# Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/HWM · data as of 2026-10-22 20:02 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM), nexqual.com/HWM" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 193.29 (-7.14% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 208.15 · day 190.32–203 · 52w 188.83–310 · market cap $77.1B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $9.12B, net income $1.87B (20.5% margin), free cash flow $1.79B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 41.2x (avg 41.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 29.0x, net debt $3.94B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold HWM (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $11.3M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($11.3M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.95 on a 1–5 scale) (22 analysts), mean target USD 324.55 (range 255–377).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -3.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +543.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 1.37, revenue estimate $2.59B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.97B | $5.66B | $6.64B | $7.43B | $8.25B | $9.12B |
| Operating income | $748M | $919M | $1.20B | $1.63B | $2.05B | $2.50B |
| Net income | $258M | $469M | $765M | $1.16B | $1.51B | $1.87B |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.59 | $1.11 | $1.83 | $2.81 | $3.71 | — |
| Free cash flow | $250M | $540M | $682M | $977M | $1.43B | $1.79B |
| Operating margin | 15.0% | 16.2% | 18.1% | 22.0% | 24.8% | 27.4% |
| Net margin | 5.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 18.3% | 20.5% |
| Revenue growth | -5.5% | +13.9% | +17.3% | +11.9% | +11.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $720M | $791M | $610M | $564M | $742M | — |
| Total debt | $4.23B | $4.16B | $3.71B | $3.31B | $3.05B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 41.2x · P/S 8.5x · EV/EBITDA 29.0x · EV/Sales 8.9x · P/FCF 43.0x · P/B 13.4x · FCF yield 2.32% · Earnings yield 2.43% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.30% · Net debt $3.94B · EV $81.0B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 55.2x, Dec 2024 38.8x, Dec 2023 29.4x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold HWM. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 1.06% | $123M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Marchuk Neil Edward | EVP, CAO | 41,932 | $11.3M | 39.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.95 on a 1–5 scale), 22 analysts; mean target USD 324.55 (low 255, high 377).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $350 → $300 |
| 2026-10-09 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $320 → $280 |
| 2026-09-30 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $315 → $255 |
| 2026-09-15 | Guggenheim | Initiated | Buy | $350 |
| 2026-08-24 | Bernstein | Target raised | Outperform | $318 → $328 |
| 2026-08-10 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $310 → $350 |
| 2026-08-10 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $300 → $340 |
| 2026-08-07 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $299 → $326 |
| 2026-08-07 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $325 → $350 |
| 2026-08-07 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $330 → $340 |
| 2026-07-27 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $300 → $325 |
| 2026-07-13 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $300 → $320 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -3.2% | +543.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -3.2% | +45.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 34.6% | 31.3% |
| Max drawdown | -34.0% (Aug 2026→Oct 2026) | -33.2% (Aug 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
NOC (Northrop Grumman Corporation) USD 552.35 +2.42% · GD (General Dynamics Corporation) USD 350.79 +1.76% · TDG (Transdigm Group Incorporated) USD 1,141.74 +1.09% · HONA (Honeywell Aerospace Inc.) USD 163.02 +0.34% · LHX (L3Harris Technologies, Inc.) USD 254.23 +2.70% · LMT (Lockheed Martin Corporation) USD 589.91 +6.96%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/HWM · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in HWM's own 10-K filed 2026-02-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Alcoa Corp (AA) | "The remaining guarantee, which had a fair value of $5 and $6 as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, relates to a long-term energy supply agreement that expires in 2047 at an Alcoa Corporation facility, for which…" |
| Partner | STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC. (SWK) | "On December 22, 2025, the Company entered into an agreement with Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. ("Stanley Black & Decker") to acquire Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing, LLC ("CAM"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Stanley …" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engine Products | $1.37B | 53.9% | +32.3% |
| Fastening Systems | $589.0M | 23.1% | +36.7% |
| Forged Wheels | $316.0M | 12.4% | +14.5% |
| Engineered Structures | $269.0M | 10.6% | -12.7% |
| Total revenue | $2.55B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aerospace - Commercial | $770.0M | 30.2% | +37.0% |
| Gas Turbines | $321.0M | 12.6% | +37.8% |
| Aerospace - Defense | $250.0M | 9.8% | +16.8% |
| Other | $32.0M | 1.3% | +10.3% |
| Total revenue | $2.55B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 53.9% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNITED STATES | $4.38B | 53.0% | +17.9% |
| Other Geographical Regions | $1.02B | 12.4% | +9.0% |
| France | $625.0M | 7.6% | -7.8% |
| Japan | $513.0M | 6.2% | +44.5% |
| Germany | $439.0M | 5.3% | -4.1% |
| UK | $376.0M | 4.6% | +7.4% |
| Italy | $264.0M | 3.2% | -8.0% |
| Canada | $187.0M | 2.3% | +7.5% |
| Mexico | $166.0M | 2.0% | -24.5% |
| Poland | $150.0M | 1.8% | -1.3% |
| China | $130.0M | 1.6% | +26.2% |
| Total revenue | $8.25B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 14%, 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.37 | $1.26 | +8.7% | $2.59B | 19 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.42 | $1.32 | +7.7% | $2.67B | 17 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $5.34 | $5.06 | +5.6% | $10.11B | 22 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $6.50 | $6.05 | +7.5% | $11.54B | 20 |