05).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.36 | $0.37 | -4.7% | $310.3M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.56 | $0.62 | -10.2% | $312.8M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.67 | $1.68 | -0.9% | $1.23B | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.94 | $1.80 | +7.7% | $1.33B | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±13.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 60.1% | ±13.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 56.5% | ±17.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 51.9% | ±19.9% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 55.7% | ±25.1% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 56.2% | ±33.5% |