# Graco Inc. (GGG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/GGG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Graco Inc. (GGG), nexqual.com/GGG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 69.28 (-15.32% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 81.81 · day 67.74–74.5 · 52w 67.74–95.69 · market cap $11.2B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 25, 2026): revenue $2.31B, net income $517M (22.4% margin), free cash flow $600M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 21.7x (avg 28.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 15.3x, net cash $36.0M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold GGG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $257K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($257K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $100K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -13.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -2.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-21, EPS estimate USD 0.82, revenue estimate $631M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.99B | $2.14B | $2.20B | $2.11B | $2.24B | $2.31B |
| Gross profit | $1.03B | $1.06B | $1.16B | $1.12B | $1.17B | — |
| Operating income | $531M | $573M | $647M | $570M | $625M | $620M |
| Net income | $440M | $461M | $507M | $486M | $522M | $517M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.52 | $2.66 | $2.94 | $2.82 | $3.08 | — |
| Free cash flow | $323M | $176M | $466M | $515M | $638M | $600M |
| Gross margin | 52.0% | 49.3% | 52.9% | 53.1% | 52.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 26.7% | 26.7% | 29.5% | 27.0% | 27.9% | 26.8% |
| Net margin | 22.1% | 21.5% | 23.1% | 23.0% | 23.3% | 22.4% |
| Revenue growth | +20.5% | +7.8% | +2.4% | -3.7% | +5.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $624M | $339M | $538M | $675M | $624M | — |
| Total debt | $150M | $75.0M | $0K | — | $1.6M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 25, 2026)
P/E 21.7x · P/S 4.9x · EV/EBITDA 15.3x · EV/Sales 4.8x · P/FCF 18.7x · P/B 4.5x · FCF yield 5.35% · Earnings yield 4.61% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.70% · Buyback yield (TTM) 4.68% · Net cash $36.0M · EV $11.2B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 26.6x, Dec 2024 29.9x, Dec 2023 29.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold GGG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 2.63% | $287M | Reduced -0.5% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Etchart Eric | Director | 3,218 | $257K | 6.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $100K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Simon Andrea Helen | Director | 1,240 | $100K | 80.53 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $96 → $95 |
| 2026-07-27 | DA Davidson | Maintained | Neutral | $85 |
| 2026-07-24 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $92 → $96 |
| 2026-07-16 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $95 → $92 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wolfe Research | Downgrade | Outperform → Peer Perform |  |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -13.9% | -2.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -14.0% | -0.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 26.0% | 23.3% |
| Max drawdown | -26.1% (Mar 2026→Oct 2026) | -28.8% (Dec 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Specialty Industrial Machinery)
INIO (INNIO N.V.) USD 15.11 -10.43% · GNRC (Generac Holdlings Inc.) USD 188.02 -7.44% · CR (Crane Company) USD 189.05 -7.52% · WTS (Watts Water Technologies, Inc.) USD 356.94 -1.78% · IEX (IDEX Corporation) USD 226.88 -3.63% · NDSN (Nordson Corporation) USD 318.71 -3.87%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/GGG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-09-25)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contractor | $276.0M | 47.1% | +5.2% | $71.2M | 25.8% |
| Industrial | $264.6M | 45.1% | +10.9% | $74.5M | 28.1% |
| Expansion Markets | $45.7M | 7.8% | +8.0% | $10.9M | 23.9% |
| Total revenue | $586.4M | 100% | — | $148.1M | 25.3% |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-09-25)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $307.9M | 52.5% | +4.9% |
| Other countries | $278.5M | 47.5% | +11.5% |
| Total revenue | $586.4M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-26: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-17).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-01-26)

- "Outlook "As we reflect on the past year, we delivered solid performance despite significant macroeconomic challenges and softness across many of our core end markets," said Sheahan. "We added more than $100 million of acquired revenue and achieved full‑year organic growth in both our Industrial and Expansion Markets segments."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.82 | $0.87 | -5.0% | $631.5M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.77 | $0.76 | +2.2% | $584.2M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.23 | $3.30 | -2.2% | $2.35B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.47 | $3.49 | -0.4% | $2.52B | 9 |