# The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/GEO · data as of 2026-10-15 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO), nexqual.com/GEO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 29.33 (-4.80% on the day) · last close of Oct 15, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 30.81 · day 29.15–30.58 · 52w 12.51–33.17 · market cap $3.86B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.83B, net income $292M (10.3% margin), free cash flow $26.4M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 13.2x (avg 46.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 11.8x, net debt $1.46B.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 39 (range 36–40).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +75.2% vs S&P 500 +18.1%; 5Y +252.9% vs S&P 500 +85.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.35, revenue estimate $773M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.26B | $2.38B | $2.41B | $2.42B | $2.63B | $2.83B |
| Operating income | $288M | $384M | $352M | $310M | $257M | $316M |
| Net income | $77.4M | $172M | $107M | $32.0M | $254M | $292M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.58 | $1.17 | $0.72 | $0.22 | $1.82 | — |
| Free cash flow | $213M | $198M | $205M | $164M | -$125M | $26.4M |
| Operating margin | 12.8% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% |
| Net margin | 3.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% |
| Revenue growth | -4.0% | +5.3% | +1.5% | +0.4% | +8.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $506M | $95.1M | $94.0M | $76.9M | $69.0M | — |
| Total debt | $2.64B | $1.98B | $1.78B | $1.71B | $1.65B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 13.2x · P/S 1.4x · EV/EBITDA 11.8x · EV/Sales 1.9x · P/FCF 146.0x · P/B 2.5x · FCF yield 0.68% · Earnings yield 7.55% · Buyback yield (TTM) 4.60% · Net debt $1.46B · EV $5.32B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.9x, Dec 2024 117.3x, Dec 2023 12.5x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 39 (low 36, high 40).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Jones Trading | Maintained | Buy | $40 |
| 2026-08-06 | Jones Trading | Target raised | Buy | $33 → $40 |
| 2026-06-26 | Northland Capital Markets | Target raised | Outperform | $30 → $40 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-16) | 5Y (from 2021-10-11) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +75.2% | +252.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +18.1% | +85.1% |
| Per year | +75.5% | +28.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 48.7% | 51.5% |
| Max drawdown | -28.6% (Jan 2026→Feb 2026) | -62.5% (Jan 2025→Feb 2026) |

## Peers (Security & Protection Services)
BRC (Brady Corporation) USD 84.03 -1.18% · BCO (Brinks Company (The)) USD 104.42 +0.28% · CXW (CoreCivic, Inc.) USD 31.23 -8.23% · ADT (ADT Inc.) USD 6.86 +3.78% · MSA (MSA Safety Incorporated) USD 181.79 +0.00% · NSSC (NAPCO Security Technologies, In) USD 35.96 -0.61%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/GEO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt