# First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/FWRG · data as of 2026-10-23 14:11 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG), nexqual.com/FWRG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 11.13 (-3.72% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 14:11 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 11.56 · day 11.12–11.51 · 52w 9.88–18.77 · market cap $687M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 28, 2026): revenue $1.32B, net income $17.8M (1.4% margin), free cash flow -$20.9M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 38.6x (avg 52.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 8.4x, net debt $257M.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -38.2% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -48.4% vs S&P 500 +77.0%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.03, revenue estimate $349M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $601M | $730M | $892M | $1.02B | $1.22B | $1.32B |
| Operating income | $22.2M | $16.9M | $41.3M | $38.9M | $27.5M | $28.2M |
| Net income | -$2.1M | $6.9M | $25.4M | $18.9M | $19.4M | $17.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.04 | $0.11 | $0.41 | $0.30 | $0.31 | — |
| Free cash flow | $27.7M | $718K | $12.0M | -$12.2M | -$31.0M | -$20.9M |
| Operating margin | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Net margin | -0.4% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Revenue growth | +75.6% | +21.5% | +22.1% | +13.9% | +20.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $51.9M | $49.7M | $49.6M | $33.3M | $21.2M | — |
| Total debt | $99.8M | $94.7M | $120M | $189M | $269M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 28, 2026)
P/E 38.6x · P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 8.4x · EV/Sales 0.7x · P/B 1.1x · FCF yield -3.04% · Earnings yield 2.59% · Net debt $257M · EV $944M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 48.8x, Dec 2024 61.3x, Dec 2023 48.5x.

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $20 → $19 |
| 2026-10-16 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Strong Buy | $20 → $18 |
| 2026-10-15 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Overweight | $21 → $18 |
| 2026-10-02 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Buy | $17 → $15 |
| 2026-08-07 | Guggenheim | Target lowered | Buy | $21 → $20 |
| 2026-08-05 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $21 → $20 |
| 2026-07-01 | Freedom Capital Markets | Initiated | Buy | $17 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -38.2% | -48.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +77.0% |
| Per year | -38.2% | -12.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 54.6% | 47.8% |
| Max drawdown | -45.5% (Nov 2025→Sep 2026) | -60.0% (Feb 2024→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
CNNE (Cannae Holdings, Inc.) USD 16.27 -1.00% · BLMN (Bloomin' Brands, Inc.) USD 9.69 -5.65% · SG (Sweetgreen, Inc.) USD 10.02 -2.01% · WEN (Wendy's Company (The)) USD 6.27 -4.57% · BJRI (BJ's Restaurants, Inc.) USD 56.43 -4.01% · BH (Biglari Holdings Inc.) USD 390 -1.35%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/FWRG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in FWRG's own 10-K filed 2026-02-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1789940/000178994026000014/fwrg-20251228.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Apple (AAPL) | "Through a QR code on our receipts, customers can seamlessly pay using Apple Pay, Google Pay or a credit or debit card, reducing bottlenecks at host stands, particularly during peak weekend hours." |
| Customer | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "Through a QR code on our receipts, customers can seamlessly pay using Apple Pay, Google Pay or a credit or debit card, reducing bottlenecks at host stands, particularly during peak weekend hours." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurant sales | $351.5M | 99.1% | +15.2% |
| — In-restaurant dining sales (part of Restaurant sales) | $284.3M | 80.2% | +14.9% |
| — Third-party delivery sales (part of Restaurant sales) | $41.3M | 11.7% | +20.0% |
| — Take-out sales (part of Restaurant sales) | $25.8M | 7.3% | +11.8% |
| Franchise revenues | $3.2M | 0.9% | +9.9% |
| — Royalty and system fund contributions (part of Franchise revenues) | $3.1M | 0.9% | +26.8% |
| — Initial fees (part of Franchise revenues) | $82,000 | 0.0% | +49.1% |
| Total revenue | $354.7M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "(2) We have not reconciled guidance for Adjusted EBITDA to the corresponding GAAP financial measure because we do not provide guidance for the various reconciling items."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.03 | $0.07 | -54.3% | $349.4M | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.07 | $0.06 | +4.3% | $353.5M | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.12 | $0.17 | -30.8% | $1.39B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.24 | $0.27 | -11.0% | $1.55B | 9 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±18.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 75.8% | ±18.8% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 61.2% | ±29.4% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 55.1% | ±34.4% |