# Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/HCC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC), nexqual.com/HCC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 83 (-1.44% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 84.21 · day 82.55–84.87 · 52w 62.24–111.42 · market cap $4.38B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.68B, net income $219M (13.0% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 20.0x (avg 33.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 9.6x, net cash $148M.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold HCC (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 2 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $13.8M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($836K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.43 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 109.17 (range 100–123).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +32.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +261.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 1.39, revenue estimate $504M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B | $1.74B | $1.68B | $1.53B | $1.31B | $1.68B |
| Gross profit | $505M | $1.03B | $766M | $518M | $328M | — |
| Operating income | $244M | $801M | $541M | $255M | $45.7M | $229M |
| Net income | $151M | $641M | $479M | $251M | $57.0M | $219M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.93 | $12.40 | $9.20 | $4.79 | $1.08 | — |
| Free cash flow | $294M | $637M | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin | 47.7% | 59.1% | 45.7% | 34.0% | 25.0% | — |
| Operating margin | 23.0% | 46.1% | 32.3% | 16.7% | 3.5% | 13.6% |
| Net margin | 14.2% | 36.9% | 28.5% | 16.4% | 4.4% | 13.0% |
| Revenue growth | +35.3% | +64.2% | -3.6% | -9.0% | -14.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $396M | $829M | $738M | $492M | $300M | — |
| Total debt | $340M | $303M | $153M | $154M | $154M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 20.0x · P/S 2.6x · EV/EBITDA 9.6x · EV/Sales 2.5x · P/B 1.9x · Earnings yield 5.00% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.40% · Net cash $148M · EV $4.23B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 81.4x, Dec 2024 11.3x, Dec 2023 6.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold HCC. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohnish Pabrai | Pabrai Investments | 43.32% | $142M | Reduced -3.7% |
| Third Avenue Management |  | 3.70% | $23.2M | Reduced -21.6% |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.53% | $315M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Scheller Walter J | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | 50,000 | $5.5M | 15.7% | Yes (adopted March 2, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-19 | Chopin Brian M | CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER | 3,232 | $336K | 13.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-08-19 | Scheller Walter J | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | 50,000 | $5.3M | 13.6% | Yes (adopted March 2, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-19 | Williams Stephen D. | Director | 4,800 | $500K | 13.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-02 | Gant Kelli K. | See remarks | 20,000 | $2.2M | 22.8% | Yes (adopted February 26, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.43 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 109.17 (low 100, high 123).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $98 → $102 |
| 2026-09-16 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $90 → $110 |
| 2026-08-06 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $100 → $98 |
| 2026-06-30 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $102 → $100 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +32.9% | +261.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +33.0% | +29.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 50.9% | 47.5% |
| Max drawdown | -29.5% (Jun 2026→Jul 2026) | -45.5% (Nov 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Coking Coal)
AMR (Alpha Metallurgical Resources, ) USD 159.39 -0.30% · SXC (SunCoke Energy, Inc.) USD 9.71 -1.82% · METC (Ramaco Resources, Inc.) USD 7.23 -0.69% · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) USD 35.14 -4.51% · NTR (Nutrien Ltd.) USD 69.09 +1.42% · STLD (Steel Dynamics, Inc.) USD 239.9 -3.25%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/HCC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name HCC in their own reports (relationship from HCC's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP (ARLP) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "For 2025, the peer group consisted of the following companies: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., Black Stone Minerals, L.P., CORE Natural Resources, Inc., Dorchester Minerals, L.P., Kimbell Royalty…" |
| partner | Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) | 10-K 2026-02-17 | "The peer group, for the purposes of the information presented below, is comprised of Alliance Resource Partners LP, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., Hallador Energy Company, Peabody Energy Corpora…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining | $503.6M | 98.8% | +74.6% | $163.5M | 32.5% |
| All Other Segments | $6.1M | 1.2% | -32.5% | — | — |
| Total revenue | $509.7M | 100% | — | $94.5M | 18.5% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $503.6M | 98.8% | +74.6% |
| Product & Service Other | $6.1M | 1.2% | -32.5% |
| Total revenue | $509.7M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 11.9% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-12).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "The Company raised its volume guidance by 0.5 million short tons for the full year 2026 after continued positive reception of Blue Creek volume trials and adoption by customers."
- "The Company does not provide reconciliations of its outlook for cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) to cost of sales in reliance on the unreasonable efforts exception provided for under Item 10(e)(1)(i)(B) of Regulation S-K."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.39 | $1.60 | -13.5% | $504.5M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.07 | $1.65 | +24.9% | $524.7M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.64 | $6.11 | +8.6% | $2.00B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $7.01 | $7.21 | -2.8% | $2.21B | 4 |