# Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/HRL · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), nexqual.com/HRL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 21.06 (-1.40% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 21.36 · day 20.89–21.36 · 52w 18.96–26.6 · market cap $11.6B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 26, 2026): revenue $12.1B, net income $343M (2.8% margin), free cash flow $781M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 33.8x (avg 22.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 16.1x, net debt $1.99B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $363M vs operating income $574M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈110.6x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 34.4% effective rate).
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold HRL (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 2 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $495K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($495K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $201K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 25.31 (range 23–29).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -6.7% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y -40.4% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-08-27, EPS estimate USD 0.37, revenue estimate $3.18B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.4B | $12.5B | $12.1B | $11.9B | $12.1B | $12.1B |
| Gross profit | $1.93B | $2.16B | $2.00B | $2.02B | $1.89B | — |
| Operating income | $1.12B | $1.31B | $1.07B | $1.07B | $719M | $574M |
| Net income | $909M | $1000M | $794M | $805M | $478M | $343M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.66 | $1.82 | $1.45 | $1.47 | $0.87 | — |
| Free cash flow | $770M | $856M | $778M | $1.01B | $534M | $781M |
| Gross margin | 16.9% | 17.4% | 16.5% | 17.0% | 15.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Net margin | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Revenue growth | +18.5% | +9.4% | -2.8% | -1.6% | +1.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $635M | $998M | $753M | $767M | $704M | — |
| Total debt | $3.32B | $3.30B | $3.31B | $2.86B | $2.86B | — |
Fiscal years end Oct. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 26, 2026)
P/E 33.8x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈110.6x · P/S 0.9x · EV/EBITDA 16.1x · EV/Sales 1.1x · P/FCF 14.8x · P/B 1.5x · FCF yield 6.74% · Earnings yield 2.96% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 5.53% · Net debt $1.99B · EV $13.6B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Oct 2025 24.9x, Oct 2024 20.8x, Oct 2023 22.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold HRL. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.77% | $84.3M | Reduced -0.6% |
| Bill Gates | Gates Foundation Trust | 0.15% | $51.8M | Unchanged |
| Thomas Russo | Gardner Russo & Quinn | 0.01% | $459K | Reduced -2.6% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Bhojwani Gary C. | Director | 20,200 | $495K | 24.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $201K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Newlands William A | Director | 10,000 | $201K | 20.1 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 25.31 (low 23, high 29).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $30 → $28 |
| 2026-10-07 | BNP Paribas | Target lowered | Neutral | $26 → $23 |
| 2026-08-28 | BNP Paribas | Target lowered | Neutral | $27 → $26 |
| 2026-08-14 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $25 → $26 |
| 2026-07-14 | BNP Paribas | Target raised | Neutral | $26 → $27 |
| 2026-07-09 | Stephens & Co. | Reiterated | Equal-Weight | $25 |
| 2026-06-30 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Neutral | $25 → $27 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -6.7% | -40.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | -6.7% | -9.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 29.8% | 25.0% |
| Max drawdown | -26.7% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -58.2% (Apr 2022→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Packaged Foods)
MICC (The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.) USD 19.05 -1.75% · MKC-V (McCormick & Company, Incorporat) USD 48.37 -1.73% · JBS (JBS N.V.) USD 12.42 +0.40% · SJM (The J.M. Smucker Company) USD 129.98 -2.56% · DAR (Darling Ingredients Inc.) USD 56.24 +1.08% · LW (Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.) USD 53.83 -2.45%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/HRL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in HRL's own 10-K filed 2025-12-05 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Walmart (WMT) | "Sales to the Company's largest customer, Walmart Inc. and its subsidiaries (Walmart), accounted for 15.6 percent of consolidated gross sales less returns and allowances during fiscal 2025." |
| Customer | Oracle (ORCL) | "The Company is in the midst of a multi-year transformation project to achieve better analytics, customer service, and process efficiencies through the use of Oracle Cloud Solutions." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-07-26)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | $1.78B | 60.1% | -4.3% |
| Foodservice | $1.00B | 33.9% | +1.6% |
| International | $178.7M | 6.0% | -4.7% |
| Total revenue | $2.96B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-07-26)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perishable | $2.19B | 73.9% | -1.5% |
| Shelf-stable | $772.5M | 26.1% | -4.7% |
| Total revenue | $2.96B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-10-26)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $11.44B | 94.5% | +1.4% |
| Non Us | $669.1M | 5.5% | +5.1% |
| Total revenue | $12.11B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-10-26: 15.6% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2025-12-05).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $0.37 | $0.40 | -6.2% | $3.18B | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $0.37 | $0.37 | -0.0% | $3.04B | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-10-31) | $1.48 | $1.49 | -0.6% | $12.13B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-10-31) | $1.57 | $1.56 | +0.4% | $12.35B | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 6 | 15.9% | ±1.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 13 | 24.9% | ±3.9% |
| 2026-11-13 | 20 | 25.3% | ±5.0% |
| 2026-11-20 | 27 | 24.5% | ±5.8% |
| 2026-11-27 | 34 | 22.9% | ±5.7% |
| 2026-12-04 | 41 | 34.1% | ±9.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 55 | 25.3% | ±8.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 83 | 28.0% | ±11.2% |