# Geron Corporation (GERN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/GERN · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Geron Corporation (GERN), nexqual.com/GERN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 1.12 (-0.88% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 1.13 · day 1.08–1.15 · 52w 1.04–2.01 · market cap $720M · NMS

## Key facts
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 4.25 (range 3–6).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -9.7% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y -27.3% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD -0.01, revenue estimate $60.4M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4M | $596K | $237K | — | — | — |
| Operating income | -$114M | -$139M | -$194M | -$174M | -$68.6M | -$51.8M |
| Net income | -$116M | -$142M | -$184M | -$175M | -$83.5M | -$67.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.35 | -$0.37 | -$0.32 | -$0.27 | -$0.13 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$95.8M | -$128M | -$169M | -$219M | — | — |
| Operating margin | -8183.7% | -23246.6% | -81832.9% | — | — | — |
| Net margin | -8335.4% | -23808.9% | -77690.7% | — | — | — |
| Revenue growth | +450.6% | -57.2% | -60.2% | — | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $184M | $173M | $334M | $407M | $358M | — |
| Total debt | $49.8M | $51.2M | $81.9M | $118M | $120M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/B 3.3x · Earnings yield -9.40% · Net cash $181M · EV $539M

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 4.25 (low 3, high 6).

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -9.7% | -27.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | -9.7% | -6.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 63.0% | 62.6% |
| Max drawdown | -43.6% (Feb 2026→Jun 2026) | -78.0% (Jun 2024→Nov 2025) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 303.53 -1.39% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 89.27 -1.79% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.09 -0.35% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 252.96 -2.30% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 42.93 -2.23% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 145.04 -7.07%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/GERN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in GERN's own 10-K filed 2026-03-02 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886744/000088674426000008/gern-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Janssen Biotech | "Collaboration Agreement, with Janssen Biotech, Inc., or Janssen, on September 28, 2018, we regained global rights to" |
| Partner | INCYTE CORP (INCY) | "collaboration with Incyte; nuvisertib (TP-3654), an oral PIM kinase inhibitor by Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd.; and a" |

Other companies that name GERN in their own reports (relationship from GERN's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (LCTX) | 10-K 2026-03-05 | "Our royalties, license and other revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 represent cash flows generated under patent families that Asterias acquired from Geron and the Services Agreeme…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross product revenue | $72.4M | 126.0% | +25.2% |
| Product revenue, net | $57.5M | 100.0% | +17.3% |
| Royalties | $7,000 | 0.0% | -75.9% |
| Total revenue | $57.5M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 226% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects RYTELO net product revenue to be in the range of $220 million to $240 million."
- "Geron also expects total operating expenses to be between $230 million and $240 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.01 | $-0.01 | +100.0% | $60.4M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $65.7M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.02 | $-0.02 | +0.0% | $235.4M | 1 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.04 | $0.07 | -38.5% | $341.0M | 1 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±23.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 99.8% | ±23.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 86.2% | ±28.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 150.2% | ±53.1% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 101.6% | ±48.7% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 119.0% | ±88.6% |