# Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/HTH · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH), nexqual.com/HTH" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 37.28 (+2.14% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 36.5 · day 36.88–37.52 · 52w 31.75–40.41 · market cap $2.14B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.28B, net income $162M (12.7% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 13.2x (avg 16.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Analysts: Sell (mean 3.50 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 41 (range 40–42).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +17.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +19.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD 0.55, revenue estimate $322M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.83B | $1.29B | $1.20B | $1.19B | $1.28B | $1.28B |
| Net income | $374M | $113M | $110M | $113M | $166M | $162M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.61 | $1.60 | $1.69 | $1.74 | $2.64 | — |
| Free cash flow | $741M | $1.18B | $435M | $267M | -$55.5M | -$123M |
| Net margin | 20.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 12.7% |
| Revenue growth | -13.3% | -29.6% | -7.4% | -0.6% | +7.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $3.05B | $1.65B | $1.92B | $2.37B | $1.25B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 13.2x · P/S 1.7x · P/B 1.0x · FCF yield -5.75% · Earnings yield 7.57% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.14% · Buyback yield (TTM) 9.85%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 12.9x, Dec 2024 16.4x, Dec 2023 20.9x.

## Analysts
Consensus Sell (mean 3.50 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 41 (low 40, high 42).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Raymond James | Downgrade | Market Perform → Underperform |  |
| 2026-08-05 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $40 → $42 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +17.4% | +19.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +17.5% | +3.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 21.7% | 26.1% |
| Max drawdown | -13.5% (Feb 2026→Mar 2026) | -33.7% (Jan 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Financial Conglomerates)
VOYA (Voya Financial, Inc.) USD 98.42 +2.16% · FRHC (Freedom Holding Corp.) USD 167.49 -2.76% · TMS (Teamshares Inc.) USD 5.01 +1.73% · IX (ORIX Corporation) USD 36.72 -0.78%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/HTH · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Advisory Management & Administrative Service | $44.2M | — | +1.1% |
| Mortgage Loan Origination Fees | $30.3M | — | +5.4% |
| Investment Advice | $25.3M | — | -6.0% |
| Asset Management1 | $12.0M | — | +12.4% |
| Commissions | $11.7M | — | +27.3% |
| Money Market & Bank Insured Fund Fees | $10.3M | — | +24.4% |
| Principal Transactions Commissions & Fees Other | $9.1M | — | +20.1% |
| Underwriting | $5.5M | — | +10.9% |
| Deposit Account | $4.8M | — | +8.6% |
| Trust Fees | $3.4M | — | +12.6% |
| Investment Advisory Management & Administrative Service Other | $1.4M | — | +18.7% |
| Total revenue | — | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-22)

- "These conditions, coupled with exposure to changes in funding costs, inflationary pressures, elevated energy prices, and international armed conflicts and their impact on supply chains within our business segments during the third quarter of 2026 have had, and are expected to continue to have, an adverse impact on our operating results during the remainder of 2026. ​ Jeremy B."
- "(6) Net gains from mortgage loans sold to third parties reflects provisions for anticipated indemnification claims and penalties for early payoff of loans which had the effect of lowering such net gains from mortgage loans sold to third parties by 5, 8, 7, 8 and 9 basis points, respectively, for the periods presented."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.55 | $0.60 | -9.2% | $322.5M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.48 | $0.52 | -7.7% | $301.7M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.44 | $2.38 | +2.7% | $1.26B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.48 | $2.40 | +3.0% | $1.29B | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 58.3% | ±13.9% |