# Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/GRBK · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK), nexqual.com/GRBK" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 64.94 (+7.02% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 60.68 · day 60.78–65.08 · 52w 59.12–83.18 · market cap $2.79B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.98B, net income $291M (14.7% margin), free cash flow $112M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 9.6x (avg 7.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold GRBK (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $353K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($353K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 62 (range 62–62).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -5.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +155.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 1.43, revenue estimate $476M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.40B | $1.76B | $1.75B | $2.06B | $2.04B | $1.98B |
| Gross profit | $362M | $523M | $548M | $704M | $641M | — |
| Net income | $190M | $292M | $285M | $382M | $313M | $291M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.72 | $6.02 | $6.14 | $8.45 | $7.07 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$94.4M | $88.7M | $206M | $21.5M | $208M | $112M |
| Gross margin | 25.8% | 29.8% | 31.3% | 34.1% | 31.4% | — |
| Net margin | 13.6% | 16.6% | 16.3% | 18.5% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
| Revenue growth | +43.7% | +25.3% | -0.5% | +17.8% | -1.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $77.2M | $76.6M | $180M | $142M | $155M | — |
| Total debt | $340M | $372M | $350M | $340M | $323M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 9.6x · P/S 1.4x · P/FCF 25.0x · P/B 1.4x · FCF yield 4.00% · Earnings yield 10.43% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.10% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.42%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.8x, Dec 2024 6.6x, Dec 2023 8.4x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold GRBK. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Einhorn | Greenlight Capital | 19.39% | $758M | Unchanged |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $1.2M | Added +15.6% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Press Richard S | Director | 5,000 | $353K | 6% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 62 (low 62, high 62).

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -5.1% | +155.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -5.1% | +20.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 33.4% | 43.5% |
| Max drawdown | -25.4% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -44.6% (Dec 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Residential Construction)
KBH (KB Home) USD 46.19 +7.39% · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) USD 123.3 +8.12% · MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation) USD 63.63 +7.27% · CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) USD 547.44 +6.04% · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) USD 79.72 +5.27% · IBP (Installed Building Products, In) USD 198.13 +5.46%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/GRBK · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in GRBK's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1373670/000162828026011798/grbk-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | GBTM Sendera | "Following our analysis of GBTM Sendera's operating agreement, the Company determined that GBTM Sendera is not a VIE as the joint venture's equity at risk is sufficient to permit the entity to finance its activities witho…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homebuilders | $472.0M | 95.6% | -11.4% |
| Financial Services | $12.2M | 2.5% | +93.9% |
| Land Subdivider and Developers | $9.6M | 1.9% | +371.1% |
| Total revenue | $493.8M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Building | $481.6M | 97.5% | -9.9% |
| — Residential Real Estate (part of Home Building) | $472.0M | 95.6% | -11.4% |
| — Real Estate, Other (part of Home Building) | $9.6M | 1.9% | +371.1% |
| Land and Lots | $9.6M | 1.9% | — |
| Total revenue | $493.8M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Central Region | $381.1M | 77.2% | -6.6% |
| US Southeast Region | $90.9M | 18.4% | -27.0% |
| Total revenue | $493.8M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 95.6% of total revenue.

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.43 | $1.43 | +0.0% | $475.5M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.61 | $1.53 | +5.2% | $518.0M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.14 | $5.75 | +6.9% | $1.94B | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $6.00 | $6.24 | -3.8% | $1.97B | 2 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±7.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±3.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 31.1% | ±7.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 35.8% | ±11.2% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 33.3% | ±15.1% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 33.7% | ±20.2% |