# Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/GPRE · data as of 2026-10-23 18:55 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE), nexqual.com/GPRE" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 14.06 (+1.08% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 18:55 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 13.91 · day 13.76–14.21 · 52w 9.29–19.65 · market cap $986M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.83B, net income $124M (6.8% margin), free cash flow $127M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 8.0x, EV/EBITDA 5.4x, net debt $271M.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$68.4M vs operating income $136M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈5.1x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 0% effective rate).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 18.5 (range 15–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +33.1% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -63.0% vs S&P 500 +77.0%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.62, revenue estimate $530M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.83B | $3.66B | $3.30B | $2.46B | $2.09B | $1.83B |
| Gross profit | $202M | $113M | $165M | $130M | $137M | — |
| Operating income | $25.5M | -$98.9M | -$61.6M | -$47.5M | -$67.2M | $136M |
| Net income | -$66.0M | -$127M | -$93.4M | -$82.5M | -$121M | $124M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.41 | -$2.29 | -$1.59 | -$1.29 | -$1.80 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$183M | -$143M | -$51.7M | -$125M | $73.7M | $127M |
| Gross margin | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 0.9% | -2.7% | -1.9% | -1.9% | -3.2% | 7.4% |
| Net margin | -2.3% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -3.4% | -5.8% | 6.8% |
| Revenue growth | +47.0% | +29.6% | -10.0% | -25.4% | -14.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $551M | $445M | — | — | $182M | — |
| Total debt | $559M | $504M | $499M | $438M | $374M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 8.0x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈5.1x · P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 5.4x · EV/Sales 0.7x · P/FCF 7.7x · P/B 1.1x · FCF yield 12.93% · Earnings yield 12.58% · Net debt $271M · EV $1.26B

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 18.5 (low 15, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $12 → $20 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +33.1% | -63.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +77.0% |
| Per year | +33.2% | -18.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 56.9% | 55.8% |
| Max drawdown | -27.7% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -91.9% (Nov 2021→Apr 2025) |

## Peers (Chemicals)
WLKP (Westlake Chemical Partners LP) USD 21.15 +0.88% · REX (REX American Resources Corporat) USD 39.68 -0.35% · LXU (LSB Industries, Inc.) USD 9.94 +1.79% · BAK (Braskem SA) USD 1.68 +5.00% · HUN (Huntsman Corporation) USD 8.85 +1.49% · TROX (Tronox Holdings plc) USD 3.48 -0.14%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/GPRE · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in GPRE's own 10-K filed 2026-02-10 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1309402/000130940226000019/gpre-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Eco-Energy | "Our ethanol is marketed by Eco-Energy LLC to local, regional, national and international customers." |
| Partner | Equilon Enterprises | "In July 2023, we announced a technology collaboration with Equilon Enterprises LLC, which allows us to use FQT's precision separation and processing technology with Shell Fiber Conversion Technology." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethanol Production | $45.5M | 10.2% | -27.8% | $71.0M | 156.1% |
| Agribusiness & Energy Services | $465,000 | 0.1% | -86.7% | $6.7M | 1440.6% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$9.8M | — |
| Total revenue | $446.2M | 100% | — | $67.9M | 15.2% |
The lines above cover 10.3% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | $29.7M | 6.6% | -24.1% |
| Distillers grains | $15.8M | 3.5% | -33.4% |
| Total revenue | $446.2M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 10.2% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 74% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The forward-looking statements in this press release speak only as of the date they are made and the company assumes no obligation and does not intend to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by securities and other applicable laws."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.62 | $0.51 | +20.3% | $530.4M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.39 | $0.23 | +67.1% | $508.8M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.20 | $1.76 | +25.0% | $1.89B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.69 | $1.43 | +18.3% | $1.99B | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±14.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 63.8% | ±14.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 61.0% | ±19.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 56.4% | ±22.6% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 59.9% | ±30.4% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 57.6% | ±37.0% |