# Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/HLMN · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN), nexqual.com/HLMN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 7.36 (+1.38% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 7.26 · day 7.13–7.4 · 52w 6.66–10.85 · market cap $1.43B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $1.60B, net income $41.2M (2.6% margin), free cash flow $61.1M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 34.8x (avg 77.6x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 9.2x, net debt $642M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $249K; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($249K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $249K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 11.75 (range 9–14).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -22.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -36.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-02, EPS estimate USD 0.2, revenue estimate $460M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.43B | $1.49B | $1.48B | $1.47B | $1.55B | $1.60B |
| Operating income | $10.3M | $39.9M | $60.9M | $88.8M | $114M | $111M |
| Net income | -$38.3M | -$16.4M | -$9.6M | $17.3M | $40.3M | $41.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.28 | -$0.08 | -$0.05 | $0.09 | $0.20 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$162M | $49.4M | $172M | $98.1M | $35.1M | $61.1M |
| Operating margin | 0.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Net margin | -2.7% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Revenue growth | — | +4.2% | -0.7% | -0.3% | +5.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $14.6M | $31.1M | $38.6M | $44.5M | $27.3M | — |
| Total debt | $907M | $885M | $732M | $692M | $668M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026)
P/E 34.8x · P/S 0.9x · EV/EBITDA 9.2x · EV/Sales 1.3x · P/FCF 23.4x · P/B 1.2x · FCF yield 4.27% · Earnings yield 2.88% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.50% · Net debt $642M · EV $2.07B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 42.9x, Dec 2024 112.3x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kitzberger Amanda | Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary | 13,750 | $100K | 18.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-19 | Parker Aaron Jerrod | Chief People Offic. | 17,381 | $149K | 24.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $249K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Kraft Robert O. | CFO and Treasurer | 35,500 | $249K | 7 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 11.75 (low 9, high 14).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Canaccord Genuity | Target lowered | Buy | $14 → $13 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $10 → $11 |
| 2026-07-01 | Canaccord Genuity | Target lowered | Buy | $14 → $13 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -22.1% | -36.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -22.2% | -8.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 38.7% | 37.6% |
| Max drawdown | -35.4% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -44.4% (Mar 2022→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (Tools & Accessories)
KMT (Kennametal Inc.) USD 29.59 -4.89% · TKR (Timken Company (The)) USD 108.4 -5.71% · TTC (Toro Company (The)) USD 105.32 +1.91% · LECO (Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.) USD 256.98 -2.34% · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.) USD 98.97 +3.70% · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) USD 478.03 -5.24%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/HLMN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in HLMN's own 10-K filed 2026-02-17 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1822492/000182249226000019/hlmn-20251227.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Home Depot (HD) | "For the year ended December 27, 2025, Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues and Lowe's was the second largest customer at approximately $324.…" |
| Customer | Lowe's (LOW) | "For the year ended December 27, 2025, Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues and Lowe's was the second largest customer at approximately $324.…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardware and Protective Solutions | $336.1M | 76.0% | +9.9% |
| Robotics and Digital Solutions | $61.6M | 13.9% | +11.0% |
| Canada | $44.6M | 10.1% | +7.8% |
| Total revenue | $442.3M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastening and Hardware | $282.6M | 63.9% | +15.6% |
| Personal Protection Solutions | $53.5M | 12.1% | -12.9% |
| Total revenue | $442.3M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 76% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $393.6M | 89.0% | +9.9% |
| Canada | $44.6M | 10.1% | +7.8% |
| Mexico | $4.0M | 0.9% | +23.6% |
| Total revenue | $442.3M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-27: 22.5%, 20.9% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-17).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "EBITDA outlook CINCINNATI, August 3, 2026 -- Hillman Solutions Corp."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.20 | $0.20 | +1.7% | $460.1M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.14 | $0.14 | -4.3% | $411.1M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.58 | $0.58 | +0.2% | $1.68B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.68 | $0.70 | -2.8% | $1.80B | 7 |