# Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/GSHD · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD), nexqual.com/GSHD" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 50.62 (+11.69% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 45.32 · day 45.86–50.72 · 52w 33.68–79.85 · market cap $1.81B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $402M, net income $35.3M (8.8% margin), free cash flow $79.7M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 51.3x (avg 147.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 19.8x, net debt $294M.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold GSHD (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 13 Form 4 filings, $29.2M; 13 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($29.2M); 10 by opportunistic insiders (10 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 9 Form 4 filings, $19.3M; 1 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.62 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 62.08 (range 42–80).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -31.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -67.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09, EPS estimate USD 0.51, revenue estimate $105M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $151M | $209M | $261M | $315M | $365M | $402M |
| Operating income | $8.7M | $10.1M | $33.0M | $61.1M | $74.4M | $93.8M |
| Net income | $5.4M | $565K | $14.1M | $30.4M | $27.8M | $35.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.26 | $0.03 | $0.55 | $1.16 | $1.04 | — |
| Free cash flow | $22.7M | $25.9M | $46.4M | $70.6M | $86.1M | $79.7M |
| Operating margin | 5.7% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 19.4% | 20.4% | 23.3% |
| Net margin | 3.6% | 0.3% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% |
| Revenue growth | +29.3% | +38.4% | +24.8% | +20.4% | +16.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $28.5M | $28.7M | $42.0M | $54.3M | $34.4M | — |
| Total debt | $123M | $93.6M | $76.9M | $92.3M | $292M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 51.3x · P/S 4.5x · EV/EBITDA 19.8x · EV/Sales 5.2x · P/FCF 22.7x · FCF yield 4.40% · Earnings yield 1.95% · Buyback yield (TTM) 7.46% · Net debt $294M · EV $2.10B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 100.8x, Dec 2024 135.0x, Dec 2023 205.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold GSHD. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 0.87% | $89.1M | Added +17.5% |
| Chuck Akre | Akre Capital Management | 0.42% | $21.5M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 13 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Kebodeaux Adrienne |  | 7,000 | $490K | 10.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-19…2026-08-20 | Jones Serena |  | 29,750 | $2.1M | 15.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-13 | Jones Serena |  | 250 | $17K | 0.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-03…2026-08-04 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 |  | 122,481 | $8.0M | 6.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-29…2026-07-30 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 |  | 127,519 | $8.9M | 6.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-28 | Chick & The Bear Irrevocable Trust |  | 5,000 | $325K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-28 | Kebodeaux Adrienne |  | 5,000 | $326K | 7.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-27 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 |  | 9,588 | $391K | 0.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-26 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 |  | 45,588 | $1.8M | 2.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-22 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 |  | 82,689 | $3.5M | 4.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-21 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 |  | 70,751 | $2.9M | 3.9% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-01 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 |  | 5,090 | $231K | 0.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-28…2026-04-29 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 |  | 5,486 | $264K | 0.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
9 purchases, $19.3M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Durable Capital Partners Lp |  | 150,000 | $7.1M | 47.32 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-31 | Durable Capital Partners Lp |  | 36,256 | $2.2M | 61.92 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-31 | Lane Peter R. | Director | 1,600 | $101K | 63.14 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-24…2026-07-27 | Durable Capital Partners Lp |  | 153,723 | $9.1M | 59.22 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-29 | Langston Patrick Ryan |  | 2,800 | $100K | 35.56 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-05-28 | Martin John Arthur | Chief Financial Officer | 5,000 | $174K | 34.73 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Thornthwaite Martin Ellis | General Counsel | 5,000 | $208K | 41.5 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Jones Mark E. Jr. | President & COO | 2,650 | $99K | 37.5 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-14 | Miller Mark | President and CEO | 5,000 | $184K | 36.89 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.62 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 62.08 (low 42, high 80).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Hold | $58 → $48 |
| 2026-10-12 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $72 → $66 |
| 2026-10-12 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $100 → $80 |
| 2026-10-06 | Piper Sandler | Downgrade | Overweight → Neutral | $72 → $48 |
| 2026-10-01 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $68 → $60 |
| 2026-07-27 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $70 → $72 |
| 2026-07-23 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $55 → $58 |
| 2026-07-23 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $80 → $72 |
| 2026-07-15 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $52 → $72 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $55 → $60 |
| 2026-07-13 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $52 → $55 |
| 2026-07-09 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Overweight | $67 → $76 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -31.8% | -67.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -31.9% | -19.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Max drawdown | -56.1% (Dec 2025→Jun 2026) | -82.0% (Oct 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Insurance Brokers)
LIFE (Ethos Technologies Inc.) USD 43.53 -1.56% · NP (Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.) USD 28.72 +1.16% · CRVL (CorVel Corp.) USD 83.88 +3.93% · ARX (Accelerant Holdings) USD 19.76 +0.05% · BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group, In) USD 31.89 -0.09% · CRD-A (Crawford & Company) USD 12.8 +1.51%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/GSHD · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in GSHD's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726978/000172697826000010/gshd-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Salesforce (CRM) | "In some cases, we depend on key vendors and partners to provide technology and other support for our strategic initiatives, such as the Salesforce.com platform." |
| Partner | Pre-IPO | "We entered into the tax receivable agreement with the Pre-IPO LLC Members on May 1, 2018 that provides for the payment by us to the Pre-IPO LLC Members of 85% of the amount of cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state…" |
| Partner | Pre-IPO LLC Members of | "We entered into the tax receivable agreement with the Pre-IPO LLC Members on May 1, 2018 that provides for the payment by us to the Pre-IPO LLC Members of 85% of the amount of cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state…" |
| Partner | Insurance | "We entered into the tax receivable agreement with the Pre-IPO LLC Members on May 1, 2018 that provides for the payment by us to the Pre-IPO LLC Members of 85% of the amount of cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franchise revenues | $63.8M | 56.3% | +14.5% |
| — Commissions and agency fees (part of Franchise revenues) | $49.5M | 43.6% | +29.9% |
| — New Business Royalty Fees (part of Franchise revenues) | $9.4M | 8.3% | +20.2% |
| — Agency Fees (part of Franchise revenues) | $3.1M | 2.7% | +6.1% |
| — Initial Franchise Fees (part of Franchise revenues) | $1.4M | 1.2% | +9.1% |
| — Other Franchise Revenues (part of Franchise revenues) | $576,000 | 0.5% | -56.5% |
| Renewal Royalty Fees | $52.5M | 46.3% | +15.7% |
| Renewal Commissions | $21.0M | 18.6% | -9.0% |
| Contingent Commissions | $15.7M | 13.9% | +250.1% |
| New Business Commissions | $9.6M | 8.5% | +27.2% |
| Interest Income | $95,000 | 0.1% | -46.9% |
| Total revenue | $113.4M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 143.6% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 19%, 13% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-19).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-22)

- "We have increased our guidance for the full year 2026 as follows: • Total revenues are now expected to grow organically between 12% and 19%. • Total written premiums are expected to grow between 12% and 20%."
- "Forward-Looking Statements This press release may contain various "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which represent Goosehead's expectations or beliefs concerning future events."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.51 | $0.55 | -7.7% | $104.8M | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.60 | $0.64 | -6.8% | $113.8M | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.10 | $2.18 | -3.6% | $424.9M | 13 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.62 | $2.73 | -4.1% | $490.3M | 13 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-09): ±18.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 82.5% | ±18.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 71.9% | ±22.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 66.0% | ±33.1% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 66.1% | ±41.8% |