# Genius Sports Limited (GENI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/GENI · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Genius Sports Limited (GENI), nexqual.com/GENI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 6.54 (+1.71% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 6.43 · day 6.32–6.75 · 52w 3.83–12.17 · market cap $1.75B · NYQ

## Key facts
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold GENI (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $5.6M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($5.6M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (21 analysts), mean target USD 10.83 (range 6–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -45.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -64.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.2, revenue estimate $261M.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold GENI. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samantha McLemore | Patient Capital Management | 0.16% | $4.9M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Russell Thomas | Chief Legal Officer | 50,000 | $326K | 9.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-15…2026-09-17 | Locke Mark | Chief Executive Officer | 800,000 | $5.3M | 4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 21 analysts; mean target USD 10.83 (low 6, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Macquarie | Target lowered | Outperform | $12 → $11 |
| 2026-09-25 | JP Morgan | Initiated | Overweight | $8 |
| 2026-08-07 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Buy | $11 → $12 |
| 2026-08-07 | Macquarie | Target raised | Outperform | $10 → $12 |
| 2026-08-07 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $10 → $12 |
| 2026-08-07 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $10 → $12 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wells Fargo | Downgrade | Overweight → Equal-Weight | $8 |
| 2026-08-06 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $9 → $10 |
| 2026-07-31 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $9 → $10 |
| 2026-07-22 | Stifel | Target raised | Hold | $5 → $7 |
| 2026-07-20 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $9 → $8 |
| 2026-07-20 | Freedom Capital Markets | Initiated | Buy | $9 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -45.5% | -64.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -45.6% | -18.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 74.5% | 66.2% |
| Max drawdown | -67.4% (Oct 2025→Apr 2026) | -86.8% (Oct 2021→Jul 2022) |

## Peers (Internet Content & Information)
OPRA (Opera Limited) USD 17.74 -1.44% · DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group ) USD 6.61 -0.75% · WB (Weibo Corporation) USD 6.32 -0.16% · WBTN (WEBTOON Entertainment Inc.) USD 9.5 -3.46% · STUB (StubHub Holdings, Inc.) USD 6.1 +3.21% · ATHM (Autohome Inc.) USD 20.4 +2.26%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/GENI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in GENI's own 20-F filed 2026-03-17 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1834489/000119312526110749/geni-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | US | "Our business and operating results and the business and operating results of our customers, suppliers and vendors may be significantly impacted by general economic, political and social conditions, pandemics, wars or ter…" |
| Supplier | Amazon (AMZN) | "We rely on information technology and other services, systems and platforms, including Amazon Web Services and certain other third-party platforms, and failures, errors, defects or disruptions therein could diminish our …" |
| Customer | NFL Enterprises | "The rising costs of sports rights, including without limitation in relation to our rights agreements with the NFL and the English and Scottish Football leagues (which were renewed in 2025 and 2024, respectively), means t…" |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.20 | $0.19 | +5.3% | $261.2M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.33 | $0.27 | +22.2% | $371.2M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.62 | $0.52 | +19.2% | $1.02B | 1 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.07 | $0.97 | +10.3% | $1.30B | 1 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±24.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 87.7% | ±24.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 78.3% | ±28.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 74.5% | ±32.5% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 74.2% | ±44.7% |