# Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/GPK · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK), nexqual.com/GPK" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 9.04 (+7.75% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 8.39 · day 8.33–9.05 · 52w 8.15–18 · market cap $2.68B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $8.64B, net income $194M (2.2% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 13.8x (avg 11.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 7.6x, net debt $5.44B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold GPK (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $354K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.91 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 10.95 (range 9–17).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -46.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -51.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.22, revenue estimate $2.16B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.16B | $9.44B | $9.43B | $8.81B | $8.62B | $8.64B |
| Gross profit | $1.07B | $1.83B | $2.12B | $1.96B | $1.60B | — |
| Operating income | $407M | $906M | $1.17B | $1.12B | $804M | $504M |
| Net income | $204M | $522M | $723M | $658M | $444M | $194M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.68 | $1.69 | $2.34 | $2.16 | $1.48 | — |
| Gross margin | 15.0% | 19.4% | 22.5% | 22.3% | 18.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 5.7% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 5.8% |
| Net margin | 2.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Revenue growth | +9.1% | +31.9% | -0.1% | -6.6% | -2.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $172M | $150M | $162M | $157M | $261M | — |
| Total debt | $5.78B | $5.23B | $5.35B | $5.16B | $5.55B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 13.8x · P/S 0.3x · EV/EBITDA 7.6x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/B 0.8x · Earnings yield 7.25% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 4.86% · Net debt $5.44B · EV $8.12B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.2x, Dec 2024 12.6x, Dec 2023 10.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold GPK. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Einhorn | Greenlight Capital | 2.69% | $105M | Added +9.4% |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 purchases, $354K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Hagemann Robert | Director | 14,000 | $154K | 11 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-07 | Stafeil Jeffrey | Director | 17,878 | $200K | 11.19 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.91 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 10.95 (low 9, high 17).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Underweight | $10 → $9 |
| 2026-10-13 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $10 → $9 |
| 2026-10-12 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Hold | $11 → $9 |
| 2026-10-05 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $12 → $9.5 |
| 2026-10-02 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $13 → $9 |
| 2026-09-30 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $11 → $10 |
| 2026-09-23 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral → Overweight | $12.5 → $11.5 |
| 2026-09-11 | B of A Securities | Target lowered | Neutral | $14 → $13 |
| 2026-08-06 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $11 → $12 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Underweight | $9 → $10 |
| 2026-07-15 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Underweight | $8 → $9 |
| 2026-06-29 | JP Morgan | Initiated | Neutral | $11.7 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -46.8% | -51.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -46.9% | -13.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 47.2% | 30.0% |
| Max drawdown | -51.5% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) | -70.6% (Sep 2024→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Packaging & Containers)
AMBP (Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.) USD 4.73 +3.05% · SLGN (Silgan Holdings Inc.) USD 39.76 +2.05% · GEF (Greif Inc.) USD 83.13 +1.50% · SON (Sonoco Products Company) USD 50.27 -1.35% · REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) USD 23.61 +4.28% · TRS (TriMas Corporation) USD 39.9 +0.18%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/GPK · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in GPK's own 10-K filed 2026-03-02 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408075/000140807526000009/gpk-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | GENERAL MILLS INC (GIS) | "Consumer product customers include The Kraft Heinz Company, General Mills, Inc., Nestlé USA, Inc., Mars, Inc., Ferrero Group and Kimberly-Clark Corporation, among others." |
| Customer | McDonald's (MCD) | "Quick-service restaurant customers include Chick-fil-A, McDonald's, Wendy's, Panda Express, Dairy Queen, Chipotle, Panera and KFC." |
| Customer | Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | "Health/beauty customers include GlaxoSmithKline, Bayer, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, Novartis, L'Oréal S.A., Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive." |
| Customer | Procter & Gamble (PG) | "Health/beauty customers include GlaxoSmithKline, Bayer, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, Novartis, L'Oréal S.A., Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive." |
| Partner | Coca-Cola (KO) | "Prior to working in the Coca-Cola system, Mr. Lischer held various roles with Deloitte, most recently serving as a National Office Partner." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas Paperboard Packaging | $1.49B | 68.0% | -1.6% | $110.0M | 7.4% |
| International Paperboard Packaging | $579.0M | 26.5% | +3.4% | $7.0M | 1.2% |
| Total revenue | $2.19B | 100% | — | $117.0M | 5.3% |
The lines above cover 94.4% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "The Company now expects 2026 Net Sales at the high-end of the range of $8.4 billion to $8.6 billion, Adjusted EBITDA at the low-end of the range of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion, and Adjusted EPS in the range of $0.65 to $0.90."
- "The Company now expects 2026 Adjusted Cash Flow in the range of $600 million to $700 million, and 2026 capital spending below $450 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.22 | $0.35 | -37.7% | $2.16B | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.22 | $0.26 | -15.2% | $2.10B | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.67 | $0.82 | -18.4% | $8.63B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.97 | $1.16 | -16.0% | $8.80B | 9 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±16.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 62.1% | ±16.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 56.2% | ±20.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 46.2% | ±20.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 50.0% | ±27.9% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 46.5% | ±32.1% |