# Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/HOG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG), nexqual.com/HOG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 29.11 (+6.47% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 27.34 · day 27.26–29.27 · 52w 17.09–29.27 · market cap $3.03B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $4.24B, net income $203M (4.8% margin), free cash flow -$133M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.0x (avg 7.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 7.1x, net cash $266M.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold HOG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 7 Form 4 filings, $273K; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $1.4M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.73 on a 1–5 scale) (15 analysts), mean target USD 27.9 (range 17–33).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +8.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -11.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.47, revenue estimate $1.07B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.34B | $5.76B | $5.84B | $5.19B | $4.47B | $4.24B |
| Gross profit | $2.09B | $2.35B | $2.51B | $2.18B | $1.73B | — |
| Operating income | $823M | $909M | $779M | $417M | $387M | $213M |
| Net income | $650M | $741M | $707M | $455M | $339M | $203M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.19 | $4.96 | $4.87 | $3.44 | $2.78 | — |
| Free cash flow | $856M | $397M | $547M | $867M | $415M | -$133M |
| Gross margin | 39.2% | 40.9% | 43.1% | 42.0% | 38.7% | — |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.0% |
| Net margin | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.8% |
| Revenue growth | +31.6% | +7.8% | +1.4% | -11.1% | -13.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.87B | $1.43B | $1.53B | $1.59B | $3.09B | — |
| Total debt | $6.14B | $6.14B | $6.25B | $6.32B | $2.47B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 15.0x · P/S 0.7x · EV/EBITDA 7.1x · EV/Sales 0.7x · P/B 1.0x · FCF yield -4.39% · Earnings yield 6.69% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.73% · Buyback yield (TTM) 11.90% · Net cash $266M · EV $2.76B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 7.3x, Dec 2024 8.8x, Dec 2023 7.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold HOG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Avenue Management |  | 5.79% | $36.2M | Added +1.2% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | <0.01% | $342K | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
7 of 7 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,559 | $38K | 3.7% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-09-01 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $43K | 3.6% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $39K | 3.5% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-01 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $38K | 3.4% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $37K | 3.3% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-19 | Root Jonathan R | CFO and CCO | 1,554 | $38K | 3.2% | Yes (adopted February 17, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Krause Paul J | Chief Legal Officer | 1,564 | $41K | 4.9% | Yes (adopted November 14, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 purchases, $1.4M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Littleton Gayle | CLO, CCO, CAO & Corp Sec | 7,500 | $198K | 26.38 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-10 | Starrs Artie | President & CEO | 10,000 | $259K | 25.89 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-31 | Nova Daniel J | Director | 40,000 | $983K | 24.57 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.73 on a 1–5 scale), 15 analysts; mean target USD 27.9 (low 17, high 33).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $31 → $33 |
| 2026-09-08 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $27 → $31 |
| 2026-09-02 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $26 → $28 |
| 2026-08-17 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Buy | $30 → $33 |
| 2026-07-28 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Underweight | $15 → $17 |
| 2026-07-24 | Baird | Target raised | Neutral | $28 → $30 |
| 2026-07-20 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Hold → Buy |  |
| 2026-07-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $26 → $27 |
| 2026-07-06 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Buy | $25 → $30 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +8.9% | -11.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +8.9% | -2.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 38.8% | 36.7% |
| Max drawdown | -37.9% (Oct 2025→Mar 2026) | -63.0% (Jan 2023→Mar 2026) |

## Peers (Recreational Vehicles)
PII (Polaris Inc.) USD 56.69 +4.42% · THO (Thor Industries, Inc.) USD 70.71 +6.44% · PATK (Patrick Industries, Inc.) USD 70.27 +4.41% · DOO (BRP Inc.) USD 58.54 +4.78% · LCII (LCI Industries) USD 86.6 +4.15% · BC (Brunswick Corporation) USD 68.29 +4.29%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/HOG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name HOG in their own reports (relationship from HOG's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) | 10-K 2026-02-20 | "Through our partnership with Harley-Davidson, we maintain an IT incident response plan that is designed to protect against, identify, evaluate, respond to, and recover from an incident." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Financial Services Entities | $1.10B | 99.2% | +5.8% | $72.3M | 6.6% |
| LiveWire | $9.1M | 0.8% | +51.6% | -$17.9M | -196.7% |
| Total revenue | $1.11B | 100% | — | $76.0M | 6.8% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motorcycles | $848.1M | 76.2% | +9.0% |
| Parts Accessories | $176.9M | 15.9% | -5.3% |
| Apparel | $56.1M | 5.0% | +1.5% |
| Product & Service Other | $16.9M | 1.5% | -3.6% |
| Licensing | $6.3M | 0.6% | +6.0% |
| Total revenue | $1.11B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-23)

- "("Harley-Davidson," "HDI," or the "Company") (NYSE: HOG) today reported second quarter 2026 results and raised full-year guidance . "Our second-quarter performance reflects strength in our domestic retail business, continued focus on healthy dealer inventory levels and the exceptional commitment of our dealer network."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.47 | $0.50 | -5.3% | $1.07B | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.79 | $-0.95 | -16.9% | $541.7M | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.67 | $0.39 | +69.9% | $3.79B | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.97 | $1.89 | +4.2% | $3.93B | 14 |