# HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/HPK · data as of 2026-11-03 21:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK), nexqual.com/HPK" · informational, not investment advice.

## What changed for HPK since Aug 31, 2025
The built-in knowledge of several widely used AI models ends around Aug 31, 2025. Everything below is newer, dated and sourced (as of Nov 3, 2026).

- HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) stock went from USD 7.7 (close of the week of Aug 25, 2025, split-adjusted) to USD 8.63, a +12.1% price change (+13.3% including dividends); the S&P 500 (SPY) moved +18.5% over the same period.
- HPK revenue over the last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026) was $894M, -20.0% vs $1.12B in fiscal year 2024 (ended Dec 31, 2024), the last full year filed before September 2025; net income $95.1M → -$88.7M (SEC 10-K / 10-Q).

**Price:** USD 8.63 (-0.46% on the day) · last close of Nov 3, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 8.67 · day 8.4–9.01 · 52w 3.85–12.03 · market cap $1.09B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $894M, net income -$88.7M (-9.9% margin) (SEC filings).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (1 analysts), mean target USD 10 (range 10–10).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +40.0% vs S&P 500 +12.9%; 5Y -36.8% vs S&P 500 +72.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09, EPS estimate USD 0.07, revenue estimate $252M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-09
- Dividend: USD 0.04 paid over the last 12 months, paid annual; latest ex-dividend date 2025-12-01; annual dividends grew 17.0% a year 2022–2025.
- Short interest: 48.21% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 11.3 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $220M | $756M | $1.13B | $1.12B | $863M | $894M |
| Operating income | $102M | $423M | $426M | $337M | $150M | $132M |
| Net income | $55.6M | $237M | $216M | $95.1M | $19.0M | -$88.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.54 | $1.93 | $1.58 | $0.67 | $0.14 | — |
| Operating margin | 46.2% | 55.9% | 37.7% | 30.2% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
| Net margin | 25.2% | 31.3% | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.2% | -9.9% |
| Revenue growth | — | +243.3% | +49.7% | -1.2% | -22.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $34.9M | $30.5M | $195M | $86.6M | $162M | — |
| Total debt | $97.9M | $704M | $1.15B | $1.05B | $1.19B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 1.2x · EV/EBITDA 3.7x · EV/Sales 2.4x · P/B 0.7x · Earnings yield -8.13% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.01% · Net debt $1.04B · EV $2.13B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 31.3x, Dec 2024 20.0x, Dec 2023 8.1x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 1 analysts; mean target USD 10 (low 10, high 10).

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-11-04) | 5Y (from 2021-11-01) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +40.0% | -36.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +12.9% | +72.1% |
| Per year | +40.2% | -8.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 82.2% | 63.8% |
| Max drawdown | -43.5% (Dec 2025→Jan 2026) | -89.2% (Apr 2022→Jan 2026) |

## Dividends
Dividend. Paid over the last 12 months: USD 0.04 in 1 payment (annual).
Most recent ex-dividend date: Dec 1, 2025; payment date: Dec 23, 2025. To receive a dividend, shares must be owned before the ex-dividend date.
Latest change: raised 60.0% to USD 0.04 per payment from USD 0.025, starting with the Feb 29, 2024 ex-dividend date.
Payout ratio 123% of earnings (above 100%: dividends exceeded net income; for REITs and partnerships, cash-flow measures are more relevant) · 5-year average yield 0.68% · annual dividends grew 17.0% a year from 2022 to 2025.
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | USD 0.04 |
| 2025-09-02 | USD 0.04 |
| 2025-06-02 | USD 0.04 |
| 2025-03-03 | USD 0.04 |
| 2024-12-02 | USD 0.04 |
| 2024-09-03 | USD 0.04 |
| 2024-06-03 | USD 0.04 |
| 2024-02-29 | USD 0.04 |
Total by calendar year: 2022 USD 0.10 · 2023 USD 0.10 · 2024 USD 0.16 · 2025 USD 0.16.

## Short interest
7,429,372 shares sold short, 48.21% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 7,889,877 shares (-5.8%). Days to cover: 11.3 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Oil & Gas E&P)
MGY (Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation) USD 24.66 -1.56% · CRGY (Crescent Energy Company) USD 13.01 -3.41% · BSM (Black Stone Minerals, L.P.) USD 14.89 +1.02% · BTE (Baytex Energy Corp) USD 4.78 -0.21% · CRK (Comstock Resources, Inc.) USD 13.84 -1.56% · CRC (California Resources Corporatio) USD 51.38 -2.21%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/HPK · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in HPK's own 10-K filed 2026-03-11 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926007770/hpe20251231_10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Jayco Holdings | "Chernosky has served on our Board since August 2020 and is currently a Principal of Travis Energy Partners LP since 2019, Jayco Holdings I, LP since 2005, Jayco Holdings II, LP since 2010, Jayco Holdings LLC since 2005, …" |
| Partner | Properties LP and Bertrand Properties | "Chernosky has served on our Board since August 2020 and is currently a Principal of Travis Energy Partners LP since 2019, Jayco Holdings I, LP since 2005, Jayco Holdings II, LP since 2010, Jayco Holdings LLC since 2005, …" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil Sales | $260.4M | 95.6% | +32.3% |
| Natural Gas & NGL Sales | $12.1M | 4.4% | -38.9% |
| Total revenue | $272.4M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

In the six months ended Jun 30, 2026, DK Trading and Supply LLC accounted for 88% of HPK's revenue. (10-Q, filed 2026-08-10)

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-10)

- "We have delivered production 7% above the midpoint of our guidance while keeping our development program on budget."
- "Meanwhile, our continued focus on operational efficiency, cost control and base production optimization drove first-half operating expenses that were 13% below the midpoint of our guidance."
- "Projected results of the Company for 2026 are particularly speculative and subject to change."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.07 | $-0.01 | +$0.08 | $251.8M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.13 | $-0.04 | +$0.17 | $228.8M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.09 | $-0.07 | +$0.16 | $969.0M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.13 | $-0.22 | +$0.35 | $815.1M | 2 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-09): ±24.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±11.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 16 | 136.4% | ±24.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 44 | 85.1% | ±25.3% |
| 2027-02-19 | 107 | 85.0% | ±35.5% |
| 2027-05-21 | 198 | 74.1% | ±40.8% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.32 | $0.03 | Beat +$0.29 | +14.7% |
| May 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.02 | −$0.02 | In line | -17.7% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.20 | −$0.07 | Miss −185.7% | +3.5% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.03 | $0.02 | Beat +$0.01 | -15.4% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -16.6% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% |
| May 12, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +12.7% |
| Mar 10, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -8.5% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; Unregistered sale of shares; Regulation FD disclosure; Other material event — “On October 6, 2026 (the "Signing Date"), HighPeak Energy, Inc. (the "Company") entered into (x) a Securities Purchase Agreement, with PT Danantara Energy International ("DEI"), a subsidiary of PT Danantara Investment Management pursuant to which DEI has agreed to purchase from the Company 250,000 shares of a newly created series of convertible preferred stock, designated as Series A 6.0% Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock (the "Series A Preferred Stock") and (y) a Securities Purchase Agreement with PT Tunas…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926032094/0001437749-26-032094-index.htm |
| 2026-08-10 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926026781/0001437749-26-026781-index.htm |
| 2026-08-10 | 8-K | Quarterly results; Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926026770/0001437749-26-026770-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.